Morning Coffee: Maple Leafs, Bruins Game 5 odds
Published
The Toronto Maple Leafs were even-money to beat the Boston Bruins in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at FanDuel.
10 days later, it seems like most of Leafs Nation is already looking forward to next season.
The odds are stacked against the Maple Leafs heading into Game 5 tonight in Boston.
Coming off back-to-back losses on home ice, Toronto’s odds to advance to the second round have ballooned from -110 to +740 at FanDuel.
That current number implies the Maple Leafs have just an 11.9 per cent chance to win the series.
Based on the overall sentiment surrounding the team since a Game 4 loss on Saturday night, I’m not sure many Leafs fans believe their chances to advance are that good.
Regardless of the attitude surrounding the team, the Buds have a unique opportunity in front of them.
Forget about having nothing to lose.
Could you imagine the reaction if Toronto somehow defied the odds and won this series in seven games?
I get it.
There’s nothing from the previous two games that suggests the Maple Leafs have what it takes to win three in a row against the Bruins.
Still, if Toronto can find a way to secure an upset win tonight in Boston, their outlook could potentially be very different heading into Game 6 on home ice.
For now, all that matters is a must-win Game 5.
I wouldn’t bet on the Maple Leafs to win the series.
At the same time, this team has everything to gain by defying the odds with a win tonight in Boston.
I’m excited to see how every single player on Toronto’s roster responds with the season on the line tonight.
The one thing that we can all agree on is that regardless of what happens next, Leafs Nation will be talking about it for a very long time.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024.
Morning Coffee: Maple Leafs, Bruins Game 5 Odds
The Bruins own a 21-3 series record all-time when leading 3-1 in a best-of-seven.
However, Boston has lost four straight playoff games with an opportunity to clinch a series – tied for its longest such streak over the past decade.
The Bruins lost three in a row when leading the Florida Panthers 3-1 in the first round of last year’s playoffs.
Considering how quickly things went south versus Florida last year, and the fact that the Panthers already punched their ticket to the second round with a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning last night, there will be some pressure on Boston to end the series tonight.
On the flip side, Toronto owns a 1-16 series record when trailing 3-1 in a best-of-seven.
The Maple Leafs are 0-11 down 3-1 in a series that began on the road.
At the same time, Toronto has won three straight Game 5s on the road when entering the game with a 3-1 series deficit.
If they can find a way to pull off the upset win tonight, the Maple Leafs will return home with a chance to force a winner-take-all in front of their fans on Thursday night.
That’s all that Leafs Nation could ask for at this point.
Toronto is currently +136 on the moneyline at FanDuel.
That number represents the longest odds that either team has had to win a game so far in this series.
Boston is -164 to win Game 4 and -1250 to advance.
A year ago at this time, the Bruins led the Panthers 3-1 in the first round and were -3500 to advance.
At the time, Boston was also the Stanley Cup favourite at +240.
I understand that the current situation is much different, but if you’re looking for even a sliver of hope as a Leafs fan, then you’ll probably appreciate that stranger things have happened.
In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’m going to stick with what’s worked for me so far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and lock in another Same Game Parlay+ built with shots on goal props.
For Toronto, Tyler Bertuzzi has registered two or more shots on goal in each of the first four games of the series.
He’s averaged 4.0 shots on goal in the previous three.
I’m going to take Bertuzzi 2+ shots on goal as the first leg of the parlay and then look to the late game between the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets for the next leg.
The Jets are -105 to win Game 5 tonight on home ice and avoid elimination.
Winnipeg has struggled to slow down Colorado’s offence, allowing five or more goals in each of the first four games of the series.
While Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar have all made their marks through four games, it’s been Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen that have led the Avalanche with six and four goals, respectively.
Both Nichushkin and Lehkonen have registered three or more shots on goal in each of the first four games of the series.
They’ve also both scored in all four games.
I don’t love the juice, but my priority is to lock in a winner here, and it’s still a better price than I would get betting the favourite in two of the four NHL games tonight.
Anybody looking for a better number could add Nichushkin 2+ shots on goal to the SGP+ and get +103 odds.
Personally, I’ll be playing several different combinations for tonight’s games, including all the above to record 3+ shots on goal at +468.
The FanDuel Best Bet is Bertuzzi 2+ shots on goal and Lehkonen 2+ shots on goal at -149.
A FanDuel Best Bet For The CFL Draft
With a full slate of games for the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the NBA Playoffs, it would be easy to overlook the fact that FanDuel has markets up for tonight’s CFL Draft on TSN.
For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’m going chalk and taking Joel Dublanko to be the No. 1 overall pick.
Dublanko is currently -180 to go first overall at FanDuel.
That might be the best price you can find.
Shopping around at some other sportsbooks this morning, I’m seeing Dublanko to go No. 1 at both -250 and -300 odds.
Based on those prices alone, I’m willing to roll the dice on Dublanko to go first overall at -180 at FanDuel.
Nick Mardner is currently the second choice to go first overall at +400.
Kevin Mital is the third choice at +1300.
Hopefully, if there’s any change in sentiment at the top, we’ll see it before the draft begins tonight at 8 PM ET and have a chance to hedge this bet.
Make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X for the latest.
Dublanko to go No. 1 at -180 is my FanDuel Best Bet for the CFL Draft.