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TORONTO — No matter where you turn, uncertainty reigns supreme.

Depending on the day, Major League Baseball sits somewhere between a lost season and shipping all of its players to Arizona for the baseball version of Big Brother.

Even as optimism grows that the sport will be able to avoid the worst and play some sort of truncated campaign in 2020, what that will look like, and where that will happen, are both still at the drawing-board stage.

As we wait for the health side to allow for a baseball plan to emerge over the next few weeks, we’ll begin taking a look at the big names who will become free agents this winter – whether a season is played or not.

Before we get to the list of the top 25 free agents, let’s attempt to answer a few pressing questions pertaining to the process.
 

Will players still become free agents if the season is wiped out?

This was the first order of business for Tony Clark’s players’ association when the shutdown began March 12, and they hammered out a deal with owners in late March to preserve service time and make sure all scheduled free agents would hit the market this winter, season or no season.

If no games are played, all 40-man roster players will receive the same amount of service time they accrued in 2019.

If a partial season is played, the service time will simply be prorated over a usual 186-day calendar.
 

How will the lost revenue from 2020 affect the market?

The easy answer is “to be determined” but the obvious answer is “everyone will be affected.”

It’s not going to be good and there will be long-term financial ramifications.

As all 30 clubs are now extending into their third month of lost revenue, it’s pretty clear budgets will be tighter in 2021 and there will be less money to go around in free agency this winter.

There are many fair questions to ask.

Will owners be more hesitant to give out deals with excessive 10-year terms now that they’ve seen how their carefully managed future books can be blown up by something unforeseen?

Will players look for short-term deals in hopes of things returning to normal in 2021?

Do more players suddenly become open to deferring money in new contracts?

It’s almost impossible to predict what free agency will look like after the global economy emerges from this pandemic gut punch, and it’s just as tough to predict how owners will adjust.

Another wrinkle to consider is the fact the current CBA expires at the end of the 2021 season, creating even more uncertainty on the horizon.
 

When will free agency start?

This is a trick question because players always become free agents one day after the World Series ends, thus kick-starting the five-day quiet period and the free agency process.

While that might not change in this unique situation, many of the scenarios that have been thrown around include the World Series finishing at the end of November, which could significantly alter the structure of the off-season and when players actually get around to signing new contracts.

At this point, the annual winter meetings are still scheduled for Dec. 6-10 at the Omni Dallas Hotel and Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center deep in the heart of Texas, but you can probably expect the meat of the off-season — and most of the big signings — to be pushed well into January if the season extends to the end of November.

Either way, it’s an interesting time for these 25 players to be hitting free agency.

Scott Mitchell will have an in-depth look at the free agent class by position over the next two weeks:

Tue May 5 – Top 10 outfielders

Thu May 7 – Top 10 Starters

Tue May 12 – Top 10 Relievers

Thu May 14 – Top 10 Infielders

TOP 25 FREE AGENTS (AGE FOR 2021 SEASON)

1. OF Mookie Betts (28)

There’s no argument here. Betts is hands down the top player available, one who may have commanded in the range of $400 million in a market similar to last year’s. Now? Who knows where the ultimate price tag will settle? Despite the uncertainty surrounding the eventual term and dollars, there’s no debating what Betts brings. He’s an in-his-prime five-tool player capable of multiple elite level seasons over the course of even a 10-year contract, which is why he’s in a tier all by himself.

2. C J.T. Realmuto (30)

The second player with a tier all to himself, Realmuto is do-everything catcher who’s been as consistent as it gets over the past three seasons, accumulating a total of 15.0 fWAR. Similar to Betts, hitting in a very good Phillies lineup this season is sure to produce an eye-popping line.

3. SP Trevor Bauer (30)

4. SP James Paxton (32)

Just ahead of a pair of really good position players and the next tier of starting pitchers land Bauer and Paxton, two arms who have flashed ace-like ability over the past couple of years and are set up for success (now that Paxton’s back is healing) in a truncated 2020 season. There’s no Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg on the market this year, so it could be a case of pick your poison with the top eight starters.

5. OF George Springer (31)

6. SS Marcus Semien (30)

Springer is OF2 in a market with Betts, but his ability to play both centre and right, as well as 30-homer power and plus on-base ability, are sure to land him nine-figure offers. Semien has less of a track record, but if he can post anything close to his 7.6 fWAR breakout of 2019 he’ll stay ahead of Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorius in a deep shortstop market.

7. SP Robbie Ray (29)

8. SP Marcus Stroman (30)

9. SP Mike Minor (33)

10. SP Jose Quintana (32)

11. SP Masahiro Tanaka (32)

12. SP Jake Odorizzi (31)

They all have contrasting styles, but these six names have one major thing in common: They’ve all been able to get results. Ray strikes out the most hitters in this group by far and likely has the most upside, but they’re all really good No. 3 starters on a contender.

13. SS Andrelton Simmons (31)

14. SS Didi Gregorius (31)

15. 2B DJ LeMahieu (32)

16. OF Marcell Ozuna (30)

17. OF Joc Pederson (29)

If Simmons rebounds with the bat to the 2017-18 levels that helped him to consecutive seasons of 5.0-plus fWAR, he’ll land a couple tiers above alongside Springer and Semien. Gregorius will be trying to rebuild his value on a one-year deal in Philly, while LeMahieu is not only the best option at second base in this class but also one of the top options at the hot corner, as well. Ozuna and Pederson can solidify their standing with good seasons in 2020, but they offer productive solutions from the right and left sides of the plate, respectively.

18. RP Ken Giles (30)

19. RP Kirby Yates (34)

20. RP Liam Hendriks (32)

21. RP Brandon Workman (32)

A tier of the top relievers available, all four right-handers had fantastic years in 2019 and if they can do it again, they’ll all find lucrative multi-year deals waiting for them this winter. The next tier of relievers includes Sean Doolittle, Keone Kela, Blake Treinen and likely Dellin Betances, who has a player option.

22. OF Michael Brantley (34)

23. 3B Justin Turner (36)

24. 1B Carlos Santana (35)

25. 1B Yuli Gurriel (37)

We end the list with four veteran bats who are all still producing in their mid-30s. Brantley rounds out a group of five outfielders on this list, while Turner is the best third base option available in a shallow market at that position. Santana and Gurriel are both coming off career years, but they’ll sit at the top of the first base market even with some regression.

 

POTENTIAL LATE ADDITIONS

Here are 13 notable names that could be added to the market late via contract options and opt-outs.

Many of the club options will be quickly picked up with good results if there’s a season, but it’s impossible to predict how the expected financial uncertainty and tighter budgets in 2021 will impact how teams go about their business and adjust on the fly.

One thing here is certain: Giancarlo Stanton will not be opting out of the final seven years and $218 million left on his deal, while the fact Nick Castellanos has another opt out written in after the 2021 season means the new Chicago Cubs outfielder has some options.

 

OPTIONS

SP Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs: $25M team option, $10M buyout

SP Corey Kluber, Texas Rangers: $17.5M club option, $1M buyout

SP JA Happ, New York Yankees: $17M vesting option, 165 IP or 27 starts in 2020

1B Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs: $16.5M club option, $2M buyout

2B/OF Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners: $14M club option, $1M buyout

OF Starling Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks: $12.5M club option, $1M buyout

2B Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals: $12.5M club option, $1M buyout

DH Edwin Encarnacion, Chicago White Sox: $12M club option, no buyout

SP Chris Archer, Pittsburgh Pirates: $11M club option, $250K buyout

OF Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals: $10.5M club option, $1.5M buyout

RP Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians: $10M club option, $1M buyout

 

OPT OUTS

OF Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees: Can opt out of final seven years, $218M

OF Nick Castellanos, Chicago Cubs: Can opt out of final three years, $48M