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Setting The Pick – Three Raptors Futures To Consider
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We are officially back!
After a long offseason, with an Olympic break to keep basketball fans afloat, the wait is finally over.
The NBA’s preseason has arrived.
Every team has gone through their Media Days, and excitement levels couldn’t be higher. It’s that first day of school energy.
The Raptors had several new faces to put on the podium; only five players from their 15-man roster attended last year’s Media Day.
Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley said the right things and seemed motivated to prove themselves this season.
Raptors President Masai Ujiri held expectations in check after previously being reluctant to initiate a rebuild.
During this year’s Media Day, he finally acknowledged that reality.
As mentioned in his press conference, this is year one of the rebuild, so what can fans and bettors expect from this season?
Here are three Raptors-related futures I want to flag ahead of NBA preseason.
RAPTORS WIN TOTAL SET AT 29.5
I’m going to cop out with this blurb and not take a position.
In the inaugural year of this rebuild, there are too many variables that can derail this bet.
Injuries to key players led to last season’s collapse.
Tanking will be a risk considering the quality of this upcoming draft.
Over half of their 10-man rotation have under five years of NBA experience.
There are less volatile season-long wagers to make elsewhere in the NBA.
What I want to do in this blurb is spotlight what I consider the most glowing observation if you’re pro-Raptors this year.
In the 14 games that Barnes, Quickley, Barrett and Jakob Poeltl shared the court, they had a plus-65 net rating across 234 minutes played.
They held a .500 record during that stretch beating teams like Cleveland, Golden State, and Indiana.
Judging by the track record of all the stakeholders involved, this isn’t a franchise that’s comfortable with losing.
Ujiri has been stubborn throughout his career about intentionally losing games.
Head coach, Darko Rajakovic, is fighting for his NBA coaching life. There are no guarantees he gets another opportunity and needs to overachieve to maintain his spot with Toronto.
Finally with the core players on this team, they all have something to prove this season.
Getting to 30 wins isn’t a high watermark.
That would still have them drafting in the lottery.
If you look across the league, there are enough bottom-feeder teams that Toronto can get wins over.
If healthy, this is a competitive closing five with plenty of room for growth.
They have a better chance of finishing at 40 wins than 20.
RJ BARRETT MOST IMPROVED PLAYER, 35-TO-1
When this market was first opened by FanDuel, they had Barrett listed at 150-to-1 to win Most Improved Player.
If you open the app today, you’ll see that number has cratered down to 35-to-1.
Barrett’s MIP price drop is the steepest of all NBA players heading into this season.
He’s 15th in line according to the odds with two other Raptors ahead of him.
Between the three stars of this team, I think IQ has the most realistic path to this award and is fairly priced at 24-to-1.
His role takes a much bigger leap than Barrett’s with both coming from New York.
Additionally, his massive contract extension is a major vote of confidence from the Raptors organization; they want him to be the co-star beside Barnes.
Barrett’s case is more subtle but it’s the underlying success he had in his half-season with Toronto that should pique your interest.
The loudest stat was his shooting percentage in New York versus Toronto. He was shooting 42.3 per cent from the field before getting traded.
In his 32 games with Toronto, a significant sample size, that ballooned to 55.3 per cent.
Was this a fluke? If not, what changed?
His shot selection drastically improved after joining Toronto.
Over his five seasons with New York, he took roughly 7 per cent of his shots from long mid-range.
In those 32 games with Toronto, that number dipped all the way to 1 per cent. He essentially removed that completely from his shot diet.
Everything moved closer to the rim. He took over half of his attempts at the basket, the first time he’s done that in his career.
Additionally, all of his counting stats would’ve been career-highs (21.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.1 apg). That’s with him and Barnes sharing the court in 23-of-32 games.
Quickley is the flashy MIP pick from Toronto. Barnes is too high profiled after making his first All-Star team last season.
Barrett is the sneaky MIP choice.
The market has adjusted accordingly.
The Play – Barrett MIP, 35-to-1
QUICKLEY TO AVERAGE 7+ ASSISTS PER GAME, +110
Last season, Quickley logged 38 games with the Raptors finishing just short of this prop line at 6.8 apg.
In his previous four seasons with New York, he had never come close to this number as a microwave scorer off the bench.
In fact, he’s only logged 10 career games above seven dimes.
But with the Raptors, he’s a new man. His responsibilities are completely different as Toronto’s point guard of the future.
You might look at the depth chart and have concerns that Davion Mitchell or Jamal Shead could eat into his minutes.
Though they’re listed as point guards, their contributions are primarily on the defensive end. They’re not being asked to shoulder the floor general responsibilities like Quickley is.
What makes IQ’s stats last year so impressive was his production being thrown onto the court mid-season.
He’s the biggest benefactor from having a full offseason, getting to work with both the coaching staff and his teammates on how to run the offence.
The other reason I’m optimistic is the potential two-man game he could run with Poeltl.
Over the 18 games he shared the floor with the Austrian, 18.6 per cent of his assists came off his makes.
Having a centre who shoots at a 66 per cent clip from the field does wonders for the dimes.
This bet is obviously injury dependent like all things related to the Raps this season.
But if they get 50+ games together, IQ has a great shot at averaging 7+ dimes this year.
The Play – Quickley to average 7.0 or more assists per game, +110