Oilers top final NHL power ranking of the season

As current Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson once famously said, “The time is nigh.”

The end of the regular season is upon us as we present our final Power Rankings. Will our list be prophetic about which teams enjoy playoff success? We’ll find out before long.

Our top-ranked Canadian team heading into the playoffs is not the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets.

The Edmonton Oilers, winners of three straight games, including Sunday’s 4-1 win over the Jets, jump from 12th on our list to third. Connor McDavid has returned from injury with a vengeance, scoring nine points in his past three games, all assists.

The main reason the Oilers sit higher than the Jets is our model valuing process over results. Edmonton has the best expected goal differential of any team in the NHL, while the Jets sit 12th. That said, Edmonton’s numbers have dipped over the past couple of months compared to the first half of the season.

The Jets also have an MVP candidate in net as Connor Hellebuyck will look to put last season's playoff performance behind him.

The Jets remain fifth on our list and should be looked at as a serious threat to make a deep run in the postseason. Not only do the Jets have Hellebuyck in goal, they are a stingy defensive team in front of him. Winnipeg has allowed the fewest slot shots of any team in the NHL and rank seventh in expected goals against. Our playoff probability model currently gives the Jets a 68 per cent chance of facing the St. Louis Blues in the first round.

Up one spot, from eighth to seventh, are the Toronto Maple Leafs. As we said last week, our model seems to be coming around on the Leafs as being a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference.

The Leafs have won seven of their past eight games and are all but assured a first-round date with the Ottawa Senators. Toronto has a league-best 1.50 goals-against average in April and is likely better positioned in goal than it has been in recent memory. Anthony Stolarz leads the league in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes - 0.68 and sits second in save percentage - .923. Toronto has built its team under Craig Berube to finally succeed in the post-season. We are about to find out if it will.

Up one spot, from 13th to 12th, are the Ottawa Senators. The Sens are locked into the top wild-card spot in the East and have a 97 per cent chance of facing the Maple Leafs in the first round, according to our playoff probability model.

Ottawa should be a dangerous first-round opponent for a couple of reasons - the main one being the level of goaltending Linus Ullmark is providing right now. Ullmark has won six of his past seven starts and leads the NHL with 9.43 goals saved above expected during that time.

The big question for the Sens: Will Brady Tkachuk return from injury for Game 1 of the playoffs, and if so, will he resemble the Tkachuk we saw at the 4 Nations Face-Off? If he does, the Battle of Ontario should be an extremely competitive one.

The Calgary Flames are up eight spots, from 25th to 17th, on our list. While the Flames playoff hopes are still hanging by a thread, you have to commend this team for staying in the fight.

The Flames have won three of their past four games and sit two points back of the Blues for the final playoff spot in the West. Calgary does have a game in hand and a 16 per cent chance of making the postseason according to our model.

Dustin Wolf, the Flames rookie sensation in goal, will likely be a Calder Trophy finalist and has been the biggest reason the Flames are still in the mix with just a few days left in the season.

Up one spot, from 20th to 19th, are the Vancouver Canucks. It has been a disappointing season for a team that won its division last season only to miss the playoffs the next.

Vancouver rode some unsustainable percentages last season, especially offensively. The Canucks scored on a higher percentage of its rush chances than any team last year, and that number regressed to the league average this season. Between Thatcher Demko missing a majority of the season to injury, Elias Pettersson struggling offensively and J.T. Miller being dealt, the Canucks were never able to gain traction in a tough Pacific Division.

Ending on a positive note, the Montreal Canadiens are up three spots, from 23rd to 20th, and are inching closer to a playoff berth. The Habs are three points up on the Columbus Blue Jackets for the final playoff spot in the East with two games remaining. Montreal will look to clinch a berth in the postseason with a win Monday night against the Chicago Blackhawks.

The Habs are riding the success of its top line and standout rookie defenceman Lane Hutson. Since the trade deadline, the Cole Caufield-Nick Suzuki-Juraj Slafkovsky line has scored more goals (16) and has the best goal differential at five-on-five (+10) of any line in the NHL.

As for Hutson, he is a lock to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year. Hutson is two assists back of tying the single-season assist record for rookie defencemen of 60.

We hope you have enjoyed our Power Rankings this season. Enjoy the final week of the regular season and the playoffs!