Sep 21, 2024
Pick and Roll: Playoff preview, first-round matchups and championship picks
The 2024 WNBA postseason has arrived, which means it's time for our playoff edition of Pick and Roll presented by FanDuel.
The 2024 WNBA postseason has arrived, which means Brianne Spiker and I are back to another edition of Pick and Roll presented by FanDuel.
If you’ve been sleeping under a rock all summer and are just tuning into the WNBA, first of all, welcome. Second, you’ve missed a lot.
Spiker and I have been monitoring key storylines all season while also trying to find a few winners along the way.
Who can forget the all-star game when Brianne pointed to the sky and called her shot with the WNBA All-Stars to beat Team USA as +205 underdogs?
With the regular season wrapping up let’s recap a few futures given out in the column.
I went 1-1, cashing on the Los Angeles Sparks team total going under 9.5 wins (7-32) and losing the Chicago Sky team total, over which we tipped at 15.5 (13-26).
As for futures, I currently have two championship wagers pending: Seattle at 12-1 and Indiana at 40-1.
Join Brianne and I this week as we preview the four opening-round playoff series and stick around at the end to find out which series Spiker thinks this year's WNBA Champion could emerge from.
WNBA: Playoff Series Betting Odds
No. 1 New York Liberty vs. No. 8 Atlanta Dream
| WNBA: Playoff Series Betting Odds | New York | Atlanta |
|---|---|---|
| Series Odds | -2500 | +1200 |
| G1/Series Double | -800 | +1900 |
| Series Sweep | -390 | +4200 |
| Championship Odds | +125 | +24000 |
| Season Series | 3 | 1 |
After falling short in the 2023 Final, the New York Liberty tip off their 2024 postseason as the favourites to win the team’s first WNBA Championship.
New York won the first three meetings between these two teams, winning both games in Atlanta by more than 15 points.
The Liberty swept the Washington Mystics last year in the opening round on their way to an appearance in the final for the first time since 2002.
The Dream are looking for their first playoff win since 2018, despite making the playoffs last year.
Spiker’s Take: Liberty in two (-390)
No.2 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 7 Phoenix Mercury
No.2 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 7 Phoenix Mercury
| WNBA: Playoff Series Betting Odds | Minnesota | Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Series Odds | -900 | +610 |
| G1/Series Double | -460 | +1000 |
| Series Sweep | -260 | +2400 |
| Championship Odds | +350 | +12000 |
| Season Series | 3 | 1 |
The two-seed Minnesota Lynx are heavy favourites to take down Diana Taurasi and her Phoenix Mercury in the opening round.
After splitting their opening games of the season, Minnesota won the final two meetings between the teams by a combined 26 points, winning both games by 13.
Both teams are searching for their first playoff series win since 2021.
Spiker’s Take: Lynx in three (+370)
No. 3 Connecticut Sun vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever
No. 3 Connecticut Sun vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever
| WNBA: Playoff Series Betting Odds | Connecticut | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Series Odds | -196 | +164 |
| G1/Series Double | -460 | +1000 |
| Series Sweep | +120 | +600 |
| Championship Odds | +800 | +2400 |
| Season Series | 3 | 1 |
The Connecticut Sun have been the definition of consistent in terms of contending in the WNBA Playoffs.
This marks the eighth straight season the Sun have made the playoffs, the longest active streak in the league and tied for sixth best in WNBA history.
Since 2017, they have won at least one playoff series every year, made the semi-finals five times, and have two finals appearances.
However, they remain the only team in WNBA history to make eight straight postseason appearances without winning a championship.
Standing between the Sun and another chance to make history is the Indiana Fever.
After having the No. 1 pick in the last two drafts, the Fever are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
The Fever opened the season 1-8 in May but completely turned it around shortly after that. They were one of the best teams in the league for a few weeks after the Olympic break going 5-1 in August.
The duo of Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark became a three-headed monster after the All-Star break when Kelsey Mitchell went from averaging 16.9 points per game to 23.4 per night over the team's final 14 contests.
Spiker’s Take: Sun in three (+290)
No. 4 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 5 Seattle Storm
No. 4 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 5 Seattle Storm
| WNBA: Playoff Series Betting Odds | Vegas | Seattle |
|---|---|---|
| Series Odds | -460 | +360 |
| G1/Series Double | -270 | +550 |
| Series Sweep | -165 | +1300 |
| Championship Odds | +250 | +3700 |
| Season Series | 3 | 1 |
A’ja Wilson and the Aces are back looking for their third straight WNBA Championship.
Wilson, a soon-to-be three-time MVP, just had one of the best seasons in WNBA history averaging 26.9 points per game and becoming the first player to score 1,000 points in a season.
The Aces are in the playoffs for the sixth straight year, however, they enter with their lowest seeding since they were the No.4 seed in 2019.
Seattle is back in the postseason after missing last year for the first time since 2016.
Under head coach Noelle Quinn, they made the playoffs in 2022 as the four seed, winning one round before losing to the Aces in the second round. Now, they get a chance to even the score.
Spiker’s Take: Aces in Three (+290)
Now that the opening-round previews are behind us, here are two teams Brianne thinks can make a deep run in the playoffs, if they can get out of the first round.
Favourite: Lynx +350
The Minnesota Lynx have not won a WNBA title since 2017 but are primed to make a serious run for another this season.
After missing the playoffs in 2022 and then bowing out in the first round to the Connecticut Sun last season, the Lynx have roared back this season, going 30-10.
Minnesota tinkered with their roster in the off-season, bringing in a pair of guards in Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman. Williams was third on the Lynx in scoring, averaging 11.1 points, 5.5 assists and 4.7 rebounds this season.
The biggest piece to the Lynx's success has been the continued evolution of Napheesa Collier, who would’ve been a legitimate contender for MVP if not for A’ja Wilson’s otherworldly season in Las Vegas.
Collier, who missed most of the 2022 season after giving birth, is averaging 20.4 points per game, the second-highest mark of her career, and is netting career highs in rebounds (9.7) and assists (3.4).
Canadian Bridget Carleton is also in the midst of a career season. After establishing herself as a useful role player for the Lynx since her arrival in 2019, Carleton has started 35 of 38 games this season, averaging career highs in points (9.6) and rebounds (3.8) to go along with 2.2 assists. Her field goal (44.4) and three-point (44.4) shooting percentages are her best marks since the 2020 season.
The Lynx are well-coached with a balanced roster and have been a problem for teams all season long. This is a team with a legitimate chance to be in the finals in October.
Underdog: Mercury 120-1
As the seventh seed, the star-studded Phoenix Mercury are an underdog heading into the playoffs.
It feels like the Mercury underachieved a little in the regular season, ending the season at .500. However, they also have the ability to dominate games and could feasibly make a long playoff run.
The Mercury had a big off-season, making significant moves such as acquiring 2021 WNBA Finals MVP Kahleah Copper from the Chicago Sky and signing guard Natasha Cloud in free agency.
Both players responded to the change with career seasons. Copper is averaging a career-high 21.1 points while Cloud had her second-best assist rate with 6.9 per game with a career-high 4.1 rebounds.
Brittney Griner remains a pillar for Phoenix, averaging 17.8 points and 6.6 assists while legend Diana Taurasi continues to produce at 42-years-old, netting 14.9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists this season.
In looking at all the talent on the team, it doesn’t seem quite right the Mercury are where they are. But if this team can pull it all together at the right time, this is a team worth taking seriously.