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As winning and losing streaks extend in both directions, several NBA teams are on the clock to start buying or selling.

Washington owns the league’s worst losing streak at 10 games while Toronto and Chicago aren’t far behind at six and four, respectively.

At the top of the Eastern Conference, teams three through six all own winning streaks of four games or more, potentially encouraging them to trade for additional pieces.

December 15th was a critical date in the NBA as more than 70 players who signed contracts during the off-season are now eligible to be traded.

The NBA trade deadline of February 9th isn’t far away.

As much as this season has been about parity, the good teams will start separating themselves from the pack.

For the bottom feeders, now’s the time to capitalize on their assets and sell-high in hopes of winning the lottery for ‘once in a generation’ prospect Victor Wembanyama.

LEAGUE-WIDE NOTES

Could It Be Magic?

Remember when Toronto lost back-to-back away games in Orlando and it felt like the world was ending?

Well, give the Magic some credit because they proceeded to pull the same stunt a week later against the league’s best team at the time, the Boston Celtics.

If it weren’t for a buzzer-beating loss against Atlanta Monday night, Orlando would be riding a seven-game win streak.

To put into perspective how unexpected this run has been, if you bet $10 on the Magic for all seven games since their win over the Clippers (including the Hawks loss), you’d be up $185.

They won more games during this two-week stretch than they have the entire 2022-23 season.

Where did this turnaround come from?

For starters, improved health has been a factor. Over two games in late November, the Magic played without a point guard. During this win streak, they’ve gotten Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz back from injury. Jalen Suggs is also on his way back soon.

Having these guys back will alleviate the pressure on their bigs to keep up with opposing guards.

Another factor for them has been the possession battle.

Taking a page out of Toronto’s playbook, they’ve zeroed in on limiting turnovers and crashing the glass.

They were 19th in offensive rebounding rate over the first 25 games. They’ve been ninth over the past seven games.

They were third-worst in turnovers before the win streak. They’ve improved to 16th since.

As a young team, they might have hot and cold nights with their offence, but the combination of the two changes mentioned above should be cause for optimism.

They’ve been the second-best team against the spread over the last two weeks.

The play: Orlando ATS or ML if you’re feeling spicy

Toronto Defensive Gaps

Last week I cautioned betting on the Raptors citing concerns about their stagnate offence and lack of three-point shooting.

Since then, they lost four straight.

It’s no coincidence that O.G. Anunoby’s absence left a gaping hole in Toronto’s defence. He’s Top-3 in Defensive Player of the Year pricing on FanDuel for a reason.

With Anunoby out of the lineup all four games last week, their defensive rating dropped to 23rd in the league (Toronto is 12th on the season).

If fading the Raptors directly doesn’t sit well in your stomach, an alternative way to capitalize on their recent form is to cherry-pick specific defensive lapses.

The first has to do with three-point shooting – specifically corner threes.

Toronto ranks dead last in corner threes allowed, according to Cleaning The Glass. 

On average, NBA teams roughly allow nine corner threes a game. Toronto is near 13 a game.

The Sixers got up 20 last night. In the three games prior they allowed 10, 11, and 18.

Corner threes are one of the most coveted shots in the modern NBA game, but the Raptors continuously offer them up to opponents.

Make them pay.

Another fade opportunity is to bet on opposing guards who have a first-step advantage on Toronto’s defenders.

The track-record speaks for itself, but capable scorers have carved up the Raptors.

Jordan Poole – 43 points, 5 threes, 6 assists, 14-of-23 from the field
Kyrie Irving – 32 points, 3 threes, 5 assists, 13-of-22 from the field
De’Aaron Fox – 27 points, 4 threes, 10 assists, 9-of-23 from the field
Kyrie Irving – 27 points, 2 threes, 5 assists, 10-of-17 from the field
Darius Garland – 18 points, 2 threes, 10 assists, 6-of-11 from the field

I’m not suggesting taking the over on all opposing point guards, but those who share a similar profile to the players above seem to be hurting the Raps.

Toronto has the length, but they lack the speed.

The play: Toronto opponents who take corner threes and opposing speed-based playmakers

PLAYER PROPS

Joel Embiid To The Line

The Process hasn’t made much noise in the MVP conversation coming off two back-to-back runner-up finishes.

The Sixers opened the season 1-4 and Embiid has already missed eight games.

But as he did last season, with the calendar about to flip, he’s beginning to heat up.

In the nine games since returning from injury, he’s averaging 34.1 points per game and shooting 54 per cent from the field, 55 per cent from three, and 87.9 per cent from the line.

Philly is currently on a five-game win streak and due for another boost with Tyrese Maxey nearing a return.

Embiid has gone over 30 points in seven of his last nine games and free-throws have been a huge factor.

On the season he’s taking 12 free-throw attempts per game, second only to Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The difference between the two? Embiid actually hits his.

His combination of size and agility makes him near impossible to defend in isolation and his propensity for drawing fouls is growing.

It should come as no surprise that in his five highest free-throw games, he went over his points props.

The play: Embiid over points against opponents in the bottom-half of free-throw rate

Devin Booker Fatigue

In Chris Paul’s absence over 14 games this season, Booker carried the Suns to a 9-5 record averaging 29.0 ppg.

Perhaps the burden of that workload has caught up to him.

Since CP3’s return, Booker has missed time with two separate injuries – left hamstring tightness and right groin soreness.

In the four games played, he exploded for 58 points in one game while scoring 14, 14, and 17 in the other three. He’s shooting 41.8 per cent from the field and 70.8 from the line.

He’s still listed as questionable for Tuesday night’s game but even if he returns, there will likely be an adjustment period.

His point prop got as high as 29.5 during this 14-game stretch.

In the other 14 games played with CP3 active, Booker only averaged 26.7 ppg.

Booker is a high-profile MVP-calibre player, but this stretch could be a good opportunity for unders.

The play: Booker under point props if in the high 20s

FUTURES

A Three-Peat Can’t Happen Right?

Slowly but surely, Nikola Jokic keeps jamming himself into the MVP conversation regardless of how much voter fatigue there might be.

For the last month and a half, The Joker’s price for MVP on FanDuel sat anywhere between +2100 to +3600.

As of today, he’s the fourth choice at +1000.

The last player to win MVP three consecutive seasons was Larry Bird in 1986. Michael Jordan and LeBron James were both not able to complete the feat.

If Jokic were to complete the impossible, what would the criteria have to be?

This is my own guess:

- Denver to finish with the best record in the NBA
- Jokic to average a triple-double
- Jokic to finish with more points per game than 2021-22

The crazy thing is, he’s not far off those milestones.

Denver is one game out of first in the West, he’s averaging one field-goal less per game and he’s one assist short.

If he can finish the season healthy with those achievements, expect the narrative on his case to change.

Next ‘Sixth’ Man Up

Sitting atop the Sixth Man of the Year list on FanDuel, Russell Westbrook (+150) and Jordan Poole (+400) both have short-term opportunities to pump up their stats.

For the Lakers, Anthony Davis is due to miss multiple weeks. Even though Westbrook likely continues coming off the bench, his usage rate and minutes could rise.

For the Warriors, losing Steph Curry leaves a massive void Poole won’t be able to fill. That being said, the former G-League standout has demonstrated an ability to level up when injected into the starting five.

Here’s how his stats compare:

19 games off the bench – 14.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 4.6 apg, 40.9 FG%, 79.2 FT%
12 games as a starter – 26.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 46.4 FG%, 91.7 FT%

There’s no denying he excels with the starters versus the bench unit. Look no further than his 43-point performance against the Raps.

The only risk for Poole? If Curry’s injury ends up being multiple months.

To qualify for the award, a player needs to come off the bench more times than he starts.

Lamar Odom is the tightest example, winning 6MOY while playing 35 of 82 games as a starter.

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