2022 AL East Preview: Blue Jays' division to lose?

At this time just over a month ago, it didn’t look like we were going to make it to an early April start to the season. Fresh off the latest round of failed collective bargaining agreement negotiations, commissioner Rob Manfred announced MLB was cancelling the first two series of the season and pushing back Opening Day a week.

The more days that went by without the league and MLB Players Association reaching a deal, the more games that would be cancelled. Over the course of a few long days, it looked like no longer like a question of when we would get baseball in 2022, but if.

Then, somehow, someway, on the 99th day of the lockout, they figured things out. The season – all 162 games no less – was saved. And we couldn’t be happier.

With Opening Day just two days away, here is a team-by-team look at the American League East division, where the Toronto Blue Jays look like they're finally ready to take the next step.

Baltimore Orioles

2021 Record: 52-110

Key Additions: C Robinson Chirinos, 2B Rougned Odor, OF Shed Long Jr., P Jordan Lyles

Key Losses: C Pedro Severino, P Matt Harvey, P Fernando Abad

It’s well documented how bad the Orioles have been for the last several years. But has there been any improvement? Baltimore went a laughable 47-115 in 2018 and bumped that up to 54-108 a season after. In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season they held their own, sort of, managing a 25-35 record.

But they didn’t build on whatever upward momentum they’d attained last season, going 52-110 and dropping their winning percentage nearly 100 points from .417 in 2020 to .321. According to the Baseball Almanac, the Orioles have lost more games than any franchise in baseball history since their inception in 1901. That isn’t likely to start changing any time soon.

The case for: Looking at the Orioles’ roster for 2022 and it’s at least starting to resemble a big-league lineup. Cedric Mullins (30) and Ryan Mountcastle (33) each reached the 30-homer plateau and Baltimore actually finished 17th in the majors in longballs last season, far better than their ranking in most other categories.

The case against: Pull up a chair. Sure, they can hit the ball out of the ballpark a bit, but they still scored the second-fewest runs in the American League and the fifth-fewest in baseball. They gave up the most – by far – ending 2021 with a 5.85 team ERA, more than half a run higher than the Arizona Diamondbacks in second-worst at 5.15. So the O’s can’t really score and they especially can’t stop anyone from scoring. That’s not going to win you many games.

Boston Red Sox

2021 Record: 92-70

Key Additions: SS Trevor Story, OF Jackie Bradley Jr., P Michael Wacha, P Rich Hill, P James Paxton, P Matt Strahm, P Jake Diekman

Key Losses: OF Kyle Schwarber, OF Hunter Renfroe, P Garrett Richards, P Martin Perez, P Eduardo Rodriguez, P Adam Ottavino

Not normally one to shy away from an off-season spending spree, the Red Sox were quieter than usual as Spring Training opened in mid-March, electing to bring in a few veteran pitchers on short-term deals and not much else. But leopards tend to keep their spots and Boston eventually got in on the free agent fun with a six-year, $140 million deal to Trevor Story.

Xander Bogaerts has a firm hold on shortstop for presumably as long as he wants it, so Story will shift over and play second base. This gives the BoSox an infield of Rafael Devers, Bogaerts, Story and Bobby Dalbec, who hit 25 home runs and drove in 78 in his first big league season. He’ll have to up his on-base percentage (.298) but he has plenty of time to learn how to become more selective at the plate. The Red Sox aren’t just set up on the infield, they’re stacked.

The case for: Boston ranked third in the AL in both runs scored and OPS last season. And that was with Christian Arroyo starting the most games on the team at second base, where Story presents a huge upgrade. The only other lineup swap for 2022 is old friend Jackie Bradley Jr. re-joining the team in a deal that saw Hunter Renfroe and his 31 homers go the other way to the Milwaukee Brewers. Bradley’s offensive numbers were dismal last season but he has put up good years at the plate for Boston in the past. We know how strong his outfield defence is, so there’s a chance this trade works out well for both teams.

The case against: Every star that leaves Colorado has to deal with this storyline. And in many cases it turns out to be much ado about nothing. But Story’s career OPS at Coors field is .972 compared to .752 on the road. That’s not insignificant and comes from a 745-game sample spread out over six seasons. Story will certainly be an upgrade over what they had. But will he be an upgrade worth $140 million?

New York Yankees

2021 Record: 92-70

Key Additions: C Ben Rortvedt, SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B Josh Donaldson, INF/OF Marwin Gonzalez, OF Tim Locastro, OF Ender Inciarte, P Shelby Miller

Key Losses: C Gary Sanchez, 1B Luke Voit, 2B Rougned Odor, 3B Gio Urshela, OF Clint Frazier, OF Brett Gardner, P Corey Kluber, P Andrew Heaney

The Yankees have reached the playoffs in five straight years, winning 90 or more games in each full season. They haven’t had a losing campaign since 1992 and have been back to the postseason in nine of 12 seasons since winning the World Series in 2009. So why does it feel like the Yankees haven’t been the Yankees for quite some time?

It could be expectations that come with playing in New York that are nearly impossible to live up to. Or it could be the franchise’s dominant history of titles, which also contribute to those lofty expectations. Or it could be because there seems to be a difference in how the team is choosing to approach things.

As The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler wrote after the Minnesota Twins’ signing of Carlos Correa – who New York was believed to be in on: “The Yankees are getting outspent and outmaneuvered.”

The Yankees spent the 19th most money in free agency this off-season and were outspent by the division-rival Toronto Blue Jays by more than four times and the Red Sox by nearly five. Spending money in free agency is far from the only way to improve. But that didn’t used to happen often with the Yankees.

The case for: The Yankees had plenty of swing-and-miss last season, striking out 24.5 per cent of the time for the sixth-worst total in MLB. They improved their bat-to-ball skills, re-signing Anthony Rizzo and trading for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who both strike out at rates way under the league average. Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo and Giancarlo Stanton will whiff lots, but they should also continue to put up their fair share of numbers.

The case against: Gerrit Cole is an ace’s ace who has been as durable as they come for the last five seasons. But the rest of the rotation are injury risks. Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino and Jameson Taillon have all had Tommy John surgery within the last three years. Taillon for the second time, while Severino has thrown a total of 18.0 big league innings since 2018. Meanwhile, in the bullpen, setup man Zack Britton is expected to miss the entire season with a torn UCL.

Tampa Bay Rays

2021 Record: 100-62

Key Additions: OF Kameron Misner, OF Harold Ramirez, P Corey Kluber, P Jason Adam

Key Losses: DH Nelson Cruz, INF Joey Wendle, INF/OF Mike Brosseau, OF Austin Meadows, P Michael Wacha, P Collin McHugh, P Brent Honeywell, P Chris Archer, P Chaz Roe

Good luck trying to figure out the Rays. After making the World Series in 2020, the team parted ways with Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Willy Adames (in-season) and Hunter Renfroe. Surely a bit of a step back was coming?

All they did was set the franchise record for victories in a season – in a division where three other teams won 90-plus games – and return to the playoffs for the third year in a row. While they weren’t able to advance as far, Tampa still Tampa’d their way to a heck of a season. They might not have had the same kind of exodus this winter, but there is still a lot more going out than coming in. Would it surprise anyone if the Rays found a way to do more with less again?

The case for: Being able to bring up the top prospect in baseball sure helps make up for off-season losses. Wander Franco only got better after his June call-up, increasing his OPS by no fewer than 57 points as each month passed and he became more comfortable with big league pitching. He only turned 21 last month and looks like the real deal and then some. Pitchers beware.

The case against: The Rays don’t have much in the starting rotation behind Shane McClanahan, but they’re also reinventing how starting pitchers are used. Ryan Yarbrough led the team in innings last season at 155.0 and Tampa had 15 different pitchers start at least one game. And it… worked? The Rays finished fourth in baseball in team ERA while throwing the third-fewest number of innings among starters. If this approach proves to be sustainable year-over-year, credit to them. But building a pitching staff on mostly smoke and mirrors over a 162-game season can’t be easy.

Toronto Blue Jays

2021 Record: 91-71

Key Additions: C Zack Collins, 3B Matt Chapman, OF Raimel Tapia, P Yimi Garcia, P Kevin Gausman, P Joe Biagini, P Yusei Kikuchi

Key Losses: C Reese McGure, 2B Marcus Semien, OF Randal Grichuk, OF Corey Dickerson, P Robbie Ray, P Joakim Soria, P Steve Matz

How many teams that win 91 games don’t make the playoffs under the current format? Not many. And how many teams that win 91 games finish second-last in their division? Even fewer.

While the Blue Jays had their sixth-best season ever in terms of regular season wins – and did it playing in three different home ballparks – they ultimately fell short of the postseason and were unable to retain MVP finalist Marcus Semien and Cy Young winner Robbie Ray in free agency. There was plenty to love about what the Jays did in 2021, but enough to be disappointed about, too.

An off-season retooling has Toronto primed to contend again in 2022 and with the team back in the city full-time for the first time in three years, expectations are as high as they’ve ever been for the franchise.

The case for: Ray, Semien and Steven Matz all had career-years in 2021 and losing them definitely hurts. But for argument’s sake, let’s say Matt Chapman, Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi are direct replacements. According to FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection – a forecaster that uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends – the cumulative fWAR projection for the Jays’ former trio is 10.5. The new guys? They’re at a total of 9.6. So, if you believe the math, replacing Ray, Semien and Matz with Chapman, Gausman and Kikuchi is only projected to be about a one-win decline over the course of a full season. And if the Jays improve in the other areas, there’s no reason they can’t be better than 91 wins in 2022.

The case against: The Jays would have likely reached the playoffs last season if not for their bullpen, which often failed to protect leads late in games. Their most notable addition in that area from over the winter, Yimi Garcia, struggled after being traded to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline, pitching to a 5.48 ERA in 23 games down the stretch. Closer Jordan Romano is also dealing with an ankle injury. The lineup should score plenty and the starting rotation will keep Toronto in games, but can the bullpen finish them?