Grilli trade shows Jays looking for value deals

A 39-year-old right hander with a 5.29 ERA coming back from a significant injury is not the cure for Toronto’s struggling bullpen. The good news is that the Blue Jays aren’t making their latest bullpen acquisition, Jason Grilli, out to be so.

At best, Grilli represents a high-upside, low-risk investment who could pan out to a viable, high-leverage, late-inning option, with postseason experience to boot.

At worst, the Jays use Grilli as a baton passer in the middle innings to get to Roberto Osuna, Drew Storen, a healthy Brett Cecil or some yet-to-be-named arm coming down the pike.

If Grilli offers no value, then the Jays can dump him or opt not to repurchase his contract next season. The Atlanta Braves are still on the hook for a good chunk of this year’s salary, and the prospect given up to acquire Grilli, Sean Ratcliffe, wasn’t really a prospect at all. 

But the Grilli acquisition represents something more than just the sum of his career numbers as plugged into the Blue Jays bullpen equation. The trade is this new front office regime saying to the club — and all who would listen — "we’re proactive." 

While the Jays do historically have a penchant for adding aging veterans to the pen, like Darren Oliver and LaTroy Hawkins (I’d take either of those guys over Grilli), the team doesn’t have a penchant for doing it this early in the season. In the Alex Anthopoulos years, a lot of tires were kicked but very few cars were bought, save for the 2015 mid-season trade whirlwind that overhauled a third of the lineup. 

But the mass prospect exodus that made Anthopoulos’s all-in legend possible also plays a role in the acquisition of Grilli, and indeed, future acquisitions this season: It limits the Jays ability to go all-in again, at least with the same towering stack of trade chips.

Luckily, there aren’t many places to tinker with the Jays. The bats have been uncharacteristically cold at the start of this season, but what part of the Jays’ offence could a front office in its right mind really change? 

Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, Edwin Encarnacion, and Kevin Pillar are some of the better hitters in baseball. Troy Tulowitzki, for as much as I think he’ll never show up for the Jays, is still too close to his days of being baseball’s best shortstop to write off. Even Russell Martin, who has spent much of the season repainting the underside of the Mendoza Line, has started turning the corner. The Jays front office has to be patient with what has the potential to be the best offence in the game. 

As for the starting rotation, what more could you ask for at this point? Two major questions have been answered in the affirmative: Did J.A. Happ really turn a corner and become a reliable pitcher? Yes. Is Marco Estrada more than a one-hit wonder? Yes! 

The Jays are working with one of baseball’s most efficient rotations considering the balance of age, dollars, and effectiveness. Toronto’s rotation currently ranks third in the American League in ERA and second in opponent batting average. As a starting staff, they’ve logged the most innings of any team in the AL. Yes, you read that right. 

That 2016 innings total is pretty impressive if you recall that, in 2013, the Blue Jays rotation was nearly incapable of consistently logging more than five innings in a start, frequently forcing the bullpen to bridge the gap. The pen threw the bulk of the innings back then and was considered one of the best in baseball.

Ironically, that Jays pitching staff and this Jays pitching staff share some of same names. Cecil and Aaron Loup, both struggling this year, were stalwarts in 2013. And, if you want to know how far Happ has come, look at his 2013 Jays numbers: a 4.56 ERA in 92.2 innings across the entire season. He’s already thrown 70 innings and is sitting on a 3.02 ERA in 2016.

It just goes to show how volatile pitching can be. 

With that in mind, the Blue Jays’ front office has made moves where it makes sense to make them — in the pen, and without dumping precious prospects.

Expect to see more value trades as the season progresses. If the Jays stay in contention, they will have to find value and act on it quickly instead of wading into the free market when other teams are offering options from their own prospect pools.

Case in point: The Red Sox are team to beat in the AL East. Not simply because they are leading the division now, but because they have the means to lead it through the trade deadline. 

Boston’s dearth of prospects grants them the means and flexibility to acquire impact players. Sure, Grilli is potentially useful for the Jays at a very low-risk cost, but Boston has the means to be in the market for players like Ryan Braun, James Shields, Julio Teheran and Fernando Abad. On top of those top prospects to dangle, eating payroll has never been an issue for the Red Sox. 

The Jays can’t compete with Boston’s resources, but they can make smart, proactive trades. If the stars already in Toronto’s lineup can return to form, they may not have to.

Dirk Hayhurst is a former Major League pitcher with the Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres and a best-selling author.

www.DirkHayhurst.com

Follow him on Twitter: @thegarfoose