Morning Coffee: Leafs inch closer to Atlantic title with win over Lightning

​Dallas Mavericks fans need a timeout from reality.

As if their GM’s decision to trade the team’s superstar to a rival within their own conference, slam the door shut on a championship window, and set the franchise back years wasn’t bad enough, they had to deal with getting torched by Luka Doncic in their own building last night.

Doncic matched a season-high with 45 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and four steals in his return to Dallas as the Los Angeles Lakers cruised to the win and cover as a 4.5-point favourite in a 112-97 victory.

Luka Magic became just the second player in NBA history to produce a 45-point game for and against the same team within a single season, joining Wilt Chamberlain.

His 45 points were the third-most by any player in their first road game against their former team in NBA history.

We all understood from the outset that Nico Harrison’s decision to trade Doncic to the Lakers was always going to be a slam dunk straight into the trash can.

The fact that Mavericks fans had to sit through another ugly loss to a rival team in his emotional return to a city that he truly loved to play in and never wanted to leave in the first place adds another layer to one of the worst trades in NBA history.

I don’t see how it gets any better in Dallas anytime soon.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday April 10th, 2025.

Maple Leafs tighten grip on Atlantic Crown with win over Lightning

The Toronto Maple Leafs travelled to Florida with the opportunity to quiet their critics and all but lock up first place in the Atlantic Division.

For a moment, it looked like it could go south in a hurry.

Fortunately, all it took was a 22-year-old former second-round pick to step up with a hat-trick last night to get the train back on the tracks with an important two points.

Matthew Knies completed his second career hat-trick with the overtime winner that propelled the Maple Leafs to a 4-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Knies became the seventh player in franchise history to complete a hat-trick in the extra frame and the first since Mats Sundin did it in 2006.

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner combined for six points.

Anthony Stolarz stopped 25 of the 28 shots he faced.

Toronto improved to 4-0 versus Tampa Bay this season.

It’s the first time the Maple Leafs have swept a four-game season series against the Lightning since 2011-12.

Toronto also reached the 100-point milestone for the fourth consecutive season – tied with the Colorado Avalanche for the longest active streak in the NHL.

The blue and white also moved three points clear of Tampa Bay for first place in the Atlantic Division with four games remaining for both teams.

With 71 per cent of the handle on the Maple Leafs to win the division at FanDuel, it was a good night for anybody who is in that majority.

With the victory, Toronto’s odds to win the Atlantic shifted from -240 all the way to -750 at FanDuel.

Tampa Bay’s odds ballooned from +170 to +470.

The Maple Leafs are on the precipice of clinching their third division title in the expansion era, getting the best possible first-round playoff match-up on paper, and locking up home-ice advantage for at least the first two rounds of the postseason.

Then there’s the fact that Toronto managed to pull out the win in a game that Leafs Nation has been conditioned to lose in recent seasons.

What role will that play in the mentality of the team and its fans once the playoffs roll around?

Keep in mind, the Maple Leafs closed at +136 at FanDuel ahead of Tuesday night’s loss to the Florida Panthers.

They got as high as +164 and settled at +152 at FanDuel just prior to puck drop last night in Tampa.

Despite the win, Toronto is still +1400 as the 10th choice to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel this morning.

To put that number in perspective, the Lightning are +1000 to win the Stanley Cup despite getting swept by the Maple Leafs this season.

Toronto to win 1+ playoff series is -136 at FanDuel.

The Buds are +310 to win 2+ playoff series and +650 to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

Matthews, Marner and company might have quieted their critics for the moment with a crucial victory.

That doesn’t mean the betting public – or Leafs Nation – is ready to believe they can navigate their way to a Stanley Cup win.

The good news is that Toronto took an important step in the right direction with another win over Tampa Bay.

The fact that they won a game so many expected them to lose is a positive sign that should generate momentum with the Stanley Cup Playoffs right around the corner.

Jets fly to Dallas for tilt with Stanley Cup favourite

Speaking of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Winnipeg Jets travel for a Western Conference showdown against the favourite to win it all in the Dallas Stars tonight.

The Jets ended the longest win streak this NHL season when they beat the St. Louis Blues 3-1 on Monday night.

Despite that victory, Winnipeg’s odds to win the Stanley Cup climbed from +900 to +1000 over the past 24 hours.

Now they’ll be an underdog against a Dallas team that remains the favourite to win it all at +600 at FanDuel.

The Stars should have a little added motivation based on tonight’s opponent and the fact that they are coming off one of the worst collapses in NHL history the other night.

Are the Jets undervalued at +1000 to win it all?

As somebody who is higher on the Colorado Avalanche and the Vegas Golden Knights, which beat Winnipeg in the first round of the playoffs in each of the previous two seasons, I’d argue that +1000 is a fair price.

Is Dallas being overrated at +600 to win it all?

Considering their recent form and the fact that they’ll have to beat the Avalanche just to get out of the first round, I’m not interested in betting the Stars at their current price.

Meanwhile, the Jets can inch closer to locking up the Presidents’ Trophy with a win tonight.

Connor Hellebuyck could add to his case as the second choice to win the Hart Trophy at FanDuel behind Leon Draisaitl.

Winnipeg is three points clear of the Washington Capitals atop the NHL standings with one more game played.

FanDuel has the Jets at -310 to win that award.

Washington is +126 to beat the Carolina Hurricanes on home ice tonight and +270 to win the Presidents’ Trophy.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night

The NBA best bets went 2-0 on Wednesday when Doncic led the Lakers to a win and the former Maverick Davis recorded a double-double in a losing cause.

However, my MLB best bet didn’t fare as well as the Toronto Blue Jays upset the Boston Red Sox for their third straight win at Fenway Park.

Toronto is even-money to complete the sweep in Boston this afternoon.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet for tonight, I’ll lock in an NHL Same Game Parlay with Alex Laferriere to record 2+ shots on goal and the Los Angeles Kings to beat the Anaheim Ducks tonight at -122 odds.

The Kings are an NHL-best 29-5-4 on home ice.

They can extend their lead over the Edmonton Oilers for second place in the Pacific Division standings with another win over the Ducks tonight.

Meanwhile, Laferriere ranks second on the Kings with an average of 2.67 shots on goal per game over the last 14 days.

More importantly, he’s averaged 4.0 shots on goal with three points in three games versus Anaheim this season.

I’ll lock in an SGP with Laferriere 2+ shots on goal and the Kings to win outright at -122 as my FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s NHL action.

Enjoy the games, everyone!