By the numbers: Jays’ offence at centre of recent struggles
Published
Everything was fine less than a week ago.
The Toronto Blue Jays moved to 12-8 last Friday night, having just picked up a win over stingy right-hander Bryan Woo and the Seattle Mariners to kick off a three-game series. The Jays were four games over .500 and had not only weathered a pretty tough schedule to start the season, but they’d done it without much power production from Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Anthony Santander. Once their big bats started doing more damage, presumably things would only get better, right?
Fast forward a few days and things feel totally different.
An extra-innings defeat Saturday where Toronto left 14 runners on base and went just 3-for-19 with runners in scoring position gave way to another loss Sunday in the series-finale. Then the Jays went to Houston and were outscored 15-2 by the Astros in a dominant series sweep. Suddenly, the 12-8 Jays that had opened some eyeballs to start the season are now 12-13 heading into a weekend series at Yankee Stadium.
In a vacuum, starting 12-13 with 137 games still to go isn’t any reason to panic. After all, the Jays did take care of the Guerrero extension, which felt like a far bigger storyline coming into the season than how the team got out of the gate. But offence held the Jays back last season, and the bats have remained a big problem so far in 2025.
The Jays scored the eighth-fewest runs and hit the fifth-fewest home runs in 2024 en route to a 74-88 finish. Nearly a month into this year, Toronto’s 88 runs rank sixth-last across the majors. It’s even worse when it comes to power as the Jays have hit just 13 home runs on the season, one ahead of the last-place Kansas City Royals in that department.
Toronto also ranks well below league average in most offensive categories, including seventh from the bottom in OPS (.659), 24th in OPS+ (92), fifth-last in slugging percentage (.345) and 23rd in total bases.
Blue Jays' offence vs. rest of league
| Offensive stat | Value | Blue Jays team rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs scored | 88 | 25 |
| Home runs | 13 | 29 |
| Batting average | .242 | 14 |
| OBP | .314 | 14 |
| Slugging | .345 | 26 |
| OPS | .659 | 23 |
One area the Jays have been fine at is getting on base. They’re right at league average in on-base percentage (.314) and slightly above in batting average (.242), indicating that reaching base has been less of a problem than actually coming around to score. The team’s 187 runners left on base – the sixth most across MLB – back that up.
What’s going on with the Jays’ offence can be showcased primarily through Guerrero and Bichette.
After signing his $500 million extension, Guerrero is hitting a respectable .277 with a .373 OBP. That’s more or less in line with his career averages in both categories. Same with Bichette, who is hitting .296 and reaching base at a .336 clip.
It’s the power that has been severely lacking. Guerrero has only the one home run, coming last week off Spencer Strider of all pitchers, while Bichette is still looking for his first longball since last May. Guerrero’s .372 slugging percentage is actually below MLB average (.388) and Bichette’s .370 is nearly 100 points lower than his career benchmark.
It’s not just Toronto’s star duo in search of more power.
Only nine Blue Jays have hit home runs this season and they've hit just one as a group in the last week. Andres Gimenez leads the team with three, and he hasn’t left the yard since March 31. Santander, the team’s biggest off-season addition, has only two, and his slash line of .189/.264/.295 shows he’s struggled as much as any Jay at the plate.
Blue Jays hitters this season
| Player | Pos | Games Played | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 19 | .211 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .532 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 25 | .277 | 1 | 10 | .373 | .745 |
| Andres Gimenez | 2B | 25 | .194 | 3 | 8 | .276 | .610 |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 25 | .296 | 0 | 13 | .336 | .707 |
| Ernie Clement | 3B | 24 | .232 | 0 | 5 | .279 | .286 |
| Anthony Santander | OF | 24 | .189 | 2 | 8 | .264 | .559 |
| George Springer | OF | 23 | .333 | 2 | 12 | .420 | .956 |
| Alan Roden | OF | 23 | .203 | 1 | 5 | .284 | .581 |
| Myles Straw | OF | 19 | .282 | 1 | 3 | .333 | .744 |
| Will Wagner | INF | 18 | .200 | 0 | 2 | .279 | .515 |
| Nathan Lukes | OF | 15 | .200 | 1 | 5 | .306 | .639 |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 8 | .500 | 1 | 5 | .519 | 1.249 |
| Addison Barger | OF | 7 | .059 | 0 | 0 | .111 | .229 |
One bright spot for Toronto at the dish has been the resurgence of George Springer. The outfielder is off to a fast start in his age-35 season and leads the team among starters in batting average (.333) OPS (.956) and OPS+ (260). It’s been an encouraging rebound from a down season in 2024 and a dismal spring training that saw him hit just .108 in 37 at-bats.
There are other positives, too.
The Jays’ front-four in the starting rotation has pitched to a 3.41 ERA in their first 20 starts. The bullpen has been just as good with their 3.54 ERA sitting 11th across the majors. New closer Jeff Hoffman has been incredible with a league-leading 10 games finished this season and 18 strikeouts in 12.1 innings pitched. Yimi Garcia, Chad Green, Brendon Little and Nick Sandlin have also been impressive, all with ERAs at 2.53 or lower.
Another thing the team can look forward to is the return of Gold Glove outfielder Daulton Varsho, who began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Buffalo earlier this week and appears close to making his season debut after rotator cuff surgery last fall. Varsho’s 65 home runs combined from the past three seasons could help infuse a little power into a Jays lineup in desperate need of some thump.
And finally, it might not mean much in April, but despite all the offensive struggles, the Jays remain only three games back of the lead in the American League East. The schedule will get lighter and the offence should improve – it’s just a question of how much, and whether it will be enough get them where they want to go.