Powered by:
Setting The Pick – Who is going to win Rookie of the Year?
Published
Eight different players have been the favourite to win Rookie of the Year on FanDuel at some point this season.
This race has been and will continue to be wide open.
No player has put together a sustained, compelling case.
This class is on pace to be one of the worst this century, in the same breath as the Malcolm Brogdon year of 2016-17.
Perhaps some of these players go on to have very successful careers, but in year one, no one is coming out swinging as we’ve seen in seasons past.
With no clear option, this is a great time to break down the case for each hopeful.
Of all the player awards, ROTY is the only one that feels truly undetermined.
Here are my power rankings of who’s worth betting on, considering their current prices:
1) Stephon Castle, SAS (+290)
Season averages: 11.9 pts (2nd), 2.6 reb (22nd), 3.5 ast (3rd)
Shooting splits: 40.4 / 26.1 / 72.1
Castle is my pick to win this award come Springtime.
It’s a nice bonus that he’s not currently priced as the favourite, though he was back in December.
As it stands, he’s the leading scorer amongst rookies (once Jared McCain is disqualified) and third in assists.
Beyond his numbers in the traditional stat categories, his most noteworthy impact is on the defensive end.
He currently has a -2.1 on/off defensive rating, according to Cleaning The Glass, which is second-best among rookies not qualified at centre.
With many of his minutes alongside phenom Victor Wembanyama, he’s been able to play more aggressive defence on the perimeter.
Of this class, he’s the most capable two-way player.
The knock on him coming out of college was his inefficient shooting, which has carried over.
Pundits will point to his 26.1 percentage from deep and claim he’s not suitable for the modern game.
His true shooting percentage has only marginally improved month-over-month, so if he doesn’t win, that’ll be his Achilles’ heel.
But if he remains in the starting lineup the rest of the way, I think his profile alongside Wemby will have voters leaning his way.
2) Zaccharie Risacher, ATL (+1200)
Season averages: 11.0 pts (5th), 3.5 reb (12th), 1.2 ast (19th)
Shooting splits: 41.3 / 30.2 / 69.3
This is all about price and opportunity.
If you grabbed Risacher shares over the past two weeks, you’d have a +7500 ticket in your hand.
As of today, his price has dropped down to +1200.
With Jalen Johnson now out for the season and Bogdan Bogdanovic's role diminishing, Atlanta is being forced to feature the No. 1 overall pick more in its starting five.
They’ve continued to keep De’Andre Hunter off the bench and instead went with Vit Krejci as their replacement for Johnson.
Coming off a 30-point performance against Cleveland, the steam is flying in on Risacher.
The problem with his case is that there isn’t a single aspect of the game he excels in.
He’s a jack of all trades who is still early in his development, and he's definitely not the most deserving of the class at this point.
But at this price, I’d rather take a swing at the top drafted player and pray his production levels up, given the vacated usage in Atlanta’s lineup.
He’s less than a point per game behind Castle, the leading scorer.
It’s not out of the question that he wraps up as the top scorer in April.
3) Alexandre Sarr, WAS (+950)
Season averages: 11.5 pts (4th), 6.6 reb (3rd), 2.2 ast (7th)
Shooting splits: 39.7 / 30.7 / 64.4
Sarr’s price has been all over the map, going from +4000 in early December to +155 as the favourite earlier in January.
The emergence of Kel’el Ware (the current favourite) has pushed his price back to +750 as FanDuel pits these two big men against each other.
What’s most notable about Sarr is that he’s been remarkably consistent throughout his entire rookie campaign.
He’s averaged above 11.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, and 2.0 apg in each of the past three months.
He’s tied for the lead in blocks amongst rookies (1.6) and is Top 10 league-wide.
The problem with his case is that he plays for the Washington Wizards.
They are the most ‘unserious’ team in the league and are nearly certain to finish with the worst record.
He will be dinged for their team's losing unless he’s leaps and bounds ahead of the pack.
It’s also not as if he has runway for more minutes—he has started all 41 games he has played.
He’ll be accumulating empty calorie stats, and I think the voting for this award has evolved from that level of sophistication.
4) Kel’el Ware, MIA (+145)
Season averages: 8.5 pts (11th), 4.8 reb (5th), 0.6 ast (36th)
Shooting splits: 55.7 / 41.4 / 72.7
I love Ware’s case for the award, but hate how quickly he went from off the board to favourite.
After putting together two eye-popping stat lines as a first-time starter, his price has never looked back.
Two 20-point double-doubles was all it took to become the eighth frontrunner of the year.
His case began as Jimmy Butler’s drama was beginning.
After Butler was ruled out due to illness on December 21st, Ware began seeing consistent bench minutes after playing just 69 minutes total over Miami’s first 25 games.
He began earning the team’s trust off the bench and seized the opportunity, as Butler had missed 16 of the team's last 21 games.
Ware has started five straight games, averaging 14.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.4 bpg.
If he plays at that pace for the remainder of the season, it’s his award to lose.
But my main concern is the fallout of this Jimmy situation.
If Butler stays, he’ll be re-injected into their rotation.
If he’s traded, Miami likely gets some win-now players which would encroach on Ware’s minutes.
The Heat currently sit sixth in the East, hanging on by half a game.
They’re looking to compete and are unlikely to tank the season in favour of his development.
5) Rob Dillingham, MIN (OTB)
Season averages: 5.8 pts (20th), 1.0 reb (36th), 2.1 ast (9th)
Shooting splits: 51.4 / 50.0 / 40.0
If Risacher and Ware’s pricing has taught us anything, ROTY still has room for a longshot to emerge.
When FanDuel puts out a line for Dillingham, be sure to note this article once that happens.
Minnesota made the surprising move on draft night to trade up for the eighth-overall pick to select the 6’1” guard, arguably the second-best bucket-getter in the draft.
It was a confusing move at the time, with Minnesota coming off a Western Conference Final visit.
Things got even more daunting for Dillingham when they traded away Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
Excluding Anthony Edwards, three guards stood ahead of him on the depth chart – Mike Conley, DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
For a win-now team, minutes seemed sparse for the Kentucky product.
Fast-forward to this month, and times were looking dark for Minnesota as they’ve floated around .500 all season.
Conley’s age has started to show as he averages near career lows across the board.
Then, DiVincenzo was diagnosed with a partial tear of the plantar ligament in his toe on January 15th. He was given a three-week window before he’d even be re-evaluated.
Like Ware, Dillingham was a healthy scratch on a nightly basis up until this injury.
But since then, Dillingham has found his way onto the court, putting up a modest 9.8 ppg and 3.0 apg on just 15.7 mpg.
The team has gone 6-2 over this stretch.
Before this run, the Timberwolves had the 17th-highest offensive rating; they’ve been sixth since Dillingham started getting regular minutes.
He might not have a prominent role like some of the other rookies, but he gives this championship-pedigree team a massive shot in the arm off the bench.
His shooting splits are what catches my eye.
In a year like this one, anything can happen.
Why can’t Dillingham become the ninth frontrunner?