Will Soto sign for more than Ohtani? 

The 2024 World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers begins on Friday at Dodger Stadium. 

Los Angeles has been the favourite to win the World Series all year and that remains true in this series as they are -122 to hoist the “piece of metal” when this series is over. IYKYK.

You can expect a full World Series preview in Morning Coffee from our very own Domenic Padula later this week, so until then let’s turn our attention to Juan Soto and the biggest conversation surrounding the 25-year-old. 

Soto will be a free agent at the end of the year, hitting the open market as one of the best players in the league with a bright future ahead of him. 

It was reported in 2022 that Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer that at the time would’ve been the largest contract in baseball history. 

Since then, Shohei Ohtani has since shattered that record when he inked a 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers last winter. Granted, a large percentage of that money will be paid out as deferrals at the end of his career, but the present-day value of Ohtani’s deal still trumps anything the sport has ever seen.

Could Soto sign for more than Ohtani? He is five years younger and if the Yankees win the series he would have led two different teams to a World Series by the age of 26. 

The Oddsmakers at FanDuel seem to think Soto getting Ohtani money is a tad far fetched and have priced him at 12-to-1 to sign a deal worth $700+ million. 

We asked former New York Mets general manager Steve Phillips for his thoughts on the size of Soto’s next contract, so let’s get to what he thinks, dive into some history and then take a look into the market and how the public has reacted to it. 

Phillips on Soto

"This year with the Yankees, Soto has put together a monster season and it’s going to turn into big time money for him. 

You don’t hire Scott Boras to send you to a place to be comfortable, or necessarily a place you’re going to win. You sign Boras to represent you to get the most money and that is, I believe, a number that can start with a seven. 

Yes, Shohei Ohtani got $700 million for 10 years, Soto is a little more than four years younger. He’s got a chance at 14-year contract and because of the extra years on the deal, I think there’s a chance Boras will work in deferrals like Ohtani did, the present value won’t be over $700 million because of deferrals, but Boras likes to set records. He’s not looking for a number starting with five or six, he’s looking for over $700 million and probably a 13- or 14-year contract. 

And Soto is going to get it. He’s going to get a record-setting contract that is going to flip this off-season upside down." 

HISTORIC DEALS 

Before we get to the market, let’s take a look at the five biggest contracts signed in MLB history, along with the age of the player when he signed the deal.

Total Figure Amount Juan Soto New Contract

MARKET REACTION 

According to the traders at FanDuel, Under $499 million has taken the most action in this market with 32 per cent of the bets. However, 95 per cent of those bets were made before the postseason started. 

The most action seen in this market since the playoffs began have come in the $650+ million and $700+ million markets with both having just around 20 per cent of bets. 

$650 million has seen the most handle at 23 per cent.

One thing to consider. As mentioned before, Ohtani’s contract was for 10 years and $700 million, but he is only receiving roughly 3 per cent of that over the next 10 years. Ohtani is being paid $2 million in salary each season by the Dodgers and is differing $68 million per season, to be paid out each year from 2034 to 2043.

If Soto elects a deal with similar framework, it could push the figure up toward Ohtani’s. But does Soto have as much international star power as Ohtani where his off-field earnings would rival his on-field salary and make a deferral an option? That’s for Soto and Boras to decide.