By The Numbers: Blue Jays dwindling playoff odds
Published
At the mid-way point of the Major League Baseball season, the Toronto Blue Jays have a long way to go if they want to make the playoffs for the third consecutive season.
The Jays sit last in the American League East with a 44-52 record, 14 games behind the division-leading Baltimore Orioles. Earning a wild card spot will also be difficult, as Toronto sits 9.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the final playoff spot and will need to leap five teams (Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers) to earn a postseason berth.
Through 96 games last season, the Jays were in a much better position, sitting in a playoff spot at 53-43 on July 19, 2023.
FanGraphs gives the Blue Jays a 1.9 per cent chance to make the playoffs, projecting the club to finish with a 77-85 record at the end of the season.
TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips appeared on TSN’s First Up on Monday to grade the Jays season at the halfway point.
“I would give the players a D+ to this point. I think it’s below average. I think the players probably feel horrible about this season,” said Phillips.
Missed Opportunities
Following last season’s playoff sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, Blue Jays management felt the best course of action was to count on internal roster improvements and slight roster tweaks to get over the hump and win a playoff series for the first time since 2016.
“I think it’s the same grade for the management as well. I think they’ll acknowledge that the idea of the ‘internal improvements’ was a flawed plan. The idea of expecting everyone who was great to be great, and everyone who wasn’t, to improve, just wasn’t an appropriate read for the 2024 season.”
That plan has not come to fruition as the team’s biggest weakness in 2023, offence, is still the biggest Achilles heel of the club this season. Team OPS has dropped every year since leading the league (.797) in 2021 and now sits 21st at .688.
When the players on the existing roster have not performed to expectations, Phillips believes Jays management once again missed the boat by not making a mid-season change to try and salvage the season.
“You can’t punt the season and keep waiting for internal improvement. If you’re not getting it, you’ve got to do something to disrupt the energy,” said Phillips.
“I said back in May that I would’ve made a managerial change because I wouldn't want to lose this season. I don't want to punt it. I thought if you made a move back then, you might spark some performance in some players because they were being held accountable.”
Phillips reports that the Blue Jays plan to retool and compete next season, indicating they will not undergo a full rebuild ahead of the July 30 trade deadline, focusing on trades for pending free agents such as Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Kevin Kiermaier, Justin Turner, Yimi Garcia, and Trevor Richards.
In order to get back on track, the Jays would need to turn around a bottom-10 offence, a middling rotation ranked 15th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA, and the league’s worst bullpen by WAR (-1.7).
Toronto claimed the third wild card spot in the 2023 playoffs with an 89-73 record and would need to go 45-21 in the second half of this season to match that record and have a chance at the postseason.