After a spate of bad news that populated the headlines leading up to and throughout the holiday break, the NHL is back this weekend.

Thank goodness.

The NHL slate is a little lighter with fewer games scheduled than we are accustomed to seeing on a Saturday, and some of the most competitive lines can swing with one or two players unexpectedly dropping out. For this reason, I’m hewing toward teams that can still win even if they lose a few players before game time.

Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers
Saturday, January 1 – 1:00PM ET

No question about it: These are two teams headed in opposite directions. Montreal is currently experiencing very bad luck. The team’s back end is decimated with its goaltenders and top defencemen in COVID protocol. Important forwards like Tyler Toffoli, Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson are injured. The Canadiens can’t score; indeed, only the Arizona Coyotes are worse in goals scored per game. Even their special teams are a train wreck. And on Saturday, they get the Florida Panthers, a team brimming with skill and depth that is finally healthy again. Gulp.

If you watched certain iconic boxing movies as a kid, you could have been duped into thinking boxing was two fighters trading haymakers. It was only when you tuned into the real version that you realized it is a more methodical, patient sport.

Watching the Panthers is the closest you will get to a cinematized version of a sport. It’s all action. Somehow, the Panthers are always sprinting through centre ice. In video game fashion, everyone goes full turbo all the time. Whichever Florida player is on the fringe of the screen is going to get the puck wide open because the Panthers kill teams with their players off the puck.

Even their defencemen will charge up the ice and lead a rush without hesitation, regardless of whether they have coverage over the top! The Panthers’ games feature a barrage of chances for both sides, with Florida enjoying the majority of them against weaker opponents.

At 5-on-5, on a 60-minute basis, the Panthers put eight more shots on goal than the Canadiens. That’s a big disparity, folks. Even if Montreal has success challenging the Panthers’ entries and forces them to dump and chase, I still expect most of the game to be spent in the offensive zone with the Panthers whipping the puck around and smashing shots on net.

The Panthers explode out of their zone on breakouts, so hemming them in will be a tall task. Montreal’s best chance of scoring might be via stretch passes and counterattacks, an objective that might be accomplished by Cole Caufield’s and Nick Suzuki’s lines, but which seems more far-fetched with the rest of the below-replacement-level roster.

Furthermore, the Panthers run a ton of set plays on faceoffs and regroups. I am curious to see if a young Montreal squad can withstand Florida’s well-orchestrated puck movement, especially since all five skaters on Florida are a threat to attack.

I generally view the puck line as one of the worst bets in hockey. But Montreal is fielding a weak squad with several missing pieces, and Florida has posted 13 goals in two games since the NHL returned to play. Compounding matters, Montreal’s presumptive starter, Sam Montembeault, has a -5.11 GSAx in 10 games this season. The Panthers could win this game by four or five. They need to win by two. I’ll grab the puck line.

Pick: Panthers -150

Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets
Saturday, January 1 – 1:00PM ET

A team can be a reflection of a coach’s personality. For a long time, that was true with the Blue Jackets and John Tortorella. But the hardnosed, shot-blocking, neutral-zone-stymying Blue Jackets teams that Torts commandeered have been transformed under first-year head coach Brad Larsen.

The current iteration of the Blue Jackets is far more rush-centric. They are more freewheeling with their puck management and less attentive in their gap control. And while they had a courageous 4-3 comeback victory over the Nashville Predators Thursday night, I think their opponent on Saturday, the Carolina Hurricanes, is a bad matchup for them.

One large, possibly insurmountable, issue is the Blue Jackets’ own-zone struggles against a Hurricanes offence that is elite. In shots against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, the Blue Jackets allow a whopping 34 shots per hour. In expected goals against and high-danger chances surrendered, they rank in the bottom 10. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes rank first in offensive-expected goals and high-danger chances.

I anticipate the Hurricanes will be eager to bury their opponent on the forecheck, hemming the Blue Jackets in their own end for long periods of time. This is an especially perilous scenario because Columbus can get sloppy in its defensive coverage. When the Blue Jackets start running around, the weak side opens up and they box out poorly around the net.

Furthermore, I think Carolina will find opportunity off counterattacks. Columbus’s Patrik Laine line with Jakub Voracek and Boone Jenner is dependent on creating chances off the rush. But when Carolina’s defencemen step up to deny their entries or disrupt their short-to-intermediate passes in the neutral zone, I think Carolina will be able to catch Laine and Co. beneath the puck and strike in transition.

The Blue Jackets benefited against the Predators on Thursday night because Nashville was tired, playing the second game of a back-to-back. This showed up in ways like the Predators ceding the entire neutral zone to Columbus for most of the third period, giving the Blue Jackets ample opportunity to carry the puck up ice and get rush chances. Nashville was also missing its best defenceman, Roman Josi, and an awful turnover by Ben Harpur late in the third period gave Columbus the chance to tie the game.

It is a bad time for the Blue Jackets to face the Hurricanes. Carolina is basically back to full health, and even if Columbus gets Oliver Bjorkstrand back, the Hurricanes’ distinct advantage at 5-on-5 and on special teams could lead to a romp. Add in the Hurricanes being an elite road team that has spectacular analytics away from their own arena, and I like Carolina to take care of business. In uncertain times, this bet looks appetizing.

Pick: Hurricanes -160

Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators
Saturday, January 1 – 2:00PM ET

Shhhh. Nashville is quietly surging. The Predators have gone 7-2-1 in their last ten games. They occupy a top-three playoff spot in the Central, albeit with Colorado having five games in hand. Overall, the Predators are playing to brand, which is exceeding expectations amidst a chorus of doubters.

Under head coach Derek King, the Blackhawks have cinched up their gaps in the neutral zone and are being stingy in denying clean entries. Chicago has become a defence-first club, with a marching order to hinder its opponents’ transition offence. But the Predators will be happy to impose a physical forecheck, and they have a cast of hulking forwards who will dole out punishment on a Blackhawks’ defensive group that, with the exception of Seth Jones, doesn’t have the wheels to escape the pressure of the Predators’ forecheckers.

The Predators are indiscriminate in their shooting selection. They will blast pucks from all over the ice and will have at minimum two players in front of the net looking to deflect the shot and/or screen the goaltender -- then they’ll quickly pivot and battle for the rebound. The Predators may lack the skill of the NHL’s elite, but they understand that hammering shots toward the net is their way of gaining access to the low slot.

In the month of December, the Predators are killing teams in the analytics. They are first in expected goals and high-danger chances percentage, but the reason they are dominating has more to do with their defensive play than their offensive influence. Obtaining quality chances on this team has been nearly impossible.

It makes sense. The Predators have been outstanding at thwarting teams in the neutral zone with their 1-3-1. And when you chip the puck deep, either their goaltender, Juuse Saros, can play it, or the defensive group has the mobility to skate the puck into space and out of trouble.

Exacerbating concerns for the Blackhawks is their offensive struggles under King, as their goals scored per hour at 5-on-5 has been fourth worst in the NHL. It improved in December after an eye-sore of a November, but if they are to win, I expect it to be a game with three goals or less.

Can the Blackhawks win with defence? After all, Marc-Andre Fleury has been outstanding since King took over, boasting a 5.79 Goals Saved Above Expected. But during that same timespan, Saros has a slightly better GSAx. If the Predators get Josi back for Saturday, they will essentially have their full complement rostered.

The Blackhawks haven’t played since December 18th and getting Nashville in your first game back is an unforgiving way to reacclimatize. The Predators have a solid home record, but the underlying numbers suggest they emphatically dictate play at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators haven’t lost three straight all season. I expect Nashville to return to its winning ways on Saturday.

Pick: Predators -175