Jul 12, 2021
Breaking down a loaded MLB Home Run Derby
Shohei Ohtani headlines a stacked field at one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly ballparks. Here’s a look at all eight of the hitters in Monday’s Home Run Derby.
There is no park more synonymous with the home run than Coors Field.
While the outfield dimensions are the largest in Major League Baseball, the Colorado Rockies’ home in Denver sits more than 5,000 feet above sea level. During the season, Coors Field uses a humidor to store baseballs in and more accurately simulate conditions found in the other 29 ballparks.
But MLB announced they are turning off the humidor Monday night. That means dry baseballs, thin air and probably a boatload of home runs.
Could there be a better spot for the 2021 Home Run Derby?
The Rules
Consisting of eight hitters seeded based on their home run totals, participants will square off against one another in a single-elimination bracket with the highest seeds taking on the lowest.
Hitters will have three minutes in the first two rounds and two for the finals, with one 45-second timeout available in each round. The clock starts once the pitcher – selected by each individual hitter – releases their first pitch. The batter is allowed to count a homer hit past the allotted time as long the pitcher released the ball prior to the three-minute mark. If the second hitter’s total eclipses the first, the round will end.
Thirty seconds of bonus time will be awarded to each hitter at the conclusion of each round. A hitter can add another 30 seconds of bonus time by hitting a home run 475 feet or longer as measured by in-stadium Statcast technology. Timeouts cannot be used during bonus time and only one 475-foot bonus window is available to each hitter. If two hitters are tied at the end of a round, they will enter a 60-second swing-off.
The Participants
(1) Ohtani vs. (8) Soto
Ohtani vs. Soto
| Player | 2021 HR | Career High | Career Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | 33 | 33 | 80 |
| Juan Soto (WSH) | 11 | 34 | 80 |
Shohei Ohtani
The most exciting story from the first half of the season takes centre stage at baseball’s most exciting competition. The two-way sensation leads all of MLB in home runs (33) while almost single-handedly keeping a Mike Trout-less Los Angeles Angels team in the playoff hunt.
It’s almost impossible for Ohtani’s star to shine brighter than it already does, but then again what’s possible and what isn’t has never mattered much to him.
Ohtani’s Statcast rankings are out of this world. He ranks in the 97th percentile or better in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage and barrel percentage according to Baseball Savant. Translation? He hits the ball harder than pretty much anybody and further than pretty much anybody – an ideal combination for a home run derby.
Oh, and don’t forget, he’s got a 3.49 ERA in 13 starts.
Juan Soto
Soto’s 11 homers don’t exactly jump off the page and make him a derby favourite but make no mistake – he can flat out hit.
Still just 22 years old, Soto his 34 longballs in 2019 and had 13 in 47 games last season; 45 when projected out over a 162-game schedule. According to MLB.com, Soto is the 18th player in history to hit 80 or more homers by the end of his age-22 season. He also led the National League in slugging percentage (.695) and OPS (1.185).
Going up against Ohtani isn’t going to be an easy task, but he won’t be under the same kind of pressure the American League MVP front-runner is. If he gets in a groove, who knows?
(2) Gallo vs. (7) Story
Gallo vs. Story
| Player | 2021 HR | Career High | Career Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo (TEX) | 24 | 41 | 144 |
| Trevor Story (COL) | 11 | 37 | 145 |
Joey Gallo
They say everything is bigger in Texas and Joey Gallo would tend to agree.
In addition to being the only hitter in the field with two 40-plus home run seasons, Gallo is known for towering drives that could border on absurd in the Denver air. Gallo owns two home runs of 490 feet or more in his career, including a 495-foot game-tying ninth-inning blast three Julys ago.
Gallo has never participated in the MLB Home Run Derby, but he has taken a shot at the prize – literally. While taking batting practice as a minor leaguer before the MLB Futures Game in 2014, Gallo launched a home run that broke the windshield of a pickup truck parked well beyond the outfield wall at Target Field in Minneapolis. The truck was intended to be the prize for the winner of the MLB Derby the following day.
Trevor Story
Like Soto, Story’s home run total of 11 isn’t going to garner too much attention. But the Rockies’ shortstop is much more than just a hometown representative. Story averaged 31 home runs over his first four big league seasons and is the only player in MLB history to hit at least one home run in each of his first four games.
Only three Derby participants have won in front of their home fans but two of those have come within the last few years. Todd Frazier did it in 2015 with the Cincinnati Reds and Bryce Harper took home a memorable 2018 Derby in his final season with the Washington Nationals. Story will have his hands full with Gallo and might need the extra push his home fans are sure to give him.
(3) Olson vs. (6) Mancini
Olson vs. Mancini
| Player | 2021 HR | Career High | Career Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (OAK) | 21 | 36 | 124 |
| Trey Mancini (BAL) | 16 | 35 | 102 |
Matt Olson
He might not be a household name, but Matt Olson has quietly established himself as one of baseball’s better first basemen. The A’s product is averaging 39.5 longballs adjusted for 162 games over the past two seasons and already has 21 this year playing in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum.
Olson’s uppercut swing could be well tailored to getting baseballs in the air to right field with all but five of his home runs this year going to the pull side. Per Statcast, Olson ranks in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity, 95th in max exit velocity and 85th in hard hit percentage.
Oakland last had a Derby winner in 2014 when Yoenis Cespedes put his power on display in Minnesota.
Trey Mancini
The best story in this year’s Home Run Derby belongs to Orioles’ slugger Trey Mancini.
In March of last year, a lot more than his baseball career was in question. Mancini was diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer and had surgery to remove a tumour, causing him to miss all of 2020. Fast forward a little over a year later and Mancini isn’t just back, he’s thriving.
Mancini is tied for top spot on the Orioles in home runs (16) and leads his team in RBI (55). He also sits in the 92nd percentile in max exit velocity.
Mancini will also be auctioning off a Derby-themed NFT (non-fungible token) with the proceeds going to the Trey Mancini Foundation, a charity supporting those battling colon cancer.
“This drop is extremely important to me,” he said in a statement. “Not only is it my first experience with NFTs, but the cause is near and dear to my heart.”
(4) Perez vs. (5) Alonso
Perez vs. Alonso
| Player | 2021 HR | Career High | Career Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KCR) | 21 | 27 | 173 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 17 | 53 | 86 |
Salvador Perez
History isn’t really on Salvador Perez’s side here. No catcher has ever won the Home Run Derby and no Royal has, either. Perez has never hit 30 home runs in his 10 MLB seasons, averaging an even 20 in the first seven full years of his career before missing all of 2019.
But Perez has found his home run stroke the last two years, with 11 in just 37 games in 2020 and 21 this season, well on pace to eclipse his career-high of 27. They’re going to all fields, too, with six hit out to right, six to centre and nine to the pull side.
According to MLB.com, Perez joined Gary Sanchez in 2019 and Javy Lopez in 2003 as the only catchers in the past 20 years with 20 or more homers at the All-Star break.
Perez also ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity and 98th in hard hit percentage.
Pete Alonso
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may have stolen the spotlight at the 2019 Home Run Derby in Cleveland with records in total homers (91) and most in a single round (29) but don’t forget it was Pete Alonso who took home the title.
It’s a bit hard to believe Alonso is only a five-seed considering how high his 53-homer rookie season set the bar. The 26-year-old slugger enters the break with 17, anchoring the offence of the first-place New York Mets. He also ranks in the 99th percentile in max exit velocity and has hit all but two of his homers this season to the pull side.
Only Ken Griffey Jr. (three times), Prince Fielder (2009, 2012) and Yoenis Cespedes (2013, 2014) have won the Derby more than once and Alonso is looking to become just the third repeat winner.