Breaking down Ohtani’s most likely free agent destinations
Published
Shohei Ohtani was going to receive the largest contract in baseball history before he got hurt toward the end of the season.
He's so good that he might anyway.
Ohtani had Tommy John surgery last month that will keep him off the mound entirely in 2024. Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the renowned surgeon who performed the procedure, said Ohtani should be free of hitter restrictions for next season and will be back on the mound by 2025 if all goes well with his rehab.
This brings up a fascinating set of questions not only for Ohtani, but for teams interested in signing one of the most unique talents in baseball history. As the best player in the world at the peak of his prime, does he cash out in his desired destination? Does he opt for something shorter term and then really cash out once he’s fully healthy? Which teams can actually afford him, and more importantly, which teams are willing to write that big a cheque?
All that will reveal itself this winter. And it’s going to be fun to watch.
As we wait for the off-season’s biggest domino to fall, here is a look at some of Ohtani’s most likely destinations, with a case for and against each suitor.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds via FanDuel: +250
The case for: The Dodgers give Ohtani everything he wants: the track record of winning, an ensemble of talent to keep winning and deep enough pockets to go as high as anyone in the bidding. And, of course, Ohtani may not even have to move.
The Dodgers have nearly a dozen free agents coming off the books and held off doing anything big last winter, with the speculation being they wanted the decks clear for a certain someone this time around.
The case against: The only thing preventing the Dodgers from being the runaway favourite is the way their roster is constructed. The truth is, they don’t need Ohtani, at least not positionally. Dodger pitchers allowed more runs last season (699) than any year since 2007 and both Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias are among their pending free agents. Even if the Dodgers bring Kershaw back, he’ll be coming off surgery, and so will Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May when they return. We know Ohtani isn’t slated to pitch next season and adding him to a lineup that scored the second-most runs during the regular season will take a big chunk out of their free-agent budget.
San Francisco Giants
Odds via FanDuel: +500
The case for: San Francisco nearly landed the biggest prize last winter as multiple reports indicated Aaron Judge had it down to the Yankees and Giants, with him ultimately deciding to return to New York. And then the Giants almost had Carlos Correa signed before concerns popped up about his medical history and he ended up back with the Minnesota Twins. Both contracts would have been in the hundreds of millions, so Ohtani’s high price tag might not scare them off.
The case against: The Giants won 107 games in 2021 but have been mediocre since, finishing with 81 and 79 wins each of the past two years, respectively. Without much in the way of star talent on the roster, it could be hard to convince Ohtani the Giants are ready to make a World Series run.
Oracle Park isn’t very friendly to left-handed hitters, either. According to Statcast, Oracle ranks as the 24th hardest park for lefties to hit in overall and the 25th toughest in terms of home runs. Though it did work out fine for one left-handed hitter in particular.
New York Mets
Odds via FanDuel: +700
The case for: The New York Mets had the highest payroll in baseball history last season at $377 million and owner Steve Cohen – worth nearly $20 billion – is no stranger to winning the off-season. The Mets have been profoundly disappointing during Cohen’s tenure and face sky-high expectations to turn things around.
They cleared out money by trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander this summer and according to Forbes, Cohen’s refinancing of debt from Citi Field’s construction will lead to lower payments and will save the Mets money in the long term. Does Cohen take some of that money and invest it in a certain free agent? Or does that go into the $8 billion investment plan for the area surrounding Citi Field announced this week?
The case against: As much as the Mets’ willingness to spend helps them in pursuit of big-name free agents, it hurts them in the luxury tax. The more they spend, the more they have to pay on top of it. Cohen said prior to last season he eventually wants to get payroll down to “something more reasonable” and adding Ohtani would do the exact opposite of that.
Seattle Mariners
Odds via FanDuel: +750
The case for: The Mariners were one of the finalists for Ohtani when he was first choosing among MLB teams six winters ago and there’s the obvious connection with Ichiro, whom Ohtani has always made a point to show his appreciation for. Given how Ohtani has always seemed to thrive in the spotlight, following in Ichiro’s footsteps doesn’t seem like it would scare him away.
The case against: Owner John Stanton said over the summer that Seattle would look at adding Ohtani, but reiterated he believed the key to sustained success was player development. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said last month (before walking it back) the team’s goal on a year-to-year basis was to win 54 per cent of their games. Last year, they won exactly that and missed the playoffs, which indicates a belief that major changes may not be necessary.
New York Yankees
Odds via FanDuel: +850
The case for: The Yankees are coming off their first missed postseason since 2016 and face all kinds of pressure to turn things around. Pairing Ohtani with Judge would give the Bronx Bombers the best offensive 1-2 punch in baseball and that short right field porch in Yankee Stadium could be appealing to Ohtani’s lefty power bat.
The case against: According to Fangraphs, the Yankees’ 2024 payroll is already likely to come in over the luxury tax number of $237 million. That would be their third straight year over the CBT threshold, which becomes more and more expensive with every dollar they spend. And that’s before adding Ohtani.
The Yankees have an aging roster with both Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu under contract for several more years. Tying up the designated hitter spot might and forcing those two to play the field every day might not be what manager Aaron Boone is looking for.
Rumours have also circulated Ohtani doesn’t like pitching at Yankee Stadium and the numbers from his two career starts there aren’t pretty. He’s allowed a total of 11 runs, three home runs and has an opponent’s batting average of .500 in the Bronx.
San Diego Padres
Odds via FanDuel: +1500
The case for: In recent years, the Padres have signed or traded for the following star players: Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Josh Hader and Joe Musgrove. They haven’t been afraid to take a run at the biggest names and are coming off a disappointing season where major improvement will be expected.
The case against: The Padres are going to have a void to fill on the mound with Snell and Hader set for free agency. And it’s possible San Diego’s big spending is starting to catch up with them. Per The Athletic, the Padres took out a loan of about $50 million to help solve cash flow issues and meet obligations that include player payroll. If money is tight, is adding a few hundred million to the balance sheet really the best idea?
Los Angeles Angels
Odds via FanDuel: +1500
The case for: Ohtani has had incredible success as an Angel, winning (as of next week) two MVPs, Rookie of the Year, making three All-Star teams and finishing as high as fourth in Cy Young voting. Fellow superstar Mike Trout is signed long-term and according to the New York Post's Jon Heyman shows “no indication” he’s looking for a change of scenery.
The Angels had the chance to trade Ohtani for the moon and the stars at the deadline and not only chose to hold onto him but add pieces for a playoff run. That failed spectacularly as L.A. went on to lose seven straight games following Aug. 1, but at least they… tried? Trading Ohtani would have all but ended any chance they had at signing him this winter.
The case against: As great as Ohtani has been individually, the Angels have been the opposite as a team. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, haven’t won a playoff game since 2009 and haven’t finished above .500 since 2015. They followed up a disappointing 73-win season in 2022 with exactly 73 wins again in 2023. MLB Pipeline also ranked them as the third-worst farm system in baseball earlier this year, so developing into winners any time soon might be a tall order.
It’s hard to imagine the Angels being able to offer Ohtani anything other teams can’t, outside of familiarity.
Boston Red Sox
Odds via FanDuel: +1600
The case for: Back-to-back 78-win seasons have the Red Sox teetering on the edge of irrelevancy. What better way than to turn around a team that’s missed the playoffs in four of the last five seasons than with Ohtani?
According to Heyman, the Red Sox are a “real threat” to sign the two-way star, and some have linked Ohtani’s association with Boston-based company New Balance as a potential sweetener to joining the BoSox.
The case against: Even if Ohtani does have interest in the Red Sox, long-time baseball writer Peter Gammons tweeted in September he sees Boston investing more on the mound this winter after finishing in the bottom third in most pitching categories. The Red Sox have trimmed payroll in recent years, and it might be a bit early in his tenure for new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to ask owner John Henry to shell out several hundred million after just a couple weeks on the job.
Toronto Blue Jays
Odds via FanDuel: +2000
The case for: In dire need of some thump in their lineup, Ohtani makes as much sense baseball-wise as anyone for the Blue Jays. And Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports the Blue Jays are among the teams that will make a push for the two-way star. But…
The case against: The reality is Toronto hasn’t landed these kinds of free agents in a long, long time. The biggest free-agent contract in club history remains George Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal from three winters ago. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette each without long-term deals and the claim from general manager Ross Atkins that he expects payroll in 2024 to be about the same, there probably won’t be room in the budget for Ohtani north of the border.
Texas Rangers
Odds via FanDuel: +2500
The case for: Reports indicate Ohtani wants to win more than anything. And what better team to convince him of their ability to do that than the defending World Series champions? Spending big has worked out for Texas, as both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien played integral parts during their championship run.
The Rangers were in on Ohtani in 2017 and reportedly were willing to make an offer had he hit the trade market this summer.
The case against: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Seager and Semien are due a combined $123.5 million next season, so the possibility of adding Ohtani and tying nearly $200 million up in five players for 2024 seems far-fetched. The World Series parade rolling through town last week also alleviates a lot of pressure and expectations from the fan base for the team to make a big splash in free agency.