A blueprint for the Blue Jays to get Guerrero deal done

It’s time to get down to business and sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I don’t mean this off-season. I mean this week or next week. It’s time. The Blue Jays need to move on additions to the roster in this hot stove season, but to do that properly they need certainty on their best player. 

The Jays had a plan last off-season, but the plan controlled them rather than the team controlling it themselves. They went after Plan A in Shohei Ohtani, and had to wait that out while other players came off the board. The Jays got caught chasing. After Plan A chose the Dodgers, the price tags for Plan B and C were more than the Jays wanted to pay, so they ended up settling for Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. They are not bad players, but they are not the impact players the Jays had set out to acquire. 

This is a huge off-season for Toronto. They can’t make that same mistake again. This is that moment in time where the organization is at the crossroads. If not now, then when?

The Jays need to pursue their superstar player. I understand why it has been difficult to this point to find the right starting place in negotiations. Guerrero has been great at times, but has also had mediocre stretches. It was hard to know who he was going to be as a player. But he showed in 2024 that he is a superstar offensive player. He’s not just good or great, he has the makings of a franchise player. It’s clear where the deal should go. Now, it is about execution.

Often when teams try to extend their own stars they make assumptions that the player knows how much they really want to sign him. Negotiations for your own players are often less passionate than courting a superstar from outside the organization. 

This can’t just be an exchange of numbers with his agent. I would go after Guerrero like he has been playing for someone else for the past five years. I would hop on the owner’s private jet with Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins and John Schneider and fly to the Dominican Republic to go to Guerrero’s house, bearing gifts for his family. I would go with the intention of letting him know how much he means to the franchise and how he is the linchpin of everything we’re trying to accomplish.

The idea of the trip would be to connect with him more deeply than ever before. Sell him on what his legacy can be. His father played for several teams. Vlad Jr. has a chance to be the rare player who plays his entire career for one franchise. Explain how he has the opportunity to be the Blue Jays’ career leader in every major offensive category. He can be the best player to ever wear the Jays uniform – forever revered, admired and adored. He will be an icon in Toronto and Canada. Make him understand you want to join forces with him.

I would bring a recruiting video with a message from as many people as possible who would move his mind and touch his heart. The message would be, “Please stay!  We want you!  We need you!” Record former Jays players, current Jays players, Raptors players, Leafs players, his favourite bartender, waiter, security guard, clubhouse workers, Larry Walker, Ferguson Jenkins, Joey Votto, Drake, or anyone else who can deliver the message.

I would wine and dine his family in the Dominican Republic. Let him bring friends who are most important to him. Once the party is over, tell him that you will make him the highest-paid Blue Jay ever. On the way back to the plane, call his agent and tell him the entire travelling party is flying directly to him next to make a deal and not leaving until it is done.

Once with the agent, come in hot. Don’t play negotiating games of lowballing and looking to go back and forth seven or eight times. Lead with the fact that you are making him the highest-paid Blue Jay and the highest-paid first baseman ever.

The comparable players and contracts that are relevant in this negotiation are:

- Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, who signed a six-year $162 million deal with the Dodgers in March of 2022. That is an annual average value of $27 million per year.

- Braves first baseman Matt Olson, who signed an eight-year deal for $168 million around the same time as Freeman. Olson’s AAV is $21 million per year but it included two arbitration years. Guerrero has one arbitration year remaining.

- Bryce Harper is now a first baseman, but was signed with the Philadelphia Phillies as an outfielder. At the age of 26 in 2019, Harper signed a 13-year deal for $330 million. His AAV is just over $25 million and is making $27.5 million this season.

I believe that Freeman and Harper are slightly better players than Guerrero, while he is better than Olson. But the fact that their contracts are a few years old needs to be acknowledged in any offer.

Guerrero is projected to make about $30 million in arbitration in 2025. In addition to the $30 million, I would offer another 11 years at $27 million (Freeman’s salary) per year for a total of $327 million. That’s more years than Freeman and a higher AAV ($27.25 million) than Harper and Freeman.

Sure, he is making more this year than the long-term AAV, but the length of the deal justifies the lower overall AAV. I would front-load the deal, paying him $30 million per year for the first six years of the deal and then have declining salaries thereafter.  This contract would keep the Jays and Guerrero together through his age-37 season. It is a very aggressive first offer that would make him the highest-paid Blue Jay and first baseman ever.

Of course, Guerrero’s camp will want to negotiate, and I left some wiggle room to do so. The Jays can easily justify bumping the AAV closer to $30 million per year for the free-agent years. They can even consider adding another year on the deal, making it a 13-year deal that includes 12 free-agent seasons.

These long-term deals can feel cumbersome over the final few years, but it’s the price of doing business. Clubs make decisions in the time and space in which they find themselves. In this moment, this is the deal the Jays need to make, and they need to make it now so they have cost certainty moving forward and so they can show other free agents a long-term commitment to winning.

Once deal is done and the press conference is scheduled, send the private jet for Vladdy and his family to fly to Toronto. Leak to the media when the jet is arriving and tell Jays fans to welcome their hero and celebrate the long-term commitment. Who needs Ohtani anyway?