Insider Trading: Cap projection likely to be announced at 4 Nations

Gino Reda is joined by TSN Hockey Insiders to discuss what the salary cap might look like next season, the trade speculation surrounding J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson with the Vancouver Canucks, Drew Doughty’s status for the 4 Nation Face-Off, and more on Insider Trading.

Gino Reda: This is going to be a big off-season. A number of the league’s top players are going to be looking for big paydays and teams may find out how much they’re going to be able to spend.

Darren Dreger: That’s the expectation and there’s no doubt that every club, player, and player agent are eager to find out what the cap projection for the 2025-26 season is going to be.

The expectation is that the NHL will unveil that secret as early as the upcoming 4 Nationals Face-Off.

They may go beyond that, not just for 2025-26, but perhaps a year or two after that as well.

There’s been much speculation on what the cap space situation might look like for next year and I’m told that it is very unlikely that it will climb above $96 million. 

So, it definitely gives general managers a bit of a head start here. For player agents of coveted guys like [Toronto Maple Leafs forwards] Mitch Marner, and John Tavares, and maybe [Carolina Hurricanes forward] Mikko Rantanen, it perhaps gives them a head start as well for their heavy lifting in negotiations ahead.

Reda: While we wait for word on that, it’s just over five weeks from the NHL trade deadline and the Vancouver Canucks may have found a suitor for Elias Pettersson.

Pierre LeBrun: It’s a little early to say that, but a team to talk about is the Columbus Blue Jackets and it’s not surprising because they have massive salary cap space.

So as the Canucks make their rounds talking to teams on both J.T. Miller, and Pettersson, the conversation with the Blue Jackets is on Pettersson.

We’ll see if preliminary discussions, which have begun very recently, can go to the next level. But I think Columbus has the same questions every other team is asking about Pettersson, including a team like the Buffalo Sabres.

Who is Elias Pettersson right now?

Is he the Pettersson of old who warranted that massive extension last season or the one that we’ve seen this past year? It has a lot of teams wondering how much they want to give up.

What I’m sensing around the market, whether it’s Miller or Pettersson, is that teams are willing to see if the Canucks are willing to bring their asking price down on either player before they engage more fully.

Reda: Elsewhere, it’s crazy to think that after two Stanley Cups and two Olympic gold medals that [Los Angeles Kings defenceman] Drew Doughty still has to audition to play for Team Canada. But given his injury situation, how closely is the Canadian brass now watching him.

Chris Johnston: They’re watching his every move at this point.

I wouldn’t call it an audition, but a little bit more of gauging where he’s at. He just made his NHL season debut on Wednesday after missing the first couple of months of the season with a fractured ankle.

It is quite fortuitous timing that the Kings are in Florida right now. That gave Doughty the opportunity to sit down and have a chat with [Team Canada and Tampa Bay Lightning head coach] Jon Cooper ahead of a decision on who will replace [Vegas Golden Knights defenceman] Alex Pietrangelo.

So obviously with Doughty’s pedigree, he’d be an excellent fit. But Team Canada has to get a sense of where he’s at physically before they can determine if he’s the guy or they should look elsewhere.

Dreger: How about throwing Doughty right into the fire on Wednesday night? He played almost 24 minutes against the Florida Panthers.

His health is there. It felt good before, it felt good after, and it feels good on this day as well.

So, there’s no bigger picture concerns in terms of load management. Jokingly, one of the members of the Kings management group said, “he only played eight and a half minutes of the first period on Wednesday.”

That’s load management for Doughty.

But his game came at the expense of young defenceman Brandt Clarke. Yeah, there was a little bit of undercurrent of speculation about if he could be in play.

He’s not in play. He’s a young defenceman who just experienced how tough it is to stay in the NHL.

So, this is nothing but a recharge for Clarke.

Reda: Speaking of defencemen, Montreal Canadiens blueliner Kaiden Guhle is out indefinitely to repair a nasty cut on his quadricep. How does this affect the Canadiens between now and the deadline?

LeBrun: It really doesn’t. The bigger picture still trumps all for the Canadiens.

Obviously, it’s a brutal injury and it will hurt their chances of trying to make the playoffs. But the reality is they’re going to stay with their current plan.

They’re not going to go out and try to replace Guhle with a rental defenceman and pay the rental prices that you would to salvage the season that way.

The Canadiens have had discussion with teams. They kind of trade that they would make, even before the injury, would be the kind of trades you would do in June or July. For example, a bigger impact deal that can help this team beyond this season. That’s really where their focus is.

Having said that, their version of being buyers would be staying in the race between now and March 7 and keeping a lot of their pending unrestricted free agents.

As Dreger once coined it, their own rentals, that would be their version of buying.

Reda: It’s not unheard of for a team to waive a player when they no longer see a fit there. But it’s a totally different story when the player agrees to have his contract terminated and walk away from millions of dollars. But that’s the deal with Brandan Saad and the St. Louis Blues.

Johnston: Yes, and it’s a unique situation.

As of Friday afternoon, he’ll be free to sign with any NHL team and you usually don’t see free agency at the end of January.

Because of the unique circumstances here, we’re expecting at least a handful of contending teams to kick the tires on Saad. They love the fact that they don’t have to give up anything to get him beyond the cap space it takes to sign him.

One of those teams I expect to make a real push are the Maple Leafs. Obviously, Toronto is in the market for a centre, but they’re interested in seeing if Saad sees a fit with them as a potential wing option.

He’s going to have options and what the cost is will be a determining factor for some of these teams because Saad did walk away from money. He’s not going to come cheap necessarily.