Morning Coffee: Will the Oilers force a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final?

As the Stanley Cup Final got underway earlier this month, the prevailing sentiment was that the Florida Panthers would win a seven-game series against the Edmonton Oilers to end the 2023-24 NHL season.

That was the most likely conclusion according to FanDuel.

Florida to win in seven was +410 in FanDuel’s exact series outcome market.

Edmonton to win in seven was +550.

At the time, most Panthers fans would have been thrilled by the idea that they would win the Stanley Cup in seven games.

A couple of weeks later, the idea of a seven-game series is something Cats fans are absolutely dreading.

After jumping out to a 3-0 series lead, Florida was -2100 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel.

That number represented a 95.5 per cent implied win probability.

Edmonton was as high as +1700 to win it all down 3-0.

Since then, the Oilers have outscored the Panthers a combined 13-4 in back-to-back victories to force Game 6 in Edmonton tonight.

The Panthers are down to -345 to win the Stanley Cup.

The Oilers are -120 to force a Game 7 with a win tonight and +270 to win it all.

What does Connor McDavid have in store for tonight?

Can Sergei Bobrovsky get back to the level he played at earlier in the series?

Who will emerge as the hero in Game 6?

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday, June 21st, 2024.

Will The Oilers Force A Game 7 In The Stanley Cup Final?

Six of the last eight Stanley Cup champions have clinched on the road.

McDavid and the Oilers are intent on making sure that trend doesn’t continue tonight.

Edmonton is the fourth team to force a Game 6 after trailing 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final.

Two of the previous three went on to force a Game 7.

What are the odds the Stanley Cup Final goes the distance?

The Oilers are -120 to win Game 6 at FanDuel.

For those wondering, that number represents a 54.6 per cent implied probability.

Per the FanDuel traders, 58 per cent of the bets are on the Panthers to win tonight.

Despite those betting splits, Edmonton remains a small favourite to win Game 6 on home ice.

For the Oilers to have a chance, they’ll need the best hockey player on the planet to continue to produce at an elite level.

McDavid has elevated his game to another level with Edmonton facing elimination in the series.

The Oilers captain is the first player in NHL history to register at least four points in back-to-back games in the Stanley Cup Final.

Only Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux have recorded more points in a single postseason.

The sentiment around this year’s Conn Smythe Trophy odds reflects McDavid’s dominance.

McDavid could be found as high as +1700 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy when Edmonton trailed 3-0.

After rewriting the Stanley Cup Playoffs record books while leading the Oilers to consecutive wins, McDavid is an overwhelmingly popular choice to win the Conn Smythe Trophy regardless of the series outcome.

In fact, McDavid’s odds to win the Conn Smythe Trophy have been cut from -150 to -330 over the past 48 hours.

Even though they can get Edmonton to win the Stanley Cup at significantly longer odds, FanDuel bettors continue to wager on McDavid to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.

It’s a testament to the fact that so many believe McDavid will win that award even if Florida wins the Stanley Cup.

To win it all, the Panthers will need their veteran goaltender to perform at the same level he did in the first two games of the series when he emerged as the early favourite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.

After stopping 50 of the first 51 shots that he faced in the series, Bobrovsky has allowed 12 goals in his last three starts, including getting pulled in Game 4.

It would certainly help if Florida responded with the intensity it showed in the second half of Game 5.

Meanwhile, special teams have been a major liability for the Panthers in the series.

Florida is 1-for-16 on the power play in the Stanley Cup Final.

They’ve allowed more shorthanded goals (2) than they’ve scored (1) with the man advantage.

Meanwhile, the Oilers have scored at even-strength, on the power play, and shorthanded in consecutive games.

In Game 5, Edmonton went 2-for-5 on the power play and scored a shorthanded goal in a game that was 4-3 late in the third period before McDavid sealed the win with an empty-net goal.

Considering how dominant the Oilers have looked with the man advantage, the Panthers cannot afford to give them five power plays again tonight.

As somebody who picked Florida to win the series at -128 before the Stanley Cup Final got underway, it’s tempting to hedge with a bet on Edmonton to win Game 6 at -120 or to win the Stanley Cup at +270.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet for Game 6, I’m going to lock in a Same Game Parlay that is 4-for-4 so far in the Stanley Cup Final.

The SGP is Carter Verhaeghe and Vladimir Tarasenko to both record 2+ shots on goal at -130 odds.

Verhaeghe has registered at least two shots on goal in each of the first five games of the series.

He’s recorded three or more in three of the five games.

Meanwhile, Tarasenko has been an absolute stud when it comes to FanDuel’s shots on goal market.

He’s recorded at least two shots on goal in all five games.

That stretch includes 11 shots on goal in the previous three games.

Coming off back-to-back losses, I expect the Panthers to respond with their best effort of the series and test Stuart Skinner with as many shots on goal as possible.

The FanDuel Best Bet is an SGP with Verhaeghe 2+ shots on goal and Tarasenko 2+ shots on goal at -130 odds.

Hopefully, Verhaeghe and Tarasenko could deliver again tonight and make this SGP 5-for-5 in the series, regardless of the final score.

Hopefully, we get an epic Game 6 tonight.

Have a great weekend, everyone!