Skenes' stardom and CY Young odds rapidly on the move
Published
It’s time to talk about Paul Skenes, again.
The last time I wrote about Skenes I was talking about his Instagram following and his girlfriend's TikTok account.
Now, I’m here to write about his Cy Young odds.
Life comes at you fast. Allow me to explain.
The No. 1 pick from last year’s MLB draft just so happens to be dating one of the biggest social media influencers in North America (Olivia Dunne).
When Skenes was called up to the big leagues, FanDuel gave Dunne and her boyfriend the Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce treatment.
New novelty markers surrounded Skenes for his MLB debut that I had never seen before. Strikeouts and moneyline be damned, I was locked in on how many Instagram followers he would gain throughout the duration of the game and how many TikToks Dunne would post on the day of the game.
Yes, I get to do this for work. Yes, I know it’s awesome.
For the record, Skenes gained more than 80,000 followers on Instagram that day thanks to an extended game with a rain delay.
Cashing the 80k+ number at +880.
Dunne only posted one TikTok and over 1.5 (-142) was a loser. Can’t win them all.
Anyway, we’ve arrived at the All-Star Game, so who cares about social media. Skenes is the starting pitcher for the National League.
Suddenly, he’s the favourite to win Rookie of the Year and has firmly entered his name in the Cy Young conversation.
I reached out to my good friends at FanDuel and received a timeline of Skenes’ odds to win each award.
Let’s get to that story.
Paul Skenes Rookie of The Year odds timeline
January 10, 2024 (+2500)
With pitchers and catchers about one month away from reporting to spring training, Skenes came in at +2500 to win National League Rookie of the Year. At the time, we still weren’t sure if Skenes would make the team out of Spring Training or be sent to the minors for some **cough, cough service time manipulation** “fine-tuning.”
March 27 (+4500)
Now we have our answer. After throwing three innings with the Pirates in Spring Training, Skenes was sent to the team’s minor-league camp. With Skenes’ landing in Triple-A to start the season, his odds to win Rookie of the Year ballooned to 45-1.
May 9 (+1700)
It didn’t take long for Skenes to get the attention of the Pirates with his play in Triple-A. Pittsburgh called up Skenes after seven starts, where he posted a 0.99 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 27.1 innings.
June 1 (+400)
All it took was four starts for Skenes to become one of the favourites to win the award. He picked up the first win of his career in his second start giving up no hits and striking out 11 through six innings while making his Wrigley Field debut.
July 16 ( -1100)
Yup, life happens fast, and it happens even quicker if you’re one of the best pitchers in the world at the age of 22. Skenes has been everything as advertised to date. In 11 starts, he has a 6-0 record with a 1.90 ERA and is averaging 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He was selected to the All-Star Game, becoming the first No. 1 draft pick to do so as a rookie. The -1100 price to win NL ROY represents an implied probability of 91.67 per cent.
Paul Skenes NL CY Young odds timeline:
May 2 (+20000)
With Skenes dominating Triple-A baseball, his name appears near the bottom of the odds board at 200-1. Considering he hadn’t ever thrown a pitch in a regular-season MLB game, it seems like quite the compliment. It also turns out it was a huge opportunity missed.
June 17: +10000
After making just seven starts, Skenes' number to win the CY Young was slashed in half. The Pirates won six of his seven starts and Skenes was putting up video game-type numbers. A 4-0 record with 53 strikeouts compared to just seven walks is wild. Even at 100-1, we didn’t know how good we had it.
July 7 (+5000), July 12 (+ 850)
More domination in June and early July saw Skenes’ price to win NL Cy Young once again cut in half. But the most significant drop we’ve seen came after his last start before the All-Star break, where he no-hit the Milwaukee Brewers and struck out 11 over seven innings before being pulled from the game. That saw Skenes’ price fall to +850, and firmly placed his name in consideration to win the award.
July 16 +500
Only Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale and Philadelphia Phillies’ starter Zack Wheeler have lower odds to win the Cy Young than Skenes as we’ve reached the All-Star Game. After being named the starter for the NL, Skenes’ price was once again adjusted, and he’s now 5-1. After opening at 200-1 (implied probability of 0.50 per cent), the +500 price now carries an implied probability of 16.67 per cent.
The only pitcher in MLB history to win the Cy Young Award as a rookie is Fernando Valenzuela.