Free-agent pitching targets for the Blue Jays

TORONTO — All of the focus this winter is on the bats, and with good reason.

Without offensive improvements in 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays won’t have a chance.

But the old adage of never having enough pitching always rings true at some point during a long season, and it’s very clear that, as of today, GM Ross Atkins has a large number of holes to fill when it comes to the 13-man pitching staff.

Luckily, the bullpen overhaul is doable with a deep group of relievers available on the free-agent market. You just have to pick the right ones. Easier said than done.

There’s also a hole to fill in the rotation and that fix could take various forms, from nine figures to a depth add, depending on other dominos.

Before we get to the all-important hitter targets this week, here are my favourite pitcher targets for the Jays as free agency starts to kick into gear ahead of next week’s annual winter meetings in Dallas.

Some are exciting, some aren’t, but all of them can help.

Roki Sasaki, JPN, age-23

Roki Sasaki Japan

The focus right now is on Juan Soto, but what if this is actually the Jays’ top target this winter?

Sasaki is just about everything you want in a pitcher, including elite stuff, elite performance, youth, as well as the fact he’s pulling a Shohei Ohtani and coming to MLB before the age of 25, which will place him under international bonus pool restrictions in the 2025 IFA class beginning Jan. 15.

Money is not an issue in this chase, which levels the playing field a bit.

At this point, everyone assumes he’s going to be an L.A. Dodger, which is fair given the presence of countrymen Ohtani and Yoshi Yamamoto, but there’s enough behind-the-scenes evidence right now to suggest that Sasaki may not be locked in on one of the obvious markets.

The Sasaki buzz is muted for now, but as soon as Soto signs this is the guy the headlines will revolve around into mid-January.

The one red flag is the fact Sasaki’s velocity was down nearly two full ticks in 2024 compared to 2023, but even a catastrophic arm injury that forced him to miss a full year wouldn’t change the outlook teams have on this future ace.

SP Max Fried, ATL, age-31

The Jays have already been connected here and this one would be similar to the deal they signed Kevin Gausman to three years ago, a five-year, $110-million pact (plus inflation) that has worked out tremendously well so far.

With Fried, it feels like there’s a chance the best is yet to come as he enters his age-31 season, and the southpaw would give the Jays rotation a different look alongside four right-handers next year.

Every rotation in the AL East is going to be pretty good next season, but an addition like this could give the Jays, arguably, the best group of five, which is something in such a competitive division.

He would also help stagger future need, with Chris Bassitt signed for only one more season and Gausman two.

SP Shane Bieber, CLE, age-30

Ace upside at a discount? Yes, please. Sign me up.

There’s a lot of risk with Bieber coming off a lost season due to Tommy John surgery, but just before he got hurt the stuff had spiked and the 29-year-old was looking a lot like his former Cy Young self.

Bieber’s early surgery means he should be ready to go around the end of May, but a creative multi-year pact should be a priority for a team looking to land a potential ace for the second half of 2025 and then the full go in 2026.

Bieber is likely to want a deal with an opt-out next winter.

SP Walker Buehler, LAD, age-31

Walker Buehler Los Angeles Dodgers

Who knows what you’re going to get with Buehler at this point, but there’s no arguing the upside is still sky high the further removed he is from his 2022 Tommy John.

For most of the season, the right-hander’s stuff was very so-so, and he pitched to an ugly 5.38 ERA across his 16 starts.

But late in the postseason Buehler’s stuff started to spike a bit and he had his best outings on the World Series stage, perfect timing for a free-agent-to-be.

Those performances are going to attract a lot of curious teams this winter, even if nobody has any idea what to really expect next season.

SP Nick Pivetta, BOS, age-32

Another pitcher with top-of-the-rotation stuff and results that don’t match.

If you’ve followed the Victoria, B.C., native’s career at all, it’s been pretty amazing to watch and truly confusing at times.

There have been stretches where he’s looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball with gaudy strikeout rates and the capability to punch out double-digit hitters every fifth day, which are quickly followed by points where he’s been banished to the bullpen and fallen out of favour.

The Red Sox thought enough of his work in 2024 — a 4.14 ERA across 145.2 innings — to give him the $21.05-million qualifying offer, but Pivetta is going to no doubt going to have a handful of multi-year offers to sift through.

Pivetta could simply be what he’s been, or he could be so much more. There’s risk here for sure, especially with draft pick compensation attached.

SP Tomoyuki Sugano, JPN, age-35

The Jays were in on Sugano way back in the middle of the pandemic, when the right-handed hurler was considering moving to MLB in December 2020, but he elected to remain in Japan.

Four years later, Sugano is ready once again.

The 35-year-old is more of a crafty backend starter than any sort of ace, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in Japan for 12 years, so it’ll be interesting to see how his stuff translates.

The price and term will probably be very reasonable, which helps.

SP Spencer Turnbull, PHI, age-32

Philadelphia Phillies

One of my favourite sleeper arms on this market, Turnbull has sort of run into the Bowden Francis problem where the stuff isn’t huge, and no one really seems to fully believe in his potential as a starter.

But Francis finally got a chance and proved there might be something there, while Turnbull has done the same in spurts over his career.

Over the course of his career, the righty has a 4.28 ERA as a starter with a 21.9 per cent strikeout rate.

As a comparison, Frankie Montas, who signed with the New York Mets for two years and a total of $34 million this week, had a 4.84 ERA and a 22.6 per cent K rate last year.

At worst, you’ve got a decent swingman.

RP Jeff Hoffman, PHI, age-32

Hello, old friend, as we enter the group of relievers that I like.

A name familiar to Blue Jays diehards after being a failed first-round pick exactly 10 years ago, Hoffman has resurrected his career in the bullpen over the past two seasons.

So much so that he’s likely to get the biggest guarantee amongst this year’s group of bullpen arms.

There’s also some quiet talk that a handful of teams may be looking at a return to the rotation given his deep arsenal with multiple pitches, but Hoffman would be closing out games for the Jays in the ninth inning if this one came to fruition.

Over the past two years, Hoffman has totalled 3.6 fWAR, struck out 158 across 118.2 frames and posted a 2.28 ERA.

RP Blake Treinen, LAD, age-37

If you don’t want to go after the top couple of relievers on the market that are in their early 30s, there’s a large group of greybeards that are likely to continue performing just fine despite their advanced age.

Treinen was unreal for the Dodgers in 2024, and that’s a trend that has shown up for most of his career now. When he’s healthy, he’s elite.

His career ERA is 2.78 and he’s been even better since 2021 with a ridiculous 1.96 ERA across 127 appearances.

RP Kenley Jansen, BOS, age-37

Similar story to Treinen, but with a little less frame-by-frame dominance and more of a track record of health.

Jansen signed a two-year, $32-million deal two winters ago and his performance has not slipped one bit as he’s been worth at least 1.1 fWAR in every healthy season since 2019.

Whatever team he signs another two-year deal with is probably going to get career save No. 500, too, as Jansen currently sits on 447 close outs.

RP/SP Mike Soroka, CHW, age-27

Michael Soroka Chicago White Sox

The second Canuck on this list, Soroka’s market will be intriguing.

At one point, the Calgary native looked to be simply hanging onto a big-league job as he was pitching to an ugly 6.39 ERA as a starter for the lowly Chicago White Sox.

As a member of the rotation, Soroka struck out only 24 batters across 43.2 innings and allowed a gaudy .509 slugging percentage.

Banished to the bullpen in mid-May, it took the right-hander a while to find his footing but across his final 11 appearances he struck out a whopping 41 batters across 24.1 frames, mostly in a multi-inning relief role.

He finished with a 1.48 ERA in those outings and a 2.75 ERA as a reliever, overall.

I love a good reclamation project, and the question now is whether that work as a reliever a jumping-off point for a mid-career metamorphosis, or if a team wants to give him another look in the rotation since he’s still just 27.

RP AJ Minter, ATL, age-31

In my opinion, Minter and his career 3.28 make him the highest-upside lefty available this winter.

The Jays will definitely need a southpaw and if it’s not Minter (or a trade), you’re into the veteran bucket of Andrew Chafin, Danny Coulombe, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner and Will Smith, among a handful of others.

RP Jonathan Loaisiga, NYY, age-30

Now we’re getting deep into the reliever group. So deep that it’s debatable if and when these guys will actually be healthy.

This is simply a bet on stuff.

Loaisiga is filthy but he’s also as inconsistent as they come, a lot that thanks to arm injuries.

After succumbing to TJ in April, maybe he’s ready for a run of good health as he enters his thirties.

It’s elite setup man stuff with an elite 54.7 per cent career ground ball rate.

RP Kendall Graveman, HOU, age-34

Another Blue Jays draft pick from more than a decade ago, Graveman missed all of 2024 while recovering from the shoulder surgery he had last January.

He was back throwing bullpens in August, but if the medicals look good he won’t cost much, and he’d fit nicely in a middle relief role if the stuff is the same.

The Jays are going to need some good fortune when it comes to their bullpen additions this winter and how they mix upside with reliability — or at least as reliable as you can ask for when it comes to the most volatile job in baseball — will be interesting to watch.