Change seems inevitable for Raptors with trade deadline looming

The last time the Toronto Raptors were getting this much league-wide attention they were well on the way to winning their first championship.

But these are different times, less than ideal circumstances, and certainly not the way anyone in the organization was hoping to be in the spotlight.

With a week to go before one of the most anticipated days on the NBA calendar – the Feb. 9 trade deadline – rumours are swirling and the team north of the border finds itself at the centre of the storm. When you’re underperforming and armed with a collection of highly coveted players in or just entering their primes, it makes you a club to watch at this time of year, and folks around basketball are waiting and watching with great interest.

The odds are almost always against a team making a move at the deadline. For all the potential deals that get bandied about leading up to it, very few actually come to fruition. Trades are hard to make, and most teams – the Raptors included – prefer to do their heavy lifting during the off-season.

But there is a growing sense that Toronto plans to be active in the coming week.

“I would be shocked if they didn’t do anything,” said one high-ranking NBA executive.

What they do is still anybody’s guess.

If president Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster are leaning in one direction or the other, they’re not showing their cards. The great thing about having players in high demand, and being so widely identified as a team that could be open for business, is that they haven’t had to make many calls.

Teams are coming to them, they’re listening to offers, and with the exception of reigning Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes – who remains off limits in trade discussions – everything is on the table, according to sources. There’s no shortage of options to mull over in the next seven days.

Theoretically, every day and every game between now and then could influence their thinking to some degree, but the extent to which their current seven-game West Coast trip might impact the decision-making process has been overstated.

At 23-30, the Raptors find themselves exactly where they didn’t want to be: 12^th place in the East, staring up at the conference’s playoff and play-in races. They’re also sixth from the bottom of the standings, giving them an 18.2 per cent chance at a top-two pick if the season ended today. If they didn’t have to consider the future, bottoming out and rolling the dice on a draft class featuring a pair of generational talents might seem more appealing.

But whatever they do or don’t do, next week will be felt beyond this season. These are major franchise-altering decisions and the people tasked with making them won’t do so on a whim.

Ujiri and Webster have had more than half the season to evaluate. After 50-plus games, you are who you are. Despite their promise, which they continue to show in flashes but not nearly consistently enough, they’ve performed like a below-average to average team. A 2-3 record through five games out West only reinforces that assessment.

By this point, Ujiri and Webster have prepared for various scenarios and are starting to formulate a plan of attack, but as they’re unlikely to make any definitive decisions until they have to – by 3 p.m. ET on Feb. 9 – the market could dictate their approach.

With parity in both conferences, there are more perceived buyers than sellers, which is why all eyes are on Toronto and its players, three or four of whom would be among the best available. But just because they can swing the balance of power in the league doesn’t mean they should or that they will. Aspiring contenders salivating at the possibility of adding Pascal Siakam, O.G. Anunoby or Fred VanVleet for the stretch run might be disappointed.

This Raptors front office has never been one to feel backed into a corner, rushed or compelled to operate on somebody else’s timeline; that’s why Ujiri is known to detest the trade deadline. He’s been patient, opting to stand pat at this time last year and then again over the summer, allowing this young core to grow together. In a decade at the helm of the franchise, he’s given his teams, players and coaches the chance to determine their own fate. He’s also shown the willingness to step in and make a change when the situation has called for it.

Change seems inevitable in some form or another. Not only has this group fallen short of expectations, they’re also about to become expensive, with almost the entire core due for new contracts or extensions over the next couple years. As it stands, this isn’t a team that’s worth making luxury tax payments for, so something’s got to give. But is now the right time?

Anunoby has been at the forefront of trade speculation dating back to the summer. The difference is, back then, he was coming off a season in which he missed 34 games, including 19 of the final 25. While the sixth-year forward will miss the rest of the road trip with a wrist sprain and may not return before the deadline, this is the healthiest he’s been since his third season.

He’s a 25-year-old all-NBA-calibre defender who shoots the ball well, plays a premium position, is signed through next season and can step into any team’s starting lineup and make an immediate impact. His value has never been higher, and for that reason alone, his market is worth exploring.

Interestingly, so much has been made about the haul of draft picks Anunoby could possibly return. If that’s what the Raptors want, they shouldn’t have trouble getting it in this market. But unless they opt to trade Siakam and start a full rebuild, which seems unlikely, dealing Anunoby for picks would be counterintuitive. As long as Siakam and VanVleet – who will both be 29 before the end of the season – are in Toronto, the goal will be to maximize their prime years. The best way to do that would be to keep Anunoby or move him for a player, or players, who can help in the near term.

Consider the deal that Indiana and Sacramento made at last year’s deadline, essentially exchanging Domantas Sabonis for Tyrese Haliburton. What seemed like a lateral move at the time has turned out to be anything but. Both organizations were trading from an area of strength to address an area of weakness and balance out their rosters, and they’re both better for it.

The Raptors’ areas of need are well documented. They aren’t expected to have cap space this summer, meaning they won’t have the means to add via free agency (outside of the mid-level exception, which they haven’t had much success with). With the recent emergence of Precious Achiuwa, as well as Siakam and Barnes playing similar positions, turning Anunoby into a paint-protecting, rim-running centre or a playmaking guard, or both, could help them solve some of the roster construction concerns.

Toronto was close to acquiring Deandre Ayton from Phoenix in a sign and trade last summer, according to a source. Perhaps there’s a deal to be made with the Suns, who are said to be one of Anunoby’s many suitors. Pacers centre Myles Turner – who just signed an extension but is still eligible to be traded – would also check off a few boxes as a shot-blocking, floor-spacing big man.

But if that’s the path they decide to take, it might make more sense to wait until the off-season, when more players are available. The Raptors have no reason to rush an Anunoby trade. He’s under contract, and reports of any rift between him and the organization have been denied internally.

There’s far more urgency to figure out what they’re going to do with their two pending free agents. VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are both expected to opt out of their contracts after this season. Technically, the Raptors have five months to decide whether they want to re-sign those guys, but they’ll essentially be making that decision next week.

A big part of the pre-deadline evaluation process has been projecting what the markets for VanVleet and Trent could look like in free agency. What will they ask for and, most importantly, what’s a realistic number for them based on the teams that might be interested and how much could have to spend? From there, they need to ask themselves whether they can justify keeping them at that cost, given the other financial commitments they’ll have to make going forward.

If either or both are traded next week it will be because that answer to that question was no. The Raptors won’t have the cap space to replace them in free agency. They also don’t have the organizational depth to let them walk for nothing. If they’re still in Toronto on Feb. 10 it’ll likely mean the team sees them as part of the long-term core, barring a sign and trade over the summer.

After a disappointing first half to his season, VanVleet has returned to all-star form recently. He’s averaging 26.7 points and 8.1 assists while shooting 42 per cent from three-point range over his past nine games, highlighted by a 34-point triple-double in Wednesday’s loss to Utah. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in the veteran point guard, although his trade value may not reflect that.

At the 2021 trade deadline, there were teams that wanted soon-to-be free agent Kyle Lowry, but they were reluctant to pay anything close to fair value because they were either afraid he’d leave a few months later or confident they could just wait and sign him outright. This could be similar, unless there’s a team that wants him badly enough and won’t have the cap space to make a run at him this summer, like the Clippers perhaps.

Still, both VanVleet and the Raptors organization have expressed their intentions to move forward together in the past, and there’s been no indication that has changed.

Trent’s situation is a bit different. His name continues to come up as the most likely Raptor to be moved ahead of the deadline, which isn’t an indictment of the player or how the team feels about him. Instead, it’s a reflection of circumstance.

At his age, 24, and with his ability to shoot and to score, he’ll be in line for a big raise this summer. As much as Toronto needs his skill set, it’s hard to reconcile spending north of $100 million on its fifth guy, especially when the sixth guy, Achiuwa – who they see as a big part of their future – can sign an extension this off-season.

So, what can they get for Trent? Draft compensation if they choose to go that route, but again, they would probably be looking for a more affordable player at a position of need. They’ve been connected to Spurs centre and former Raptor Jakob Poeltl, although that would likely require finding a third team to take Trent and send at least one first-round pick to San Antonio.

Even in that scenario, the Raptors would be plugging one hole (the centre position) at the expense of another (shooting). These are not easy decisions and there is much work to be done if they’re going to reconstruct the foundation of the roster. This has not looked like a team that’s one trade away. It’s a process that could take a series of moves over time, and might not fully take shape in the span of a few hours next Thursday.

But the trade deadline is the first step in that process, a glimpse at what comes next for the franchise. One way or another, change is coming. We’re a week away from finding out what that could look like.