By the numbers: Guerrero back among MLB’s elite

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was doing okay through the first 50 games of 2024, but only just okay.

From March 28 to May 24, Guerrero slashed .288/.382/.414 with five home runs and 24 RBI. He was hitting for average and getting on base, but wasn’t showing quite the level of power the Blue Jays were hoping for going into the season. For a team whose plans relied heavily on internal improvement from their star players, Guerrero’s numbers left a bit to be desired.

But they weren’t necessarily unexpected. Guerrero’s OPS of .795 through his first 50 games this season almost mirrored his .788 OPS from 2023 and was a touch below his .818 mark from 2022.

The MVP-calibre Vladdy of 2021 who hit 48 home runs and finished with a league-best 1.002 OPS and 167 OPS+ looked more and more like an outlier, not the Guerrero who had put up solid, but not franchise-cornerstone numbers in the seasons since.

But over the past few weeks, Guerrero has returned to that aircraft-carrier level. So much so that his numbers are back in elite territory, with teammates and fans alike marvelling about what he can do in the batter’s box.

Since June 1, Guerrero is batting .338 and slugging .657 with 16 home runs and 44 RBI. That equals out to 51 homers and 140 RBI over a 162-game pace, numbers that even outweigh his 2021 campaign. He’s been even better during his 13-game hit streak, batting .521 with eight home runs, 15 RBI and 17 runs scored over that span.

Guerrero’s hot streak was on full display Monday in Baltimore as he picked up a combined seven hits and left the yard in each game of the doubleheader. The first came off lefty Keegan Aiken, when Guerrero took a pitch out of the strike zone up and away and easily cleared the right field wall at Camden Yards. According to MLB stats guru Sarah Langs, the pitch was the highest Vladdy has ever homered on at 3.83 feet off the ground.

The second homer in the nightcap was even more impressive. Facing lefty Cole Irvin in the eighth inning, Guerrero lined an absolute laser into the batter’s eye in centre. From the behind-the-mound camera angle on TV, it looked as if centre fielder Colton Cowser would have to come in on the ball given the trajectory. And it ended up on the other side of the wall.

Teammate George Springer, who has 255 career home runs of his own, had an expression of shock on his face that told the full story.

“Are you kidding me with this guy?... It’s only the first day and I’m already tired of looking at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.,” said the Orioles broadcast booth as he rounded the bases.

As good as Guerrero has been lately, it hasn’t translated to much from a team perspective. Toronto has gone 23-28 since Guerrero caught fire to open the month of June, and traded several veteran players on expiring contracts ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said the team was “not close” to entertaining offers for Guerrero or shortstop Bo Bichette, who each are scheduled to hit free agency after next season, signalling an intention to centre the team’s competitive hopes for 2025 back on their shoulders.

For the season, Guerrero heads into play Wednesday slashing .312/.383/.524 with 21 home runs and 69 RBI. If he’s able to replicate that next year, it could go a long way in helping the Jays retool.