Game 5 of the Battle of Ontario goes Tuesday night as the Toronto Maple Leafs look to put an end to the series.

Leading 3-1, the Leafs are favourites on FanDuel to advance to the second round and are -162 to win Game 5 and -1600 to win the series, implying a 94.12 per cent probability.

Over the last two decades, the Maple Leafs are 1-13 in potential series-clinching playoff games, with their only win coming on the road in Game 6 of the first round in 2023.

Matthews on key to close-out game: 'We want to be a desperate team'

Any athlete will tell you the series-clinching game is always the hardest one to get but despite the Sens coming in as the team with their backs against the wall, Leafs captain Auston Matthews insists his team needs to be the desperate one. Thomas Chabot admitted there is some pressure and it will take Ottawa's best to get the win.

The Senators survived elimination on Saturday with a 4-3 overtime win on home ice. They look to become just the fifth team in league history to overcome a 3-0 series deficit to win.

The most recent NHL team to overcome a 3-0 series deficit was the 2014 Los Angeles Kings, who won four straight games to beat the San Jose Sharks in the first round.

Outside of the four teams to overcome a 3-0 deficit to win, only six other NHL teams have forced a Game 7 after being down 3-0.

Ottawa is +860 to advance to the second round, and the series is +300 to reach Game 7.

'It's not easy': Green feels Senators have done 'OK' job against Matthews line

Auston Matthews has been held to a single goal through four games in the Maple Leafs' series against the Senators and Travis Green assessed the job his team has done against the Matthews line.

Before we get to a best bet from Domenic Padula, TSN’s senior sports betting analyst, let’s take a look at a market that had us on the edge of our seats Saturday night.

More overtime?

For the third straight game, 60 minutes wasn’t enough Saturday night between the Leafs and Senators as Game 4 was decided in overtime.

If you read this column on Saturday, then you were in for a sweat as we talked about Claude Giroux and his 100-1 price pre-game to score the overtime winner.

Giroux fired the first shot of the extra frame but wasn’t the one to pot the winner after Jake Sanderson ended things, continuing our search for a winner in this market.

Tonight, we’ll turn our attention to former Leafs captain John Tavares.

It was on this date in 2023 that Tavares scored the overtime winner in Game 6 against the Tampa Bay Lightning to give Toronto its first playoff series win in 19 years.

Tonight, he will try to lead Toronto to its first playoff series win on home ice since that same 2004 opening-round series against Ottawa.

The 34-year-old is -174 to record a point, +190 to score, and is +4600 in the Game to Reach Overtime & OT Goal Scorer market.

Meanwhile, after scoring the overtime winner on Saturday, Sanderson is 160-1 to do it again in Game 5.

Game to Reach Overtime & OT Goal Scorer

Name Odds
Auston Matthews +3700
William Nylander +4600
John Tavares +4600
Brady Tkachuk +5000
Mitch Marner +5500
Drake Batherson  +5500
Tim Stutzle +6500
Matthew Knies +7000
Dylan Cozens +8000
Bobby Mcmann +9000
Shane Pinto  +10000

DOM’S BATTLE OF ONTARIO GAME 5 BEST BET

Leafs Nation has waited a long time for this moment.

It's been two years since Toronto clinched a playoff series win over the Lightning on this exact date back in 2023.

The Maple Leafs won't want to make their fans wait any longer to end this series.

While Toronto has been the better team through four games, three of them have gone to overtime.

The Leafs have struggled in closeout games over the past decade, and another loss tonight on home ice might be enough to allow the seeds of doubt to creep into the Maple Leafs locker room and give the Senators the confidence boost they need to claw their way back into this series.

The FanDuel traders told us that 89 per cent of the handle is on Toronto to win, and I'm not surprised one bit. This is it. Don't get scared now.

Give me the Maple Leafs to win and advance tonight.

What could possibly go wrong?