Matheson says Guerrero Jr.'s contract with Jays is going to be a story all season
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With Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s self-imposed contract deadline now almost a month post due, negotiation numbers are starting to be leaked to the media from both sides.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on Tuesday that the star slugger was seeking $500 million in present day value for his next contract. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also reported the Jays offered Guerrero around $500 million ahead of his deadline, but the deal included significant deferrals which devalued its worth to somewhere between $400 million, and $450 million.
With Guerrero reportedly looking for a 14-year deal, the two sides appear to be approximately $50 million apart in their negotiation or $3.5 million per season.
Following the somewhat pointed comments from Guerrero and general manager Ross Atkins last month, the gap to get a deal done might be closer than some had previously thought. Is there a chance a deal could get done before Opening Day?
MLB.com Blue Jays reporter Keegan Matheson says he would "shocked" if that happens, adding the gap is likely wider given all the factors, including deferrals, as well as the Jays' history of drawing a hard line when it comes to a player's value.
"The Blue Jays have been a team that even though they've pushed a little beyond their comfort zone in this I believe, they've been a team that for years now wants to stick to what they believe what a value is and draw a hard line right there," Matheson said on Wednesday morning during an appearance on TSN 1050's First Up. "If you're the Blue Jays right now, you're hope for this may be waiting into next off-season and seeing what the market says for Vladdy. Hoping that price comes back toward you a little bit."
Guerrero, who was born in Montreal, has spent his entire six-year career with the Blue Jays, making four All-Stars teams and winning two Silver Slugger Awards.
The first baseman hit .323 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs over 159 games last season, also producing an .396 on-base percentage, a .940 OPS and 6.2 WAR.
Matheson says waiting until next year to get an extension done might be risky, but doesn't think Guerrero's dollar value is likely to increase throughout season.
"I don't think it's going to grow bigger next off-season. This year the Juan Soto deal went way beyond what I expected, but I think we've all recalibrated ourselves to the new reality of MLB contracts and where Vladdy is right now, for his value to grow, what he's got to do guys? My God, 75 home runs?" said Matheson. "The Blue Jays can look at this and say, ‘Hey, the more likely outcome was that this probably bounces back in our direction in free agency.’ Even though that's risky."
Earlier this off-season, the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to a record-breaking 15-year, $765 million non-deferred deal while two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani signed for $700 million over 10 years with the World Series-winning Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024, a deal featuring heavy deferrals which brings down the present day value to $460 million.
Giving Guerrero $450 to $500 million might be risky, but it's one that needs to be taken if you're going to lock up a a superstar in today's MLB, says Matheson.
"The word 'budget' doesn't mean much to me anymore. It really doesn't because if you can change it for a star player, budget has some quotation marks around it," he said "I don't think that should be a concern for them long-term. There is the superstar tax...if you want one of the very, very top guys, you're going to have to pay an incredible premium and you have to balance that out down the road by being a good front office that maybe develops good farm systems."
If the Jays are unable to get an extension finished, Matheson expects the story to loom over the franchise for the entire campaign, especially when the Jays travel to places like New York and Boston, potential destinations for Guerrero if he elects to sign elsewhere next winter.
"This is going to be a story all season. Forget the no distraction thing. This is going to be all over this season," said Matheson.
Toronto begins their season at home on March 27 against the Baltimore Orioles.