Morning Coffee: Can the Oilers defy the odds one more time?
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The Edmonton Oilers have defied the odds all season to make it this far.
After falling behind 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final, they’ll attempt the unprecedented on the game’s biggest stage.
The Oilers are the 29th team in NHL history to trail 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final.
Sure, the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied from down 3-0 to win the Stanley Cup in seven against the Detroit Red Wings, but that was all the way back in 1942.
Of the previous 28 teams to lose three straight games to start the Stanley Cup Final, only the 1942 Maple Leafs went on to win it all.
No team in the modern era has accomplished that feat.
While the odds are stacked against Edmonton, FanDuel’s adjusted series prices might not be what you’d expect.
Facing elimination for the third time this postseason, the Oilers responded with their best effort of the playoffs in an 8-1 win over the Florida Panthers on Saturday night.
Edmonton’s plus-seven goal margin matched the largest margin of victory ever when facing elimination in a Stanley Cup Final – a record set by the Vancouver Millionaires all the way back in 1918.
With the win, FanDuel cut the Oilers’ odds to win the Stanley Cup from +1000 to +720.
That current price suggests Edmonton has a 12.2 per cent chance to win it all.
Not a bad number at all for Oilers Nation when you consider the historical precedent for teams down 3-0.
Next up, the Oilers will attempt to send the series back to Edmonton as a +114 underdog on Tuesday night.
The Panthers are -1200 to win the Stanley Cup and -145 to clinch it on home ice in Game 5.
Per the FanDuel traders, the early money on Game 5 has been lopsided to this point with most of the bets on Florida to hoist the Stanley Cup in front of their home fans on Tuesday night.
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, June 17th, 2024.
Can The Oilers Defy The Odds One More Time?
Florida to win Game 5 could be found as low as -126 and as high as -146 at FanDuel over the past 48 hours.
The Panthers are currently -134 to win on Tuesday night.
The Oilers are coming off their most impressive performance of the playoffs so far to improve to 3-0 in elimination games this postseason.
However, despite the lopsided result, the early action for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final is slanted heavily towards Florida to win.
Per the FanDuel traders, a whopping 88 per cent of the early money for Game 5 is on the Panthers to win.
Florida had won a franchise-record six straight games prior to a Game 4 loss in Edmonton.
Apparently, bettors aren’t ready to write them off just yet after one loss, regardless of how ugly it was.
It will be interesting to see if that sentiment changes if the Oilers could defy the odds one more time on Tuesday night.
While the Panthers are a popular pick to win Game 5 and to win the Stanley Cup, it’s notable that a strong performance from either Sergei Bobrovsky or Aleksander Barkov in Game 5 could determine the Conn Smythe Trophy winner.
Bobrovsky, who was -420 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy through the first three games of the series, is closer to even-money at -115 to win that award after he was pulled in the Game 4 loss.
Barkov’s odds have been cut from +450 to +125 over the weekend as the second choice to win that award.
Connor McDavid, who registered a goal and four points in the Game 4 win, went from +1700 to +700 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at FanDuel.
If Florida wins the Stanley Cup, the Conn Smythe Trophy winner will very likely go to their top performer in the clinching victory.
If Edmonton wins the Stanley Cup, there’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that McDavid will win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
Let’s see if the Oilers can defy the odds one more time.
A FanDuel Best Bet For Game 5 Of The NBA Finals
While hockey fans wait for the Stanley Cup Final to resume on Tuesday night, we get another elimination game in the NBA tonight as the Boston Celtics get another opportunity to clinch a championship.
NBA teams are 156-0 all-time when leading 3-0 in a best-of-seven playoff series.
The Celtics are -3500 to win the title and a 6.5-point favourite for Game 5 on their home floor tonight.
The Dallas Mavericks are +1400 to win the championship and +215 to extend the series with a win in Boston.
With a win tonight, the Celtics would finish with an 80-21 record for the 2023-24 season.
That .792 win percentage would be the second-best in a season in franchise history.
Coming off the third-largest loss in franchise postseason history and their largest loss this season, I expect the Celtics to respond in Game 5 tonight.
Since 2005, teams that lost in the NBA Finals by 30 points or more went 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in the following game.
Boston has won each of its previous five games on its home floor and is 45-6 at TD Garden this season.
Speaking of a bounce back opportunity, Jaylen Brown is coming off his worst performance of the playoffs after being held to just 10 points in Friday’s loss.
Prior to Game 4, Brown had recorded at least 20 points on at least 50 per cent shooting in seven straight games – tying Larry Bird for the longest postseason streak in franchise history.
A big part of the problem was a lack of finish at the rim and a lack of minutes in a blowout loss.
I expect both of those factors to flip tonight.
Brown leads the association in paint points this postseason and coming off his worst performance, he should be motivated in a potential title-clinching game in Boston.
His points prop is currently over/under 24.5 at FanDuel.
Brown is the favourite to win NBA Finals MVP at -230.
After averaging 24.3 points per game and scoring 20+ points in each of the first three games of the series, I’ll bank on Brown to bounce back tonight.
16 years ago today, the Celtics won the NBA title.
It would be great if they could clinch again tonight.
I’ll lock in a FanDuel Same Game Parlay with Jaylen Brown 20+ points and the Celtics money line at -160 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Game 5 of the NBA Finals.
Hopefully, we can stay hot with FanDuel Best Bet winner.
One more thing…
Speaking of a big win, I want to give a special shout out to my incredible wife Maria.
Today is our seven-year wedding anniversary.
Reflecting on the past seven years and the nearly two decades of memories together since I first met you fills my heart with immense gratitude and joy.
You are a remarkable partner, mother, and my best friend through every twist and turn of life.
Happy Anniversary, my love.