Oilers continue to roll in latest NHL Power Ranking

As we inch closer to the break in NHL action in February for the 4 Nations Face-Off, the playoff picture in both the Eastern and Western Conferences is starting to take shape.

Before we get into our rankings, a little clarity on the objective of our list. It is not to show where teams sit in the standings – that’s what the standings are for. Our model aims to forecast whether teams are trending up or down and where we expect them to be in a few weeks. Goal differential, expected goal differential, and recent play provide insight into how teams are playing and what we can expect from them in the short term.

With that said, the Edmonton Oilers are still the team to beat in the Western Conference, ranking second on our list. The Oilers won two of their three games last week and have the best expected goal differential of any team in the NHL.

When you think of Edmonton, you likely think of offence – the Oilers lead the league in expected goals, offensive zone puck possession, rush chances and high-danger chances. That said, the Oilers have quietly been a top defensive team this season as well. Edmonton sits second in expected goals against and inner slot shots against while ranking seventh in goals-against average.

While the process has been slightly better than the results for the Oilers, the opposite is true of the Winnipeg Jets who also sit in the top five of our Power Rankings.

Winnipeg is second in goals for and against while ranking 20th in expected goals and 11th in expected goals against. The Jets have won four of their past five games and continue to torch teams with their league-best power play. It converted twice in their win against the Calgary Flames Sunday and is clicking at 33.3 per cent – nearly five percentage points better than any other team. There’s still a lot of season left but no team in NHL history has ever finished with a power play over 33 per cent.

The Ottawa Senators are down two spots from 9th to 11th after an up-and-down week. Ottawa was shutout in back-to-back games against the Rangers and Bruins before winning a pair of games on the weekend against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Utah.

Our model continues to believe the Senators are closer to the best version of themselves than the team that has struggled mightily to generate offence recently. Time will tell, however. Ottawa sits third in the Atlantic Division, six points back of the Maple Leafs for top spot after trailing by eight points while occupying a wild-card spot one week ago.

As for the Leafs, back-to-back losses have seen their lead atop the division shrink to one point though they did move up one spot on our list. Mitch Marner continues to team up the scoresheet with eight points in his past five games while sitting fourth in scoring this season.

The main reason our model doesn’t rank the Maple Leafs as high as where they sit in points percentage (eighth overall) is due to process-related stats, which are closer to average than elite. Toronto sits 14th in expected goals and 22nd in expected goals against. Toronto has a record of 7-5-0 since the calendar flipped to 2025.

The Calgary Flames remain 19th on our list after a 2-1-0 week. The terrific play of rookie goalie Dustin Wolf is the biggest reason the Flames are holding onto the final playoff spot in the West. Wolf ranks sixth in save percentage and has a record of 18-7-2. Backup Dan Vladar has posted a 6-10-5 record this season.

A 1-1-1 week has the Montreal Canadiens down six spots from 20th to 26th. The Canadiens have allowed 21 goals in their past five games as some cracks have started to show in their defensive game. Montreal has seen an increase of 26 per cent in goals against in its past five compared to its season average, 35 per cent in inner slot shots and 23 per cent in rush chances against.

Life won’t get any easier for the Habs with a pair of home games coming up against the Jets and Wild.

Lastly, the Vancouver Canucks are down one spot from 26th to 27th. The Canucks, who are set to start a three-game road trip Monday in St. Louis, dropped two of three games last week.

Aside from the off-ice drama that continues to follow the team, Vancouver’s lack of offence is one of the biggest talking points. Since the start of January, no team is averaging fewer goals per game - 1.83 - than the Canucks. Vancouver is just three points back of the final wild-card spot in the West but our model doesn’t like their chances to make the playoffs this season.