Setting The Pick – NBA Awards quarterly review

It’s never too early to get ahead of award season if you have a strong lean towards a deserving candidate.

We’re approaching the quarter mark of the NBA season and have more than a month’s worth of game tape to work with.

Like all fiscally responsible corporations, doing quarterly reviews is a great way to evaluate where some of these awards are headed.  

Let’s look back on who’s performed the best thus far and map out future projections for players in three award races.

Front-runner - Nikola Jokic, +180 to win MVP

Last year at this time, I claimed Jokic wouldn’t win his third MVP trophy over so many other deserving candidates.

It feels like déjà vu as we hit this reflection point in the season.  

The Joker is the front-runner yet again on FanDuel and he’s knocking on all-time great territory.

Should Jokic take home the Michael Jordan Trophy this season, he’ll achieve a feat even the Bulls legend himself never accomplished – win four MVPs in five seasons.  

Bill Russell and LeBron James are the only others to ever do it.

The big man is somehow averaging career highs in points, assists, and three-point percentage as he single-handedly keeps Denver in the playoff mix.  

I truly believe the award voters keep the MVP trophy incredibly sacred and would need overwhelming evidence to extend Jokic an accolade Jordan never achieved.

At this point, his individual performance warrants it.

Team-wise, Denver currently sits in a play-in spot and that won’t cut it. I think Jokic needs a Top-4 seed at minimum to make this happen.

Alternative – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, +350 to win MVP

I continue to believe MVP is SGA’s to lose.

Often times, this award has narrative interwoven more than it should.

If the voters had a choice, I think they’d prefer to spread the love.

Well, few franchises get more praise than the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Beginning with 22 wins post-Paul George trade, this franchise has steadily rebuilt to the current Western Conference favourites that they are.  

Gilgeous-Alexander has been the head of the snake, finishing runner-up for MVP last year as they won 57 games.

Before Chet Holmgren’s injury this year, I believed SGA’s path to MVP was being the best player on the best team.

Now that Holmgren is projected to miss roughly half the season, OKC is unlikely to own the league’s top record.

For SGA to get back into the MVP lead, he’ll need to take a significant individual leap – getting above 31.4 ppg (his career high).

OKC is still projected to finish well above the next closest team in the West. FanDuel has them projected for 57.5 wins with Golden State and Dallas both at 50.5.

First in the West might be enough, but a career scoring year from SGA or finishing as the league leader will help cement his case over Jokic.

Front-runner - Jared McCain, -170 to win ROTY

McCain fits the profile of your traditional ROTY winner – gifted scorer who gets enough volume regardless of team success.

His season took off 10 games ago when Tyrese Maxey went down with a hamstring injury, and he’s gone on to average 23.4 ppg.

His production is undeniable. If he continued at that pace, he’d be a unanimous winner this year.

Unfortunately, Philly’s Big 3 are expected to share the court eventually.

For all the turmoil the Sixers are enduring, Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Maxey have shared the court for six total minutes over 17 games.  

McCain gets the award for quarter-mark ROTY, but over the final 75 percent of the season, rational heads would suggest Philly’s stars will return.

Don’t buy McCain at his peak. Minus-money this early should be avoided.  

Alternative – Stephon Castle, +1000 to win ROTY

If you want a player with a secure role and pedigree, Castle is displaying promise as a ROTY candidate.

Like McCain, the fourth-overall pick has benefitted from injury luck but I’m confident his minutes will continue in the high 20s at worst.

He was thrusted into the starting five after Jeremy Sochan fractured his thumb and capitalized on the opportunity over the past 12 games.

He’s averaged 14.7 points, 2.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists during this period and more importantly helped the Spurs to a 7-5 record.

The knock on Castle coming out of Connecticut was his inability to shoot the three, but he’s held his own, going 33.3 per cent in these games.  

What he was known for was his impact as a two-way player, and, paired with Victor Wembanyama, these two have been menacing defensively.  

They also have one of the catchiest tandem nicknames in the league.

If the Spurs stumble into the play-in tournament, Castle will be given credit for their improvement.  

He’ll get a bump for impacting winning and not rely solely on his statistical production.

Front-runner - Payton Pritchard, -115 for 6MOY

Pritchard has cemented his case as the leader for Sixth Man of the Year at the quarter-mark of the season.

He’s second in bench scoring only behind Jordan Clarkson and leads all bench players with 3.5 three-pointers made per game.

Boston has a 15-3 record over this period, and they’d likely have more losses if it weren’t for Pritchard.

My concern with his case has to do with the return of Kristaps Porzingis.

With him back into the rotation, one of the current starters has to move to the bench.

I’d argue any of those five players will play a more important role that Pritchard moving forward. So how can he win this league award if he isn’t even the best bench player on his own team?

In addition to his diminishing role, he’s also come back down to earth over the past two weeks.

He’s down to 11.2 ppg which puts him outside the Top-25 in bench scoring.

At a better price I’d consider him, but not at minus-money.

Alternative – Amen Thompson, +2000 for 6MOY

This is a player I think you need exposure on before his price drops.  

Thompson is an electric two-way player who is the personification of all that Houston does well.

This squad currently sits one game out of the No. 1 seed after failing to qualify for the play-in tournament last season.  

They’ve taken a meteoric leap and Thompson’s steady play off the bench has been a key factor.

The Rockets own the fourth-best net rating in the NBA and get winning minutes from both their starting and bench units.  

Thompson is a plus-4.1 on the season and had multiple games with six or more combined steals and blocks.  

More importantly, he’s being trusted by head coach Ime Udoka to close games, giving him a different look depending on the matchups.

While Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green’s roles are secured, Thompson is their most capable defensive guard when they’re in need of a stop.

On the other side, he’s upped his shooting percentage to 57.6 this season – a career high – and is seeing his minutes creep closer to 30 a night.  

Funnily enough, I think his teammate, Tari Eason, is also a suitable candidate for this award.

Just like the San Antonio blurb above, it helps that this tandem also has a sweet nickname and brand.  

Of the two, I think Thompson is more likely to win given his profile as a fourth-overall pick.

Eason has great per-minute production but with Thompson averaging four more mpg and closing games more frequently, I’d gives him the edge