Adversity can be found almost everywhere at playoff time.

For the Toronto Maple Leafs, splitting at home against a scrappy but fickle Montreal Canadiens squad is concerning, and compounding their lacklustre start is the loss of captain John Tavares for the foreseeable future.

Are the Maple Leafs vulnerable? Or are they resilient?

To a striking degree, Montreal bottled up Toronto in Game 1. Toronto finished with an expected goals of 1.24 at 5-on-5 and fewer high-danger chances than Montreal. Auston Matthews’ line didn’t score; nor did the power play. The Maple Leafs looked top-heavy at forward and like they might be at a disadvantage in goal.

Game 2 flipped the script. Toronto dismantled Montreal at 5-on-5 and on the man advantage. The Canadiens lacked discipline and appeared out of their depth in terms of rostered talent.

Strategically, Montreal did appear to make an adjustment for the second game.

The only goal the Leafs tallied in Game 1 came when the Canadiens had three forecheckers deep below the circles. When the puck was moved to the Leafs’ outlet, the Montreal forward who was deputizing for his pinching defenceman tried to step up and halt the breakout play. Not much later in the sequence, Toronto’s William Nylander stuffed the puck in the back of net.

The Canadiens’ approach to Game 2 looked like an overcorrection to this aggression, as they embraced a more conservative posture. Montreal dedicated only a few bodies to the forecheck and had its defencemen exercise more restraint on pinches and be less confrontational in the neutral zone. (On the gruesome Tavares injury sequence in Game 1, it is notable that the initial collision came off Ben Chiarot jamming Tavares just above the blueline.)

For Game 2, the Canadiens envisioned that victory could be achieved through a banal, low-event game that would insulate them from the Maple Leafs’ speed and skill. Unfortunately for them, this plan of attack badly misfired.

The Jesperi Kotkaniemi goal that kick-started the game’s scoring ironically reinforced the misbegotten Montreal strategy.

The Kotkaniemi goal was achieved with a light touch on the forecheck despite Toronto’s heavy manpower advantage around the net. Montreal finished with nine shots at 5-on-5 in the final two frames. Offence was wanting.

The soft footprint of the Canadiens’ forecheck in Game 2 allowed the Maple Leafs to carry the puck through the neutral zone with speed, or to ferry the puck past centre ice and chuck it to an area where a forechecker could pin the Montreal defenceman and scoop up possession. This resulted in Toronto spending almost the entire game in Montreal’s end and Montreal taking foolish penalties out of frustration.

By the third period, the Canadiens’ puck management hit rock bottom.

In Game 1, the Montreal forwards were better at back pressure and the defencemen were more emboldened, making the neutral zone more congested than in Game 2. But the Canadiens also had some good fortune in the series’ first game, such as Joe Thornton choosing to make an east-west pass across the middle of the ice that led to a turnover and sparked a Josh Anderson breakaway.

With a less hostile opponent on Saturday night, Toronto was able to manage the puck cleanly and counterattack chances weren’t there for Montreal.

Matthews’ goal is one devastating example of the diminished defensive support from the Montreal forwards in Game 2.

Mitch Marner was able to get separation from Paul Byron in the neutral zone to act as the playmaking catalyst; seconds later, Matthews breezed by Byron for the rebound goal.

If Montreal wants to win a low-scoring contest with few scoring chances, its forwards all need to be relentless in taking away time and space from Toronto.

If Montreal has any hope of winning going forward, goaltender Carey Price needs to be a difference-maker.

In Game 2, he submitted a -0.52 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), which was worse than adversary Jack Campbell. For Montreal to win, they need more of the Price from last Thursday night, when he posted the best GSAx of any goaltender playing on May 20.

Toronto opened at -315 to win the series. After winning Game 2, the Maple Leafs are currently -160 to win Game 3 and -250 to win the series.

What should we expect going forward? Montreal can activate its defencemen to goose the offence. I suspect the Canadiens’ forwards will accost the Maple Leafs every time they touch the puck, making their lives miserable in the process.

And having scored only two 5-on-5 goals through two games, I imagine Montreal will try to put as much rubber on Campbell as possible.

Finally, Montreal is wise to insert Cole Caufield in the lineup, as he could obviously help a team desperate for scoring.

 

Canadiens’ coach Dominique Ducharme threw his lines in a blender ahead of Game 3 in an effort to find some matchups he can exploit with the last change.

Regardless, the Maple Leafs have far more talent, and I think the Canadiens will struggle to test them going forward.