Everyone loves an underdog, especially at home. But this Saturday, there are two (!) home underdogs, and one of them is practically a pick’em as the Nashville Predators are at -105 on the moneyline against the New York Islanders. Yuck. In other words, a different strategy is necessary. Here are a few favourites whose lines are underpriced versus what they might be for the same matchup in a month.

 

New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins

Saturday, October 30 – 7 PM ET

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been outscored 9-1 in their last two contests. For those who haven’t watched the games, the team appears to be crumbling without Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Carter, Kris Letang and Bryan Rust in the lineup. But that isn’t accurate. True, the Penguins’ goaltending in those games has been less than stellar (more on this later). But when the games have been within a goal at 5-on-5, the Penguins have controlled play, posting a 59.09 expected goals and besting their opponents in high-danger chances.

In their past two games, the Penguins have been felled by counterattacks, and once trailing, things have snowballed. Still, for long stretches of play, Pittsburgh has exhibited the type of grinding game that coach Mike Sullivan has cultivated in the absence of the team’s stars.

Pittsburgh’s forecheck is proficient at creating turnovers and funneling the puck toward the net and slot. As usual, there are plenty of shot-passes from the point. The Penguins’ hustle has created eight power-play chances in those games, but with only one conversion. Last Saturday, the Penguins crushed the Toronto Maple Leafs, largely by capitalizing on Toronto’s poor puck management and powering the puck to the net.

The Devils’ offence without Jack Hughes is a work in progress. With Hughes injured, Nico Hischier is being leaned on for No. 1 centre duties, but he doesn’t carry the same propulsive force as No. 86. The Penguins like to use the Teddy Blueger line against their opponent’s top line, so it will be interesting to see if Sullivan deploys it against Hischier or against another line he views as more potent.

The Penguins will be smarting from two consecutive blowout losses. They just experienced two abjectly bad goaltending performances, with Tristan Jarry submitting a -0.92 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Casey DeSmith one-upping him with a -1.34 GSAx against the Calgary Flames. DeSmith had a poor effort prior to his Calgary game, while Jarry, Saturday’s likely starter, had been good up until Tuesday, proffering a 2.64 GSAx in four games.

The Devils’ goaltending catastrophe seems to be over, with Nico Daws being sent to the minors, but I’m skeptical that better goaltending will be enough. Add in the possibility of Sidney Crosby making his season debut, and I love Pittsburgh here.

Pick: Penguins -145

 

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

Saturday, October 30 – 9 PM ET

At least one person in your life has lamented that they did not invest in Bitcoin or cryptocurrency before it spiked. Feeling sad about missed opportunities seems hard-wired into the human condition. Well, with the Colorado Avalanche at 3-4, I think bettors are presented with a wonderful chance to buy low on a Colorado team that last season won the Presidents’ Trophy and has a solid chance to win the Central Division.

The Avs aren’t exactly the same team as last season when they had Vezina Trophy finalist Philipp Grubauer. Now they have a goaltending nightmare. Only Carter Hutton and Marc-Andre Fleury have worse GSAx’s than Colorado’s Darcy Kuemper as of this writing. With Arizona last season, Kuemper didn’t submit an amazing campaign, but his -0.95 GSAx seems desirable by comparison. Stranger yet, Kuemper was the second-best goalie in the metric to Connor Hellebuyck in 2019-20. Admittedly, bad things happen to goaltenders once they get past 30, but I’m dubious that Kuemper at 31 years old is this bad. I think an improvement is coming, especially with how Colorado is playing in front of him.

Last season, the Avs had nerds high fiving across North America as they ran circles around their opponents and posted spectacular analytics. This season, they are not first, but still a top-five team in metrics like expected goals and high-danger chances. In fact, the Avalanche’s high-danger chances percentage is slightly better this season than it was in 2020-21.

The Minnesota Wild present an interesting foil. The Avalanche beat the Wild in five of eight games last season, and Minnesota only mustered an expected goals per 60 minutes of 1.63 in those matchups. But the Avalanche’s defensive corps is thin right now, and it will be intriguing to see if Minnesota exposes Colorado when the Avs run their high-low interchanges in the offensive zone.

Minnesota is adept at fronting the puck and initiating counterattacks, and the Avs’ transition defence has been inconsistent. Furthermore, as dazzling as Colorado’s speed and puck-handling can be, its puck management can be loose. The Colton Parayko goal on Thursday was a convergence of all the Avs’ worst qualities. And yet, they beat the St. Louis Blues because they got goal contributions from three different lines, and those looking for a spark from Nathan MacKinnon saw it when he had a few jaw-dropping moments.

The Wild’s Mats Zuccarello is in COVID protocol. If he doesn’t play Saturday, that is a problem, as Thursday night highlighted. Minnesota coach Dean Evason played Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek with several different linemates against Seattle, and none of these combos popped. If Zuccarello is missing on Saturday, the Wild’s depth, which is its best asset, gets tested.

Conversely, Mikko Rantanen should be returning for Saturday, rounding out the Avalanche’s top line. An Avalanche defeat to the Wild would mean Colorado falls to 1-3 on home ice this season. Of the Avalanche’s three losses to the Wild last season, two were on the road. Good teams win at home, and I think Colorado topples a pesky Wild team.

Pick: Avalanche -160


Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks

Saturday, October 30 – 10 PM ET

When you have an amazing power play, it flattens out the wrinkles of even-strength play. The Oilers have had the best power play in the NHL over the last two seasons, and in 2019-20 they almost eclipsed 30 per cent, an achievement that has not happened since the late 1970s. Folks, the Oilers are now scoring on 42.9 per cent of their power plays. On Saturday, they could shred their opponent as they will be facing a bottom-10 penalty kill.

Compounding the Vancouver Canucks’ struggles to defend the man advantage, this team has in recent seasons struggled with discipline. The Canucks have ranked in the top 10 in penalties taken per 60 minutes over the last two seasons. They’ve been better with infractions this season, but a creep toward their habitual lack of discipline may be afoot. The Flyers had five power plays against Vancouver Thursday night. For Vancouver to win on Saturday, they need to play Lady-Byng-style hockey. For a team that is usually chasing the puck, I am skeptical.

With the Canucks, it is not just that they are chasing the puck as much as the quality of chances they forfeit. They rank last in the NHL in expected goals and high-danger chances. Their defensive group is one of the worst in the NHL, and they will be tasked with stopping Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Leon Drasaitl, who are top-five in points and top-three among forwards in goals above replacement. Conversely, two of the Canucks’ primary players, Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson, are -1.7 and -1 in even-strength offence goals above replacement. Boeser and Pettersson exemplify the Canucks’ difficulties getting shots on goal and scoring.

Is the Canucks’ offence or defence broken? Sometimes, the answer can be both. Against the Flyers on Thursday night, the Canucks almost fell behind 2-0 less than two minutes into the game because their third forward high forgot that he needed to cover over the top when his defenceman pinches on the weak side on the forecheck.

One danger with fading Vancouver last season was the ability of goaltender Thatcher Demko to snatch a victory despite a subpar effort by the Canucks’ skaters. Demko has been good this season, but so has Mikko Koskinen for the Oilers. And after a poor showing by Koskinen on Wednesday night against Philadelphia, one would expect a strong bounce-back.

One under-the-radar reason Edmonton is doing so well is that Evan Bouchard, former top-10 pick from 2018, has been installed in the lineup and is playing strong top-four-calibre hockey. Bouchard’s emergence allows the Oilers to split up Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie. The Canucks will try to slow the game down, make Edmonton defend them on the cycle, and keep the game low scoring. Nevertheless, the Canucks’ limitations are too daunting, especially playing their third game in five days against a well-rested Edmonton team coming off a loss.

Pick: Oilers -140