Morning Coffee: SGA bolsters MVP bid in Thunder win

Winning the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off Championship united our country in a nationwide celebration.

In the afterglow of that unforgettable victory, Canadians won’t need to search far for another trophy pursuit to rally together behind in the coming weeks.

Toronto’s own Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the betting favourite to win NBA regular season MVP at FanDuel.

Last night, SGA stole the spotlight and strengthened his MVP resume with another epic 51-point performance for the Oklahoma City Thunder in a 137-128 win over the Houston Rockets.

With a little over a month left in the regular season, the MVP conversation is now a two-horse race.

SGA is the clear betting favourite and the most popular pick to win NBA regular season MVP at FanDuel.

Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is still very much in the mix.

While he’s not a lock to win the award, you can bet that Canadians will be cheering on Gilgeous-Alexander as he attempts to become the first Canadian to win MVP since Steve Nash went back-to-back in 2005 and 2006.

We came together in a big way to celebrate Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off and the vibe was electric.

Now it’s time to channel that same energy and cheer on SGA to win NBA regular season MVP.

Oh Canada!

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday March 4th, 2025.

SGA Bolsters MVP Bid In Thunder Win

The case for SGA to win NBA regular season MVP is stronger than the triple-shot of espresso I needed to power up this morning and write this column.

My first day back from vacation hit me harder than the weather adjustment from +30 to -25 Celsius.

Fortunately, I was able to settle in and enjoy another MVP-calibre performance from SGA to get me through another cold Canadian winter night.

Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 51 points as the Thunder secured their 50th win of the season.

SGA now has four 50-point performances over his last 19 games.

It marks the shortest span for a player to record his first four career 50-point games in NBA history.

In addition to four 50-point performances, SGA leads the association in 40-point games (9), 30-point games (37), and 20-point games (59).

His consistency has forced the FanDuel traders to adjust as SGA to record 20+ points continues to be a popular Same Game Parlay leg.

After leading Oklahoma City to back-to-back 50-win seasons for the first time since 2012-14, it’s impossible to overlook SGA as one of basketball’s rising superstars.

SGA’s combination of scoring, efficiency, all-around play and the team’s overall success make for a compelling MVP case.

FanDuel bettors are torn on who will ultimately win the award.

Per FanDuel traders, 23.4 per cent of the handle is on Jokic to win NBA regular season MVP.

22 per cent of the handle is on Gilgeous-Alexander.

Despite that narrow margin, the Canadian is a heavy favourite in FanDuel’s NBA regular season MVP market.

SGA to win NBA regular season MVP is -600 at FanDuel.

That number represents an 85.7 per cent implied probability that he goes on to win the award.

Jokic is +500 to win MVP – a 16.7 per cent probability.

Do I believe that Jokic has a better than 16.7 per cent chance to win NBA regular season MVP based on what he’s done this season?

Yes, absolutely.

Do I believe he will ultimately win the award if SGA continues to produce elite numbers and the Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?

No.

Basketball fans are craving good storylines.

The SGA MVP push is a narrative that most basketball fans can get behind.

All aboard the SGA MVP train!

A FanDuel Best Bet For Tuesday Night

The Indiana Pacers are tied with the Milwaukee Bucks for the fourth seed in the NBA Eastern Conference standings.

The Bucks are a seven-point favourite in Atlanta.

To keep pace with Milwaukee in the standings, the Pacers will likely need to beat the Rockets on their home floor.

Indiana is currently a three-point favourite at FanDuel.

Houston is coming off a hard-fought loss in Oklahoma City and has several players listed as day-to-day, including Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet.

The Pacers have an opportunity to gain some momentum and pick up an important win on their home floor.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers have won six in a row and 12 of their last 14 games overall.

Tonight, they’ll host the New Orleans Pelicans in another important game as they battle the Denver Nuggets for the second seed in the Western Conference and home-court advantage for a potential second-round playoff series.

I’ll lock in a traditional two-team parlay with the Pacers and Lakers to win outright at +114 odds.

Have a great day, everyone!