Winning and covering consistently as a favourite isn’t easy to do in the NFL.

If you needed another reminder of exactly that, we got one on Thursday Night Football.

The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles beat the one-win Houston Texans by 12 points to improve to 8-0.

While the Eagles never appeared to be at risk of actually losing the game, anybody who bet them -13.5 at FanDuel was left disappointed after Philadelphia failed to cover.

Home underdogs have had a lot of success in recent years, including a perfect 5-0 against the spread this season when getting 7+ points at FanDuel.

Home dogs getting 12+ points are 5-3 straight up and 7-1 against the spread over the last two seasons.

Those numbers are that much more relevant this week, because after Houston covered against the Eagles, we still get two more games that feature double-digit spreads at FanDuel.

The Buffalo Bills are an 11.5-point favourite for Sunday’s game against the New York Jets.

The Kansas City Chiefs are up to -12.5 for their clash with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday Night Football.

Here are our TSN EDGE staff pick FanDuel Best Bets for this NFL Sunday.

Domenic Padula: Gerald Everett over 48.5 receiving yards

The Los Angeles Chargers will be without Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. 

That means they will need to lean even more on the third-most targeted playmaker in their offence in tight end Gerald Everett, who has averaged 43.6 receiving yards per game this season.

Everett is coming off a five-catch, 63-yard performance on nine targets in a Week 7 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

After two weeks to prepare for this clash, Everett is in the perfect position to put up his best numbers of the season against an Atlanta defence that has allowed 69.0 receiving yards per game to the tight end position. 

I’ll make Everett over 48.5 receiving yards my FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday’s games.

Eric Cohen: Raheem Mostert over 66.5 rushing yards

I try to keep things simple with my best bets, and it’s worked out well as I have only lost one of them this season. 

This one also seems pretty obvious, but how do you not take Raheem Mostert to go over 66.5 rushing yards vs Chicago? The Bears are awful against the run giving up 156 yards per game on the ground. Only the Houston Texans have a worse run defence. Last week Tony Pollard torched the Bears for 131 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 14 carries!!! Mostert who has averaged just under 75 rushing yards per game since Week 4 must be licking his chops getting ready to face a defence that just traded Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away ahead of the NFL trade deadline. 

The Bears defence was terrible against the run before the deadline but now not only did they ship off 2 of their better defenders, but the players that are left are questioning what direction the team is heading in. While Mostert might not be able to match the incredible performance Pollard had last week he should see plenty of opportunities to easily eclipse this number. I expect the Dolphins to be able to light up the scoreboard, something they had consistently done with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle all healthy. Playing with the lead show allow the Dolphins to lean on the running game throughout the second half. I like our chances to cash this ticket by the third quarter!

Chris Amberley - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 

This is more of a bet against the Rams than on the Bucs. The line currently sits at Tampa Bay -3, but we’re buying a half point just in case the Bucs win by a field goal.

Both of these teams have disappointed so far, but LA’s struggles are more concerning. The Rams rank 23rd on offence per DVOA, and 30th in points per game.

Matthew Stafford grades out 25th among starting quarterbacks per Pro Football Focus, while the offence relies too much on Cooper Kupp, who’s currently banged up. To make matters worse, the offensive line has been decimated by injuries and gives up sacks at the league’s third-highest rate.

Defensively, they can stop the run, but they’re a mess against the pass. That plays right into Tampa Bay’s strengths. 

The Bucs now attack almost exclusively through the air. The Rams rank 19th in pass defence per DVOA, and second last in pressure rate. Give Tom Brady time to throw, and you’re in trouble.

Brady averages 7.1 yards per attempt with a 70% completion rate from a clean pocket this season, compared to 4.2 yards per attempt and a 40% completion rate under pressure.

Connor Ford: Justin Jefferson Anytime TD 

Touchdown regression is coming for Justin Jefferson, and it begins this week. 

Believe it or not, Jefferson hasn’t scored a receiving touchdown since he had two in the season opener against Green Bay. Six games is the longest he’s gone without a touchdown catch in his young career. He did score a rushing touchdown in week four, but even Jefferson himself said, “that doesn’t count in my eyes.” 

As a bettor, I don’t really care how he scores as long as he gets in. Here’s why I think he has a great shot of doing so this week.

The underlying numbers suggest that Jefferson is due. His 12 red zone targets are tied for the third most in the NFL, yet he only has one touchdown inside the 20s. That’s just an 8.33% touchdown rate. I expect that number to creep closer to his 31.8% rate from last season. 

Jefferson faces a Commanders defence that’s allowed 14 receiving touchdowns, tied for the third-highest mark in the league. Opponents aren’t afraid to throw it against them, especially in the red zone.

Luckily for Jefferson, Kirk Cousins has the second-most completions in the red zone this season (30). According to Establish The Run, the Vikings are second in Pass Rate Over Expectation in that area of the field. The opportunities have been there. They just simply haven’t connected. I think that will change on Sunday. 

Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown is my FanDuel Best Bet. 

Evan Render – Sam Ehlinger Under 200.5 passing yards

Not going to lie I didn’t love the board this week, so I’m digging a little deep on this one. The Colts/Patriots game is one that stood out to me as a game where I’m fairly confident in a particular side struggling to do much, and that’s Indy on the offensive side. I’m not sure how, with Sam Ehlinger at the helm, they’re putting up points and moving the ball up-field. Not to mention no Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, plus a patched-up offensive line that hasn’t been able to stop a nosebleed through 8 weeks. 

The team total always worries me in case of defensive touchdowns and short fields, so I’m going to stick with a player prop here. 

Ehlinger barely beat this number (finished with 201 yards passing) against Washington at home, in a much more ideal situation for a young quarterback. Now he has to travel to New England, which isn’t the home-field advantage it once was, but still a tough place to play. Rest assured Bill Belichick will have something cooking to prevent this passing attack from stretching the field at all. I don’t see Ehlinger having much time or any resemblance of a clean pocket to stretch the field. He’ll have to do it with his legs, something the Patriots have had problems preventing all season. 

This number is simply too low for me in a game that I feel could be very low-scoring. 

Give me Sam Ehlinger under 200.5 passing yards, and let’s get rolling again here. 

Luke Bellus: Raheem Mostert Longest Rush Over 15.5 

I’m going to piggyback off my good pal Eric Cohen and ride with Raheem Mostert. 

When Cohen first flagged Mostert’s prop down to me this week, I loved it. 

And since I knew he would take his rushing over as his best bet, I wanted to get in on the action and try to find us a double-winner. 

And I think we’ve found it. 

Four of the last seven running backs to face this defence have had at least one carry go over this number. 

With volume expected for Mostert this week, I like Cohen and my chances of cashing this week.