Setting The Pick – Wemby no!

Victor Wembanyama’s season-ending injury news is devastating to so many stakeholders.

First and foremost, Wemby himself.

He was diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis, which is a blood clot that forms in a deep vein. This condition has been life-threatening in past cases due to its ability to spread through the bloodstream and attach to the lungs.

This is the same condition that cut Chris Bosh’s career short at age 32.

Newly acquired Raptor, Brandon Ingram, was also diagnosed with this condition when he was 21 years old and required season-ending surgery on his arm.

There was no heads-up on the injury news until it broke.

This is the type of medical issue that rises above the sport.

For the NBA, there’s no denying the loss of their next generational star is a blow. 

From a betting lens, Wemby’s sudden absence caused a massive ripple effect in the futures markets – none bigger than Defensive Player of the Year.

Prior to the news, the Frenchman was -2400 to win the award on FanDuel, an implied probability of 96 per cent.

Just like that, all those tickets have been eviscerated as he won’t meet the 65-game minimum.

Season-ending injuries are much less common than you’d expect. This one truly came out of the blue with zero time to react.

But given the news, FanDuel’s traders must’ve been scrambling to reprice all the correlated markets.

My thoughts on them below.

Defensive Player of the Year

The DPOY pricing in the hour after Wemby’s news mirrored the stock market.

Arrows were going up and down, new players were being made available to bet on – it was chaos.

But as it stands, two clear front-runners are separated from the pack.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is +125 and Evan Mobley is +130 which is a combined 88 per cent implied probability.

I’m not sure it’s that locked up.

Wemby being such a heavy favourite had more to do with his presence and eye-test than past precedent.

While he’s a full block ahead of the next closest qualifier, the stats that typically matter for this award didn’t apply to his case.

His team doesn’t own homecourt advantage for the playoffs and the Spurs aren’t a Top 5 defence (in fact, not even close at 19^th).

Run through the list of past winners and you’ll notice, DPOY is a team-based award.

Wemby was set to be the exception.

Now that he’s out of the running, expect the voting criteria to revert back.

While Mobley and Jackson Jr. both play for Top 3 teams in their conferences, their defences are ranked seventh and eighth respectively.

If either were to win, they’d be the first in 20 years to play for a defence outside the Top 5.

The problem with every other top defence in the NBA currently – they don’t have a clear-cut candidate.

OKC is the best defence by a longshot but it’s not clear who deserves the lion’s share of the credit. Their vote could be split amongst Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams.

The Clippers have the second-best defence currently, but does Ivica Zubac profile as the league’s top rim-protector like Rudy Gobert has?

Orlando has earned their reputation as the toughest up-and-coming defence, but their best defender, Jalen Suggs, is no longer eligible due to games missed.

This final stretch of games will have an impact on this award.

If you gave me a choice between Mobley and JJJ versus the field, I’d take the field especially at the prices players can be found at on FanDuel.

Rookie of the Year

As a byproduct of the announcement, Stephon Castle (-175) saw his odds for ROTY jump into minus territory for the first time all season.

This award has seen nine different favourites listed atop FanDuel’s app, but I firmly believe a true runaway candidate has emerged.

In the six games since De’Aaron Fox was dealt to San Antonio, Castle has held his own as their de facto sixth man.

He’s averaged 17.5 points and 1.7 steals, both first amongst rookies.

Of the 10 players averaging more minutes than him in this stretch, Kel’el Ware is the only player on a team competing for the playoffs.

Castle’s case is anchored on his two-way play and the impact he’s having on winning.

From this point on, he might not be the scoring leader amongst rookies, but he won’t need to be.

He has a clearly defined role as the third ball-handler behind Fox and Chris Paul.

With their season in flux, I imagine Paul taking more days off opening the door for Castle to get meaningful reps.

If they find themselves knocking on the door of the play-in come April, he should be heavily favoured to hoist the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy.

Clutch Player of the Year

A less subtle way this news could cause a ripple is Fox winning Clutch Player of the Year.

The inaugural winner of the Jerry West Trophy has the pedigree as one of the best closers in the NBA.

He was first in total clutch points the year he won and fifth last season.

As it stands, he’s seventh in clutch scoring but might find himself in significantly more opportunities with Wemby sidelined.

The big man was unsurprisingly San Antonio’s leading scorer in clutch time, tallying 50 points over 74.5 minutes played.

He leaves behind a gaping hole which I expect Fox to fill.

I also think Fox will have more looks

based on their recent six game sample.

Paul was previously their second-leading clutch time scorer at 40 points, but since Fox’s arrival, CP3 has only taken two field-goal attempts.

Fox has taken seven while also dishing out five dimes.

Now that the offence won’t be force-feeding Wemby, the former King has a chance to pad his stats.

This award is ultimately cumulative in nature; 66 per cent of Spurs games have ended in clutch time situations thus far.

Fox at +2500 likely shortens as they push to sneak into the play-in.