Morning Coffee: What are the odds the Chiefs go 17-0?

We walked the fine line between autumn’s warmth and winter’s cold this past weekend.

We also walked a very fine line between a good week and a great week when it came to my NFL Sunday picks.

One injury here, another two yards there, and we have the difference between hitting on 70 per cent of the bets and 80 per cent of the bets on another busy weekend.

Turning the page this morning, we’re on to the final stop for Week 9 in the NFL with Monday Night Football.

We also have a triple feature of NBA action across the TSN network tonight.

The coffee is hot, the information is abundant, and the year’s final colours cling to the trees outside my window as we brace for the coming chill of winter.

As we wait, I can’t think of anything I’d like better than to start the week with another pair of FanDuel Best Bet winners in this column.

After all, who’s got it better than us?

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday November 4th, 2024.

What Are The Odds The Chiefs Go 17-0?

In case you missed it, NFL Sunday Week 9 was what a close friend of mine referred to as “nightmare fuel” for the sportsbooks.

NFL favourites are 13-1 straight up and 10-4 against the spread so far this week.

Home favourites went a combined 9-0 straight up.

That trend is expected to continue tonight as the Kansas City Chiefs attempt to extend their perfect start to the season as a 9.5-point favourite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Kansas City is 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread.

The Chiefs are tracking to be a bigger favourite tonight than they have been in any other game this season.

What are the odds that Mahomes and company run the table with a perfect regular season?

Kansas City is +900 to go 17-0 at FanDuel.

That number translates to a 1-in-10 chance they run the table with an undefeated regular season.

As for tonight, there’s no reason to expect the Chiefs to lose to an injury-riddled Buccaneers side, and I lean to them covering as nearly a double-digit favourite at home.

Tampa Bay will be without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The Bucs could also be missing Bucky Irving, Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan, and Antoine Winfield due to various injuries after all those players either did not practice or were limited in practice this week.

Anything can happen on any given Sunday – or Monday if you will – but even at full strength I wouldn’t bet on Tampa Bay winning a prime-time game in Kansas City.

With that long of an injury list, it will be even tougher.

Here’s what I would play as my FanDuel Best Bets.

I’ll start with Samaje Perine over 7.5 receiving yards.

Over his last three games, Perine has 25.3 receiving yards while registering 22+ receiving yards in each of them.

Now he gets to face a Tampa Bay defence that has allowed the second-most receiving yards and the third-most receptions to opposing running backs this season.

On the flip side, the Bucs have faced the sixth-fewest running back carries this season, which means even if Kansas City has the lead in the second half as a 9.5-point favourite we could still see them use quick underneath throws and screens to get first downs.

Give me Perine over 7.5 receiving yards as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.

I’m also going to lock in a Same Game Parlay for tonight’s game with the Chiefs to win outright and Cade Otton to register both 4+ receptions and 40+ receiving yards.

Otton’s target share has spiked since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin went down with injuries.

The Bucs TE1 combined for 20 targets in back-to-back losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens.

He’s averaged 8.5 receptions and 90.5 with two touchdowns in those two games.

He also registered a catch of 28+ yards in both games.

Now Otton will face a Kansas City defence that has allowed a league-worst 7.0 receptions and 80.9 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season.

I’ll bank on at least four catches and at least 40 yards from Otton in a loss to the Chiefs as an SGP this morning at -104 odds.

The FanDuel Best Bets for Monday Night Football are locked in.

Hopefully, we can finish off Week 9 in the NFL with another prime-time game sweep.

Have a great day, everyone!