How Barnes’ emergence impacts Raptors’ decision-making moving forward

TORONTO – At one point, the notion that an afternoon game in San Antonio could serve as the platform for a full-fledged coming-out party would’ve seemed unlikely, if not impossible, but there are plenty of eyeballs on the Spurs these days.

With Sunday’s contest against the Raptors airing in prime time across Europe, Africa and the Middle East – 132 countries in total – basketball fans from around the globe tuned in to watch Victor Wembanyama, the long-armed multi-talented rookie phenom from France, who has become must-see TV less than two weeks into his NBA career.

The 19 year old scored 20 points in 38 captivating minutes, throwing down jaw-dropping slam dunk and blocking five shots, including a couple of vicious swats at the rim and another on the perimeter that showcased his enormous 8-foot wingspan. He didn’t disappoint, but it was another ascendant star that stole the show and made a definitive statement.

Scottie Barnes has arrived.

Toronto’s third-year forward scored 17 of his game-high 30 points during a dominant fourth quarter run that helped his club erase a 22-point deficit and force overtime, where they ultimately prevailed. Barnes was brilliant in the frame. He hit three of his four three-point attempts, including a step-back jumper that tied the game inside of the final 40 seconds. He had a pair of blocks and a couple steals, most notably the one that blew up a San Antonio inbound play at the end of regulation. He attacked in transition, bullied the Spurs in the paint and grabbed key offensive rebounds.

O.G. Anunoby hit a career-best seven triples and did an admirable job on Wemby despite giving up nine inches in the matchup, while Dennis Schroder and Jakob Poeltl each made big plays, but make no mistake, the day belonged to Barnes.

“He’s not shying away from those moments, he’s creating those moments, and I’m blessed to have a player like Scottie to put in those situations,” head coach Darko Rajakovic said following the Raptors’ 123-116 comeback win. “He’s a gamer and he loves those moments.”

Not only did Barnes will his team to an unlikely and much-needed victory, coming off a tough loss in Philadelphia and a miserable first-half showing against the Spurs, his line was literally unprecedented. According to basketball-reference, no player in the history of the NBA had ever recorded 30 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, three steals and three blocks with at least five made threes, not until Barnes did it on Sunday. It was the kind of transcendent performance that turns heads around the league and even inside of an organization.

Through seven contests, Barnes has scored 20 or more points six times, something he needed 30 games to do last season. His improved jumper passes more than just the eye test – he’s shooting 42 per cent from three-point range, up from 28 per cent last season, on nearly twice as many attempts per game (5.4). That he’s quickly establishing himself as the Raptors’ closer is not a big surprise – he led them in fourth-quarter scoring a year ago, while shooting 24-for-44 in “clutch” situations (Pascal Siakam hit three fewer shots on 14 more attempts). The difference is that Barnes is no longer waiting until those end-of-game scenarios to make his mark. With a focus on strength and conditioning this past summer, he’s getting off to quicker starts and sustaining his energy over the course of a full game.

The sample size is getting bigger and bigger with each passing game, and the leap that people expected Barnes to take as a sophomore is happening before our eyes in Year 3. We’re witnessing a 22-year-old graduate from ‘future face of the franchise’ to ‘face of the franchise,’ which alters the Raptors’ trajectory in more ways than one. Of course, if Barnes can continue to develop at or near this rate and grow into an all-star calibre player, or better, it raises their ceiling in the short and long term.

It could, and probably should, also change the way they approach the decision-making process. It’s not that they haven’t been valuing Barnes as a cornerstone piece – they’ve declined to include him in offers for Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard in consecutive summers, after all. Still, Barnes’ development needs to be considered with every personnel decision they make moving forward, and they’ve got some big ones coming up.

This is not a call to blow it up and build around Barnes, as a loud segment of the fan base has clamoured for in the past. His recent emergence reaffirms their reluctance to rebuild in full. Barnes only has a year left on his rookie deal after this season and will be eligible for a contract extension next fall. You can understand why the Raptors would prefer to nurture the former Rookie of the Year in a competitive environment, instead of subjecting him to an indefinite period of losing. The question will be: who do they surround him with to get the most out of the player and team?

In addition to Barnes’ breakout, his chemistry with Anunoby has been an early-season bright spot.

Anunoby’s ability to space the floor – he’s shooting 43 per cent on a team-high 6.8 three-point attempts per contest – without demanding the ball makes him an ideal complement to Barnes’ game on offence. However, their versatility on the defensive end is what really sets them apart as a duo. There isn’t a tandem in the league that can cover as much ground as they can, each of them capable of guarding all five positions.

The Raptors are holding opponents to 96.1 points per 100 possessions with Anunoby on the floor. For context, that’s 13.8 points fewer than Cleveland’s NBA-best defensive rating from last season. That number drops to 93.9 points per 100 possessions when Anunoby and Barnes share the court. Of the 226 NBA duos who have logged at least 120 minutes together so far, none have a better defensive rating than those two, and only three pairings have a better net rating (+21.6).

At 26 and coming off a career season – one in which he was named to his first NBA All-Defensive Team – it’s reasonable to think that Anunoby will still be in his prime as Barnes hits his.

Offensively, the fit between Barnes and Siakam has felt a bit clunkier, being that both players are at their best with the ball in their hands and neither has proven themselves to be consistent three-point shooters. That’s not to say that they can’t play off of each other – they’ve shown flashes in two years together – but it hasn’t always looked as seamless.

The bigger concern is that Siakam, who will turn 30 before the end of the season, has struggled to find his place in Rajakovic’s new system. With more movement and balance in the offence, Siakam’s usage was always going to come down, and with it, his touches, shot attempts and scoring. The hope was that using him off the ball more often would help create better looks for the eight-year vet and improve his efficiency. So far, that hasn’t been the case.

Through seven games, Siakam is shooting 41 per cent, which would be a career low, and averaging 15.4 points, his worst mark since he became a full-time starter in 2018. If you exclude his gem against Milwaukee last week, he’s averaging 13.7 points on 37 per cent shooting. His usage rate is down from a team-high 27.0 per cent last season to 20.8 per cent, trailing Barnes and Schroder. Meanwhile, Barnes’ usage is up from 20.0 per cent to 25.0 per cent.

As he indicated ahead of the season, team president Masai Ujiri and the Raptors front office want to see how this team and its pending free agents look in a new system before making any big decisions, one way or another, and they’re going to need more than a couple weeks to do that. They’re not trading anyone on the whim of seven games, let alone an all-star off to a slow start. The trade market is generally quiet at this time of the year, anyway. Not unlike the Raptors, teams need time to figure out who they are, who they can become, what they have and what they need. Once mid-December hits and most of the players who signed new contracts this past summer become trade eligible, those conversations tend to heat up.

In the time between now and the February trade deadline, the Raptors will have to explore ways of getting Siakam more involved within the context of the new offence and determine whether that can be done without coming at the expense of Barnes’ continued growth. It’s not enough for them to co-exist; they’ll have to be able to thrive together to justify paying what it will cost to retain Siakam in free agency over the summer, or to extend him prior to the end of this season.

Determining whether the trio of Barnes, Siakam and Anunoby can – and want to – thrive together is every bit as crucial to how the front office approaches the months ahead. Like Siakam, Anunoby can become an unrestricted free agent over the summer, and there should be plenty of interest in a low maintenance all-NBA defender entering his prime. Is he content with his current position, carrying a substantial nightly workload defensively while functioning as a role player on the other end of the floor? Does he want more, and does he think he can grow into something more playing behind – at minimum – Siakam and Barnes in the offensive pecking order?

Barnes’ rise, assuming it’s sustainable, simplifies things to some degree. In the NBA, you need at least one superstar to compete at a high level, but getting your hands on those types of players is the biggest challenge for most front offices. The Raptors may have found one in the former fourth-overall pick, but developing him to that level and building a championship-calibre team around him isn’t much easier. If anything, it further amplifies the magnitude of the decisions that lie ahead and puts even more pressure on the folks making them to get it all right.