Setting The Pick – Trade deadline fallout

The 2024-25 NBA trade deadline was simply the craziest of all-time.  

26 of 30 teams were involved in transactions.  

Numerous All-NBA and All-Star players were moved around the association. 

When the history books are written, the Luka Doncic trade will be discussed as a paradigm shifting moment for the sport.  

What will eventually get lost is the shock it caused amongst every stakeholder involved – players, front offices, media insiders, the man who broke the news himself, Shams Charania.  

If the NBA wanted attention, it got it.  

Pivoting to things from a betting lens, opportunities are aplenty with so many moving parts to dissect. 

How will new players fit in?  

Who will step up for vacated roles left behind?  

How will the standings be re-shuffled?  

There are an infinite number of questions to answer, but for today’s article, let’s use win totals as an anchor to spotlight six movers at the deadline.  

Los Angeles Lakers 

Pre-Trade Win Total – 46.5 

As the trade news broke, many pundits were questioning the short-term fit of Doncic beside LeBron James thinking LA was worse off this season.  

Toss that into the garbage.  

The Lakers went from having a Top-10 guy at best to one of the three best closers in the NBA.  

Fit doesn’t apply when your ceiling has been raised so significantly.  

In addition to Doncic, LA went out and sacrificed their future to acquire Mark Williams from Charlotte to address the hole left behind by Anthony Davis.  

From a betting standpoint, I’d put more weight into their shortened odds as championship contenders versus any regular-season success. 

The team has 33 games to go – more than enough time to build chemistry ahead of a potentially long playoff run. 

Do I expect growing pains? 100 percent.  

But I’ll call it right now – if they end up facing Houston or Memphis in the first-round, bet LA to move on even as the lower seed. 

The Pick: Lakers First-Round Series Winner 

Dallas Mavericks 

Pre-Trade Win Total – 45.5 

Mavericks General Manager, Nico Harrison, declared their team “positioned to win now and win in the future” during his press-conference after the Doncic trade.  

He’s given himself a terribly short leash to justify this move.  

Prior to the trade, Dallas was 26-23 sitting in the ninth-seed. 

They lost their next two games before emphatically beating the defending champion Celtics with AD on the bench looking on.  

While they didn’t make any significant moves after trading away their franchise player, the current roster has the pieces to be competitive. 

They have depth at every position and a good mix of defensive-minded wings and capable three-point shooters to partner with Kyrie Irving and AD.  

Lost in all the shock of Doncic being traded – Davis began the season on a blistering pace.  

Over the first 10 games of the year, AD led the league in scoring as the focal point of LA’s offence.  

Irving should continue to get him easy look around the rim as he’s done for Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. 

What AD quietly brings to the Mavs is his defensive impact which was overshadowed by LA’s weak play from the other four positions. 

Dallas is league-average in defensive rating at the moment; expect them to finish Top-10 by season’s end with AD as their anchor.  

The Pick: DAL over 44.5 wins 

San Antonio Spurs 

Pre-Trade Win Total – 38.5 

Victor Wembanyama has proven he’s ready to win now.  

Some stars need time to develop; Wemby is the exception.  

By acquiring De’Aaron Fox without sacrificing any of their core building blocks, San Antonio’s ceiling instantly climbed up a level.  

Is Fox a championship-level point guard?  

Hard to say so based on his body of work.  

But as a tandem with Wemby moving forward, you have to love the potential fit.  

The West is absolutely loaded, especially after these deadline deals.  

I still believe there’s room for the Spurs to leapfrog both the Kings and Suns who currently sit ninth and tenth.  

They’re only 1.5 games behind.  

The Pick: SAS to make play-in (-110) 

Sacramento Kings 

Pre-Trade Win Total – 42.5 

Considering the corner Sacramento was in with Fox, coming away with Zach LaVine and the plethora of picks they received is a reasonable haul. 

Make no mistake though, Fox will not be easy to replace.  

The current starting five features Malik Monk at point guard, three wings – LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Keegan Murray, and Domantas Sabonis at centre. 

So much of their offence revolved around dribble-handoff action that Fox would run with Sabonis.  

While LaVine is capable of operating that way, an inevitable learning curve is coming. 

It was the same for DeRozan who’s still working on offensive chemistry with his new teammates.  

I worry that the players aren’t as synergistic as other lineups in the West.  

FanDuel seems to be down on them too, they’re priced at -490 to miss the playoffs.  

The Pick: SAC under 41.5 wins 

Golden State Warriors 

Pre-Trade Win Total – 42.5 

There are valid concerns about fit with this mishmash of veterans on Golden State.  

Four of their five starters are older than 32.  

Quinten Post is the lone exception, a rookie centre chosen with the 52nd overall pick. 

All concerns considered; I still think they are capable of one final playoff push. 

Jimmy Butler’s a headcase, Draymond Green is as well, but what they have in common is a proven track-record as winners.  

Even though the Warriors gave up four players in the blockbuster, they still have enough off the bench to field a competent five-man lineup.  

The sneaky wildcard in this all – Jonathan Kuminga is still out with an ankle sprain. 

In a clear win-now move, I’d take the swing on Golden State moving up the West standings.  

Don’t forget Butler wasn’t injured, he was out making coffee.  

He’ll come in fresh for the back half of the regular season and has the basketball IQ to fit in on any team. 

The Pick: GSW over 41.5 wins 

Toronto Raptors 

Pre-Trade Win Total – 26.5 

If you want more Raptors specific analysis, I encourage you to watch TSN’s latest episode of Basketball Island which releases Friday night on YouTube. 

From a betting perspective, I’m encouraging you to standdown.  

On paper, Toronto is way too talented to sit idly and lose games consistently.  

The problem is the front office will now be manipulating the injury report to prepare for the long-term future; lottery balls are on the line.  

By sending out Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, and Davion Mitchell, the team is making space for their younger players to develop and get reps.  

By signing Brandon Ingram, Toronto brings on a former All-Star who instantly becomes the Raptors’ go-to scoring option in clutch time. 

The mystery remains how many games Ingram takes to recover from his current injury. 

My intuition is that the Raptors manage their bodies carefully and are tactical in lineup decisions to wrap 2024-25.  

The Pick: Stay away on TOR win total