Setting The Pick – Three Win Totals To Consider

The NBA preseason has begun, and fans got their first glimpse of new faces in different places.  

Several rookies took the court for the first time.  

Old veterans found themselves wearing new jerseys.  

A bunch of teams that pushed their chips into the middle seem ready to anoint themselves as legitimate contenders. 

This season promises to be a year of parity for those fighting to win the chip while the bottom-feeding teams will be draft-focused with such a promising class in 2025.  

With those factors in mind, let’s dive into my three favourite win totals on FanDuel for this upcoming season.  

WASHINGTON WIZARDS UNDER 20.5 WINS (-104) 

Let’s have some fun and open with my Debbie downer pick of the season.  

I don’t think Washington will just go under this line; I think they’ll wrap up 2024-25 with the worst record in the NBA.  

With Cooper Flagg leading this upcoming draft, the Wizards seem destined to push for the generational talent.  

Washington clearly isn’t a playoff team so for the long-term benefit of the franchise, they should be highly motivated to lose games.  

Even if they weren’t, this roster is devoid of winning players.  

Looking at their projected starting five, the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, Alexandre Sarr, is facing a steep learning curve based on his performances in Summer League and preseason.  

Second-year Frenchman, Bilal Coulibaly, has flashed potential as a solid perimeter defender but still lacks the shooting touch to avoid being a liability on offence.  

Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma have demonstrated their abilities as volume scorers, but both sat in the bottom 30 per cent of effective field-goal percentage (terrible from your two leading scorers).  

Then there’s the 32-year-old, Jonas Valanciunias, who has grown increasingly limited on both ends of the floor and could very well be a trade chip come February.  

To add insult to injury, one of their more competent players, Malcolm Brogdon, will miss the first month of the year.  

The Wizards wrapped up last season with 15 wins losing Daniel Gafford at the deadline. 

In the summer, they lost Deni Avdija and Tyus Jones, further depleting their roster. 

This will be a developmental season for Washington – they have two solid rookies in Sarr and Bub Carrington, plus Coulibaly who has plenty of future promise.  

Winning is simply not a priority right now.  

In their most recent preseason game versus New York, Washington turned the ball over 30 times.  

Combine that with their third-worst defensive rating from last season and you get a recipe for a lot of losses. 

HOUSTON ROCKETS OVER 43.5 WINS (-108) 

Every year, there’s one up-and-coming team that takes a major leap above expectations.  

This year, I’m betting on the Rockets to be those guys.  

In 2023-24, the Oklahoma City Thunder crushed their win total by 12.5 wins.  

Three years ago, the Grizzlies jumped from 38 to 56 wins.  

Houston has a lot of the components needed to take a similar leap.  

As one of the youngest teams in the NBA, the improvements they made during last season are very encouraging.  

Prior to the All-Star Break, they had the 16th-best net rating and sat six games below .500.  

In the second half, they flipped the script putting together an 11-game winning streak finishing with the seventh-best record in the Western Conference. 

Two years ago, this was a 22-win franchise figuring out life post-James Harden. 

Last year, they made three key acquisitions adding stability to their young core – Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and head coach, Ime Udoka.  

Houston went from the second-worst defensive rating to the 10th-best last year.  

Their offence jumped up seven spots led by the organic growth of Alperen Sengun.  

Considering the average age of their rotation, it’s reasonable to expect continued organic growth. Their career trajectories are on the rise as opposed to aging rosters like the Clippers or the Lakers. 

This bet is heavily anchored on my belief that Udoka is a proven developmental coach.  
 
His track record with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown cannot be ignored.  

Don’t forget he was at the helm when Boston went from a .500 team in January of 2022-23 to an NBA Finals appearance. 

This team is hungry and Udoka clarified that on Media Day stating the playoffs as their goal. 

Their youth will help them win regular season games as older rosters load manage their players.  

Houston arguably has one of the five best 10-deep rosters in the league. 

PHOENIX SUNS OVER 46.5 WINS (-118) 

Often times, the best bet is to zig when everyone else is zagging.  

I’m confident this year’s Suns will be better than the last.  

The discourse on this team always skews negative regardless of what the reality is on the court.  

For as great of a scorer as he is, Kevin Durant has had a bullseye on his back for years.  

To this day, how he ended up with two championships continues to discredit his on-court impact.  

Last season was close to the worst-case scenario for Phoenix, yet they eked out 49 wins.  

Injuries plagued them right from the get-go and it took 23 games into the season before their Big-3 took the court together for the first time. 

They ended up playing just 41 times together, half of the regular season.  

During that span, they held a 26-15 record, good for a 52-win pace. 

Considering their injury history, you have to assume all three will miss 10+ games this season.  
 
But it’s not unreasonable to expect 50-60 games played together as a baseline. 

At the time of this article, all three players are healthy heading into the season unlike last year. 

The two additional factors that should have you encouraged is their depth and new coach. 

Last season, the Suns never rostered a true point guard and had six players on minimum contracts. 

Signing Tyus Jones on his 1-year, $3 million contract (a player who’s market value is much higher) is a major game-changer coming into 2024-25.  

Phoenix also snagged Monte Morris in free agency, another reliable PG who can orchestrate the offence. 

Another position of concern is centre with Jusuf Nurkic primarily holding down the fort.  

The Suns once again might’ve found gold in the bargain bin with Mason Plumlee coming off the bench. 

This is a player that’s one season removed from averaging 12.2 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 3.7 apg before getting dealt to Los Angeles.  

He’s a solid upgrade over Drew Eubanks from last year.  

Additionally, rookie Ryan Dunn is a player to keep an eye out on. 

He was overlooked by most teams during this draft due to his limited offensive game. But he was a college All-Defensive Team player filling in a critical role for this Suns squad. 

With the Big-3, they don’t need more scoring. Phoenix needs help on the defensive end. 

Transitioning to coach Mike Budenholzer, his regular season track record speaks for itself.  

The two-time Coach of the Year has had two successful stints with Atlanta and Milwaukee amassing a lifetime .604 winning percentage.  

He’s proven he can work with superstar egos and implement a structure that mirrors his players on-court. 

Injuries will ultimately be the driving factor of this bet going the other way.