Top 50 Blue Jays prospects of 2024
Published
For the sixth year in a row, we go deep into Toronto Blue Jays farm system to highlight not only the next set of potential superstars, but also the depth pieces that could help surround what the front office expects to be a championship-calibre team for at least the next two seasons.
The system has changed a lot in a half-decade.
The 2019 list was headlined by the core now in Toronto, and the way the club has used their minor-league inventory has changed significantly as the team has become a contender, as well, and it may be shifting once again.
As the aforementioned core gets closer and closer to free agency, the franchise has to start thinking about the next era, and that seems to be happening with some investments in high-risk, high-upside talent.
I’ll cut the preamble short there because there’s an obscene 12,000 words of thoughts built into the player descriptions that outline where things stand.
But first, a handful of bullet point observations:
There are a few clear tiers. Ricky Tiedemann stands alone. Then, the young, upside guys in the top five, followed by a big group of upper-level position players on the verge of contributing in the big leagues, and then a glut of risky arms. Past about 20 or so, you could argue for and shuffle just about any name in my top 40 if you really wanted to.
Lots of relievers. I considered more true relievers than ever before and, in the end, a lot of them ended up making the list. It’s a combination of two factors. In an effort to find pitching to help them win ASAP, the Jays have drafted more of them in the middle rounds. The second factor is it’s not a deep system and a lot of the lower-level breakout players I liked coming into 2023 didn’t exactly have great seasons, leaving them very hard to evaluate and more in the 51-75 range, which is littered with FCL and DSL position players and a handful of teenage arms.
It’s not a great system. Bottom-third in baseball is the easiest way to describe it in a very subjective MLB ranking.
Lastly, a new element this year is “future roles.” Out of six big-league position player roles that I believe cover every box and six pitcher roles that do the same thing, I’ve assigned one to every prospect. Obviously, the upper-level guys are more certain, while any role you see assigned to a lower-level prospect is subject to change each January when the new top 50 list drops. More on that below, including a glossary of my definitions.
PREVIOUS YEARS
Here’s a quick look at how my top 50 lists have broken down in each of the past five years if you want to go back in time:
2023 // 2022 // 2021 // 2020 // 2019
FUTURE ROLES (NEW)
POSITION PLAYERS
First-division starter: An important everyday player on a contender.
Second-division starter: An everyday player on a non-contender. Good enough to start, but you’re probably upgrading when the time comes to win.
Corner platoon bat: Doesn’t play up the middle — whether that’s infield or outfield — and will probably show some platoon splits.
Bat-first utilityman: Plays multiple positions, but he’s in the lineup for his bat. Think Cavan Biggio.
Glove-first utilityman: Plays multiple positions, but it’s the glove that counts. Think Ryan Goins.
Bench specialist: An elite defender and/or base-stealer who fits best as a 26th man on a roster. Think 2015 post-season Dalton Pompey.
PITCHERS
Top-of-the-rotation SP: Anyone in the ace discussion that you’d want starting a post-season game.
Mid-rotation SP: Good innings-eater, maybe with upside for more.
Back-end SP: Has starter traits and will get chances but may not stick long-term.
High-leverage RP: Elite 8th and 9th inning arms.
Middle RP: Single-inning relievers who aren’t quite high-leverage.
Multi-inning RP: A role that is becoming trendy across baseball as teams try to develop them is the one-time-through-the-order reliever, a hybrid version of the old swingman.
ELIGIBILITY
Pitchers: Under 50 career innings.
Hitters: Under 130 career at-bats.
TOP 50 BY POSITION
Catchers: 2
Corner infielders: 8
Middle infielders: 5
Utility guys: 5
Outfielders: 9
Pitchers: 21
HOW THEY WERE ACQUIRED
Trade: 5
MLB Draft: 27
International free agency: 18
AFFILIATE LEVELS
Triple-A East: Buffalo Bisons (AAA)
Double-A Northeast: New Hampshire Fisher-Cats (AA)
High-A West: Vancouver Canadians (A+)
Single-A Southeast: Dunedin Blue Jays (A)
Florida Complex League: FCL Blue Jays (CPX)
Dominican Summer League: DSL Blue Jays (DSL)
GRADUATED (1)
13. RHP Nate Pearson, age-26, MLB (75.2 innings)
GONE (2+5 NR)
9. RHP Sem Robberse, age-21, AA (traded to STL for Jordan Hicks)
44. RHP Adam Kloffenstein, age-22, AA (traded to STL for Jordan Hicks)
NR RHP Matt Svanson, age-24, AA (traded to STL for Paul DeJong)
NR LHP Nick Allgeyer, age-27, AAA (traded to PHI for cash)
NR 2B/OF Vinny Capra, age-26, AAA (traded to PIT for Tyler Heineman)
NR C Sammy Hernandez, age-19, A (traded to STL for Genesis Cabrera)
NR C Juan Gonzalez, age-22, A (traded to CWS for cash)
FELL OFF (14)
21—20—2B/SS Estiven Machado, age-21, A+
24—21—RHP Adrian Hernandez, age-24, AA
26—49—C Luis Meza, age-19, CPX
29—32—RHP Trent Palmer, age-25, A
30—NA—2B/C Carlos Vasquez, age-19, CPX
31—48—OF/C Zach Britton, age-25, AA
32—36—2B/3B Tanner Morris, age-26, AAA
34—14—RHP Irv Carter, age-21, A
39—NR—LHP Jimmy Robbins, age-26, AAA
41—NR—OF Robert Robertis, age-21, A
42—43—OF Yeuni Munoz, age-20, CPX
43—NR—RHP Alejandro Melean, age-23, AA
46—29—2B/SS Luis Garcia, age-20, A
49—NR—RHP Eliander Alcalde, age-20, A
HONOURABLE MENTIONS (13)
HM—26—43—C Luis Meza, age-19, CPX
HM—29—32—RHP Trent Palmer, age-25, A
HM—30—NA—2B/C Carlos Vasquez, age-19, CPX
HM—31—48—OF/C Zach Britton, age-25, AA
HM—42—43—OF Yeuni Munoz, age-20, CPX
HM—49—NR—RHP Eliander Alcalde, age-20, A
HM—NR—NA—1B Peyton Williams, age-23, A+
HM—NA—NA—2B/3B Nick Goodwin, age-22, A+
HM—NR—NR—LHP Trenton Wallace, age-25, AA
HM—NA—NA—LHP Connor O’Halloran, age-21, A
HM—NR—NA—RHP Samuel Acuna, age-18, DSL
HM—NR—NR—OF Railin Tejada, age-19, DSL
HM—NR—NR—3B/OF Aneudi Escanio, age-19, DSL
50. C Franklin Rojas
Last year’s ranking: NA 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2024 IFA (Venezuela)
2024 age: 17
Expected starting affiliate: Dominican Summer League
YEAR IN REVIEW: A right-handed hitting catcher from Venezuela, Rojas is seen as a potential everyday player, with oodles of power for his age — he’s already produced some triple-digit exit velocities in showcases — and a strong arm behind the plate. He’s also very athletic, which might eventually draw some comparisons to fellow Venezuelan Gabriel Moreno.
OUTLOOK: It’s easy to make the exciting Venezuelan comps, but Rojas essentially replaces another catcher from that country on this list in Luis Meza, who the Jays gave $2.25 million in the 2022 IFA class. It’s way too early to close the book on Meza as a teen, but he has not developed as hoped over his first two years as a professional.
FUTURE ROLE: First-division starter
MLB ETA: 2029
49. OF Yunior Arias
Last year’s ranking: NA 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2024 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 17
Expected starting affiliate: Dominican Summer League
YEAR IN REVIEW: You might see this outfielder’s name listed as Andres Arias, but the Jays call him Junior with a ‘Y’ and the massive 6-foot-4 outfielder has a ton of upside thanks to his long levers. Physically and tools-wise, he’s an Enmanuel Bonilla starter kit, but instead of the $4.1 million he got, the Jays shelled out in the range of $900,000 to sign Arias this January thanks to a shade of difference in the tools.
OUTLOOK: The calling card here is the bat, as Arias has already impressed with his ability to use the whole field, but he’s checked in at 105-mph off the barrel, too. There’s a typical everyday right fielder profile here if things click. Check back in four years.
FUTURE ROLE: First-division starter
MLB ETA: 2029
48. 2B Miguel Hiraldo
Last year’s ranking: 47 2022 rank: 18
Acquired: 2017 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: It’s been a long, winding journey for Hiraldo on this prospect list over the years, starting at No. 15 five years ago when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sat at No. 1, and slowly falling in the seasons since. It looked like Hiraldo was going to fall off the list this year, but a 115 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in Double-A last year gives him another life. One interesting aspect of Hiraldo’s profile is he’s showing the ability to crush left-handed pitching, posting an .893 OPS in 2023, which could earn him some platoon work down the road if things continue to progress.
OUTLOOK: The strikeouts are rising, and he doesn’t walk much, but Hiraldo had some pop with the Fisher Cats with 33 extra-base hits and finally showed some of the hitterish qualities that earned him a lucrative $750,000 signing bonus seven years ago. With the glut of infielders ahead of him, Hiraldo will likely return to Double-A and essentially needs to hit his way out of that level.
FUTURE ROLE: Bat-first utilityman
MLB ETA: 2026
47. C Edward Duran
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: Trade from Miami, Aug. 31, 2022 (Jordan Groshans)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: Signed by the Marlins out of Venezuela in 2021 and traded to the Jays as a player to be named later in the 2022 swap that sent former top prospect Jordan Groshans to South Beach in exchange for bullpen reinforcements Anthony Bass and Zach Pop, Duran showed enough with the bat this year to climb onto the back end of this list. Overall, the right-handed hitter batted .315/.422/.417 with two home runs across 41 games in the lower levels of the minors. Duran’s 132 wRC+ was 11th-best in the organization and the only other teenager that topped that mark was first-round pick Arjun Nimmala, who only had 40 plate appearances.
OUTLOOK: The once ocean-deep catching pipeline that the Blue Jays boasted has completely dried up, with Duran one of just two catchers on the list this year. The question as well with every young catcher is whether or not they’ll be able to stay behind the plate, and Duran has already dabbled at first base, although that was mostly seen as just a way to get him some more at-bats. With Groshans struggling in the Miami organization and some past contributions from Bass and Pop, this trade looks like a clear win for GM Ross Atkins and his front office so far.
FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter
MLB ETA: 2028
46. OF Victor Arias
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2019 IFA (Venezuela)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: Arias makes his debut on this list, inching just past other young international names in the organization like Yeuni Munoz, Robert Robertis, Railin Tejada, Aneudi Escanio, Luis Meza, Carlos Vasquez, Faruk De La Cruz and Jean Joseph. Like most of those other names, the stat lines haven’t jumped out for Arias, a compact left-handed hitter, but he’s shown both an approach and some pop, which earned him an emergency look in Double-A late last year. His peak exit velocity of 107 mph shows there could be some growing pop.
OUTLOOK: Overall, Arias slashed just .216/.375/.381 with five homers and 16 swipes, but there’s enough bat speed to get excited about if he can keep an already alarming number of strikeouts in check.
FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter
MLB ETA: 2028
45. OF David Guzman
Last year’s ranking: 50 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 IFA (Venezuela)
2024 age: 18
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League
YEAR IN REVIEW: He was overshadowed by top international signing Enmanuel Bonilla last January, but Guzman still cracked the list in the final spot at No. 50 and then did enough in the DSL to stick. Using a compact cut from the left side of the plate that’s reminiscent of Kole Calhoun once in a while if you squint, Guzman, with his short and boxy frame, doesn’t project for a whole lot of power down the road, instead using a line-drive approach that meshes well with his low strikeout rate and bat-to-ball skills.
OUTLOOK: With Bonilla playing centre field every day in the Dominican last summer, Guzman made 45 of his 50 starts in right and there’s a chance he could move up this list in a significant way after his stateside debut this year.
FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat
MLB ETA: 2028
44. 1B Rainer Nunez
Last year’s ranking: 27 2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2017 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: While there were many disappointing offensive performances throughout the system early on last year, some were still able to turn things on as the weather warmed up. Nunez, unfortunately, was not one of them as he really struggled in his first taste of Double-A pitching. Not only did he strike out at a career-worst 27 per cent clip, but the game power also dried up from his 2022 breakout with just 13 homers across nearly 500 trips to the plate.
OUTLOOK: There’s no questioning the raw power Nunez possesses, as his exit velocities continue to be amongst the most impressive in the system. But as a right-handed hitting first baseman, Nunez has to hit, hit, and then hit some more in order to find a major-league future, and he did not do enough of that in 2023. Without doing major damage at the plate on a regular basis, it’s a tough profile to envision working, but the raw power is too exciting to give up on yet.
FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat
MLB ETA: 2026
43. SS/2B Manuel Beltre
Last year’s ranking: 20 2022 rank: 11
Acquired: 2021 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver
YEAR IN REVIEW: If you could combine Rainer Nunez and Beltre’s best skills, you might have a heck of a prospect. Unfortunately, that’s not allowed yet, so the Jays will continue to try to find ways to get Beltre to hit the ball harder. Beltre slashed a muted .231/.335/.340 with six home runs across 98 games, while splitting time between the two middle infield spots. The defence has come along, and a full-time shortstop is on the table, but the bat is light.
OUTLOOK: Even though he took a tumble in these rankings this year, let’s start with the good first. While he’ll never wow you with acrobatics, Beltre makes all the plays he needs to a shortstop, which is going to be important because the offensive profile has him facing a glove-first utilityman future at this point. It’s important to remember how young Beltre is, but the bat is on notice.
FUTURE ROLE: Glove-first utilityman
MLB ETA: 2027
42. RHP Ryan Jennings
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 fourth round (128th overall)
2024 age: 25
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver
YEAR IN REVIEW: Despite spending a good portion of the summer on the injured list with an elbow issue and ending up with just 43 innings to his credit, the Louisiana Tech product returned to fire three hitless innings in the postseason to help the Vancouver Canadians to their fifth Northwest League title.
OUTLOOK: The Jays continue to take college-aged arms in the middle rounds of the draft and hope they strike gold. Jennings bounced back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen in college and many believe that will be the case as a pro, but there were positive signs in 2023. With a fastball that touches 95-96 mph and a lively curveball as an out pitch, Jennings should be monitored closely once he gets to Double-A.
FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP
MLB ETA: 2026
41. RHP Michael Dominguez
Last year’s ranking: 48 2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2019 15th round (447th overall)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: Armed with one of the most unique pitches in the organization with an odd slider shape that can befuddle hitters at times, Dominguez quietly get pretty good results as he moves up the minor-league food chain, finishing 2023 with the second-most strikeouts in the organization with 120 across his 102.1 frames.
OUTLOOK: There’s a good chance Dominguez is a reliever in the end and some alarming results against left-handed hitters in his eight starts at Double-A — he allowed a whopping 11 homers across 35.2 innings, and eight of them came off the bats of lefties — shows he’s going to have to work hard to get upper-minors hitters out and refine his arsenal.
FUTURE ROLE: Multi-inning RP
MLB ETA: 2026
40. LHP Mason Fluharty
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 fifth round (158th overall)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: If you’re looking for a group of arms that could impact the Blue Jays bullpen sooner rather than later, you’ve now arrived. The Jays have spent a lot of draft capital trying to find some close-to-ready pitching depth in the past three drafts, and some of those arms took steps forward in 2023. Using a tricky, low-slot delivery, Fluharty was really good in reaching Double-A last year, finishing with a 3.28 ERA and 75 punch-outs across 57.2 innings.
OUTLOOK: If you’ve read these pieces over the years, you know that relievers have bounced around in terms of value. From Julian Merryweather to Nate Pearson to Adrian Hernandez to Hagen Danner to Connor Cooke’s appearance in the top 25 this year, they’re very hard to predict and really the only reason there’s such a large group of RP-only arms in the 30-40 area this year is the lack of depth in the system. Any one of these names could be in the big leagues by June or just as easily off the list altogether a year from now. At the very least, it’s an intriguing group of arms.
FUTURE ROLE: Middle RP
MLB ETA: 2025
39. RHP T.J. Brock
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 sixth round (188th overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: There’s really no secret when it comes to Brock, a right-hander out of Ohio State. The slider is filthy, and he uses it a lot, helping him strike out 56 batters in just 32 appearances once he got to Double-A. The on-paper results weren’t great, however, as Brock finished with a 6.68 ERA in New Hampshire last year.
OUTLOOK: If the results match the quality of his stuff in the first half of the season, Brock might not be in the minors long if injuries strike in the big leagues. He may have to hop over a couple of these other names to do it, but there’s a chance he’s helping soon.
FUTURE ROLE: Middle RP
MLB ETA: 2025
38. RHP Hayden Juenger
Last year’s ranking: 14 2022 rank: 31
Acquired: 2021 sixth round (182nd overall)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Juenger’s role has been all over the map over the past couple of seasons as the Jays tried desperately to develop the Missouri State righty as a one-time-through-the-order bulk arm. Command issues have hindered that at times, as Juenger spent the entire year in Triple-A last season, walking 39 batters across 75.1 innings and plunking six more. One wrinkle is the automated balls and strikes system in Triple-A is believed to have spiked walk rates at times as pitchers adjusted, so some are taking command issues at the highest level of the minor leagues with a grain of salt due to the robo umps. On the other side of that coin, many believe Triple-A walk rates for hitters were higher than what players project to do in the majors. The ABS system has created an interesting evaluation wrinkle for the time being.
OUTLOOK: In addition to some command issues, Juenger was simply too hittable at times last year and is tinkering with his pitch mix in order to refine his changeup against lefties. With a low arm slot coming from a different angle for the 6-footer, Juenger can be tough to hit when he’s on, but consistency has eluded him thus far.
FUTURE ROLE: Multi-inning RP
MLB ETA: 2024
37. RHP Hagen Danner
Last year’s ranking: 25 2022 rank: 24
Acquired: 2017 second round (61st overall)
2024 age: 25
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: The story with Danner, a converted catcher, since he transitioned back to the mound three years ago, is this: The stuff is filthy … when healthy. Staying on the mound has been an issue for Danner, whose run of bad injury luck continued when he suffered an oblique strain during his MLB debut last year, ending his season.
OUTLOOK: With a fastball in the 95-98 range and a devastating slider, Danner’s stuff is back-of-the-bullpen material. All that’s standing in the way of that is health, just like Julian Merryweather and Nate Pearson previously.
FUTURE ROLE: High-leverage RP
MLB ETA: Debuted Aug. 11, 2023
36. RHP Bowden Francis
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: 23
Acquired: Trade from Milwaukee, July 6, 2021 (Rowdy Tellez)
2024 age: 28
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Some dig the long-ball, so there’s been some unnecessary fawning over Rowdy Tellez the last couple of years. But now that the big first baseman was non-tendered by the Brewers this off-season, the trade that netted the Jays both Francis and useful reliever Trevor Richards looks pretty good. Francis sat all the way up at No. 23 on this list two years ago, before it looked like he was destined for a middle relief future. That could still be the case, but Francis was quietly excellent wherever he pitched in 2023, including a 1.73 ERA across 20 big-league games.
OUTLOOK: That middle reliever future may very well come true in the end, but Francis is expected to be stretched out as rotation depth this winter and with very little surrounding him at Triple-A he may be needed. His inclusion, especially this high, at the age of 28 speaks to both the lack of overall depth in the system, but especially the lack of potential rotation depth. If you have any chance to be even a back-end big-league starter, you’ll make this list. With 37 innings on his big-league resume, this will be his last year here barring injury.
FUTURE ROLE: Multi-inning RP
MLB ETA: Debuted April 27, 2022
35. RHP Yosver Zulueta
Last year’s ranking: 4 2022 rank: 15
Acquired: 2019 IFA (Cuba)
2024 age: 26
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Sometimes you run guys up lists early and it simply doesn’t work out the way you expect. From No. 45 in 2020 to No. 15 for two years straight and then all the way up to No. 4 on this list last year, Zulueta’s stock continued to rise with the thought that his command issues would even out as he was further removed from defecting from Cuba and a TJ surgery that kept him away from a competitive mound for far too long. The idea was that was going to happen at Triple-A to begin 2023, and before long the electric righty would be in the mix for a spot start or two and maybe a rotation spot with an injury. Instead, Zulueta’s wobbly command regressed further in Buffalo, and he was eventually shifted into a single inning bullpen role by the end of the year. His total body of work included 45 walks and 10 hit batters across 45 appearances. Not what you want.
OUTLOOK: While last year did not go well at all for Zulueta and it ensured a bullpen future, the torn ACL he suffered in 2022 was bothering him at times, so there’s one grain of salt you can take. He ended up pitching in the Dominican Winter League and while the numbers don’t look that great, with five more free passes and six earned runs allowed across 9.1 frames, Zulueta’s stuff was back to looking pretty electric at times. There’s a lights-out reliever touching triple digits in here if things click.
FUTURE ROLE: High-leverage RP
MLB ETA: 2024
34. RHP Devereaux Harrison
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 9th round (278th overall)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: The Jays definitely have types when it comes to mid-round pitchers, and one inefficiency they seem to scour for is arms who have been overlooked by scouts because they’ve spent a good amount of time in NCAA bullpens. At Long Beach State coming into the draft, that’s what Harrison did, and that continued in 2022 in his first year as a pro, which is why he didn’t make this list last year. Given the chance to start in May last year, Harrison flourished, registered a 1.23 ERA across his first seven starts, allowing just 23 hits across 36.2 frames. The right-hander would finish with a 2.95 ERA in 94.2 innings.
OUTLOOK: While Harrison tired late in the season, that was expected given the workload jump and his three-pitch mix of heater, changeup and really good slider worked so much better than expected in a rotation role that he was one of the better stories in the system. He even combined on a seven inning no-hitter with Matt Svanson, who was later traded for Paul DeJong. While Harrison lands at No. 34 here, various incarnations had him in the 20-30 range and I would not argue if you wanted him there over some of the lower-level upside guys.
FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP
MLB ETA: 2026
33. 2B/OF Adrian Pinto
Last year’s ranking: 18 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: Trade from Colorado, March 24, 2022 (Randal Grichuk)
2024 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: Pinto is in a group here with a couple of upper-level utilitymen, but injuries have set the versatile and athletic right-handed hitter back since the Jays acquired him in the trade that sent Randal Grichuk to Denver and brought back Pinto and Raimel Tapia. In 29 Single-A games between leg injuries, Pinto did do some nice things, getting on base at a .413 clip and stealing 12 bases, but the sample size is so small over the past two years that it’s really hard to evaluate the entire package of skills.
OUTLOOK: With speed and defensive versatility, Pinto has caught the eye of Jays big-league staffers in camp over the last two years, but he simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field enough to move out of the lower levels. Now heading into his age-21 season, it’s paramount he finds a way to stay healthy, which would allow the Jays to figure out if he’s a second baseman or a centre fielder. He might end up just being both as a low-impact utility guy as this ranking suggests. Or he could break out this season. Your guess.
FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter
MLB ETA: 2026
32. INF/OF Rafael Lantigua
Last year’s ranking: 45 2022 rank: 46
Acquired: 2016 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 26
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Lantigua doesn’t get any prospect love, but he continues to slowly climb up this list by producing at every single stop, showing some sneaky exit velocities, and playing just about every position on the diamond. He played six of them last year, dabbling at all three outfield spots, as well as shortstop, third base and second base. It was just gravy that he finished with an impressive 131 wRC+ and a .305/.425/.469 slash line, adding 12 homers and 28 steals. He even paced the organization in hits (142), doubles (40) and walks (98).
OUTLOOK: A minor-league free agent at the end of the season, Lantigua looked around for opportunities, before deciding to return. There’s not a lot of upside here, but the perception gap between Lantigua and the next name on this list, Otto Lopez, who’s been viewed as a top 15 prospect in the system at times, is interesting. One of these years, Lantigua is going to be pressed into duty and don’t be surprised when he performs better than most expect. He’s another layer of Triple-A depth that the Jays have lying in wait behind the group of infielders already on the 40-man roster.
FUTURE ROLE: Glove-first utilityman
MLB ETA: 2024
31. INF/OF Otto Lopez
Last year’s ranking: 16 2022 rank: 8
Acquired: 2016 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 25
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: After looking great at the WBC for Canada, Lopez’s season went down the drain thanks to nagging injuries, and what little power he did have completely dried up in the process. Overall, Lopez slashed .258/.313/.343 with just a 68 wRC+ plus across 84 Triple-A games, well down from the 114 mark he posted in Buffalo in 2022.
OUTLOOK: Now out of options, the 2024 season is an important one for Lopez to start rebuilding his stock, and there’s a very good chance it’s in another organization eventually, one that can give him some at-bats. His defensive versatility and on-base ability give him a chance to carve out a long career on a bench still.
FUTURE ROLE: Glove-first utilityman
MLB ETA: Debuted Aug. 27, 2021
30. OF Gabriel Martinez
Last year’s ranking: 11 2022 rank: 41
Acquired: 2018 IFA (Venezuela)
2024 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver
YEAR IN REVIEW: One of the most disappointing seasons in the entire system was authored by a player who was the most exciting breakout prospect on this list a year ago. Welcome to baseball and prospect prognostication. You just never really know how players are going to perform with all of the variables involved. Martinez went from showing off his hit tool with burgeoning power in 2022 to struggling mightily at High-A Vancouver last year, watching his wRC+ drop to a well below average 82. It’s hard to find many positives from a season that was mediocre from start to finish.
OUTLOOK: Martinez’s hit tool is the driving force, but he doesn’t have much foot speed in the outfield and the projection is very middling at this point. He’s going to have to go back to Vancouver in an attempt to rebuild his stock this summer.
FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat
MLB ETA: 2026
29. OF Dasan Brown
Last year’s ranking: 17 2022 rank: 38
Acquired: 2019 third round (88th overall)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: Coming off a bit of a breakout offensively, one that pushed him back into the top 20 on this list, the Oakville, Ont., product unfortunately fell back to earth at the exact same stop, slashing .218/.309/.315 with seven homers and 26 steals across 107 games. With Brown, it’s a combination of approach and swing plane issues and he’s still really raw as a hitter after trying to find himself over the last few years.
OUTLOOK: So, here’s the thing with Brown, and the reason he’s still in the top 30 — there’s a very good chance he’s a major leaguer eventually. He provides elite centre field defence and that’s not in question, while his wheels on the basepaths also provide value. Making a bit more contact and finding a consistent approach at the plate — both easier said than done — are all that’s separating Brown from a fifth-outfielder career on a big-league bench. Having Kevin Kiermaier in the organization for another year as a sounding board for Brown won’t hurt, either.
FUTURE ROLE: Bench specialist
MLB ETA: 2026
28. OF Yhoangel Aponte
Last year’s ranking: 40 2022 rank: 16
Acquired: 2021 IFA (Venezuela)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: Aponte was primed to be my Yosver Zulueta — the guy I somewhat irrationally push up the list early based on one glowing report or two — but a ho-hum stateside debut had me pumping the breaks on that a bit. It looked like 2023 was going to be more of the same — and it was in certain areas — but the one notable jump was in the power department, as Aponte hit nine home runs in just 50 games. Unfortunately, strikeout issues came with those round-trippers and there’s a bit too much swing and miss.
OUTLOOK: Aponte went off at Single-A to finish the year out, posting a 192 wRC+ and hitting a homer in his six games there, which has a handful of people predicting a breakout 2024. This ranking suggests that will happen to an extent, and it’s been interesting to monitor Aponte’s development as it came with a Jackie Bradley Jr. glove comparison early on. As he’s filled out since signing three years ago, it’s more of a corner outfield profile these days. Last year, his peak exit velocity of 109.1 mph could be a sign of things to come if he curbs the whiffiness.
FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat
MLB ETA: 2027
27. 2B/OF Sam Shaw
Last year’s ranking: NA 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 ninth round (274th overall)
2024 age: 19
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League
YEAR IN REVIEW: A bat-first prospect, the Jays gave Shaw a $282,500 bonus, well above the ninth-round slot value of $175,900 at his spot, in order to lure him away from a commitment to Xavier. He then went out and backed up some quietly good pre-draft scouting reports with a 111 wRC+ across nine complex league games.
OUTLOOK: A left-handed hitter without a position at this point, Shaw’s throwing issues seem to have become a thing of the past post-draft this fall, giving him a chance to play either second base or centre field in the eyes of most evaluators. The Jays seem to want to try both, but it’s the bat that’s going to give him an MLB future if things click.
FUTURE ROLE: Bat-first utilityman
MLB ETA: 2028
26. RHP CJ Van Eyk
Last year’s ranking: 36 2022 rank: 12
Acquired: 2020 second round (42nd overall)
2024 age: 25
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: Drafted way back in the pandemic year in 2020, Van Eyk missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John, finally making it back onto a mound in May last year, but it was an odd season overall when all was said and done. After debuting throwing 3-4 innings at a time, Van Eyk was shut down in May and then again in June with some non-arm related issues. He made it back at the end of July to reel off nine starts on turn, once again of the 3-4 inning variety, including four Double-A starts. His return from TJ was enough to land him back in the same range as last year, but where Van Eyk took a bit of a jump was during his Arizona Fall League showing, at which point the stuff looked a whole lot more crisp.
OUTLOOK: With a starter’s arsenal that includes a couple different breaking balls — the curve is the out pitch — and a changeup, Van Eyk’s breakout potential and bullpen potential are about even. As I’ve written numerous times in this piece about a number of prospects facing turning points, it’s an important year for Van Eyk in terms of rebuilding his stock and proving he’s a starter. There are some breakout vibes coming off the AFL performance.
FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP
MLB ETA: 2025
25. RHP Nolan Perry
Last year’s ranking: 39 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 12th round (368th overall)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: Perry made my breakouts piece last year, and even though he jumps 14 spots in these rankings, it wasn’t quite that. It could still be coming, however, because for a 12th-round teenager, Perry held his own. The lanky New Mexico product made four starts and got into nine games on the complex, finishing with an ugly 7.28 ERA. The holding his own part is derived from the 4.05 FIP and 11.9 K/9, as the underlying numbers looked a whole lot better than the ERA. Blame that .393 BABIP.
OUTLOOK: With a four-pitch mix — four-seamer, slider, curve and split — and some strike-throwing qualities, Perry’s 80 or so innings this season in full season ball will be interesting to monitor. It’s probably a touch early to label him a breakout candidate once again, but incremental progress is fine, too.
FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP
MLB ETA: 2027
24. RHP Dahian Santos
Last year’s ranking: 10 2022 rank: 13
Acquired: 2019 IFA (Venezuela)
2024 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver
YEAR IN REVIEW: The 2023 season had a chance to be a big breakout year for Santos coming off a career-high 86 frames in 2022, giving him a chance to build the type of innings a potential swing-and-miss starter needs heading into the upper minors. That did not happen. Instead, his season ended with a forearm strain after 12 starts and 48.1 innings. He didn’t quite show the same strikeout stuff as he did in 2022 when he whiffed 120 batters across his 73.1 Single-A innings, but the slider is still a legit out pitch.
OUTLOOK: Listed at just 5-foot-11, 160 pounds, Santos does not have the build of a typical starting pitcher and the club has been hoping to add velocity to his 92-mph heater as he adds size. A good athlete, the Jays will continue to develop Santos in the rotation, and he seems to have dodged a bullet with the forearm and is expected to be on track for spring training. If the command doesn’t come around and the frame doesn’t hold up, Santos might be a pretty nasty one-time-through-the-order reliever with the slider alone.
FUTURE ROLE: Multi-inning RP
MLB ETA: 2026
23. RHP Connor Cooke
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2021 10th round (302nd overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Welcome to the list, Mr. Cooke, we’ve been waiting for you. Cooke’s velocity has been all over the map in his career, going from low-90s in college to ramping all the way up to close to triple digits at times during instructs a couple years ago to settling back into the mid-90s range. The rise on the fastball is enough to make it a swing-and-miss pitch in a couple different velocity bands, and it helps that he pairs it with an absolutely disgusting slider, or sweeper if you want to call it that.
OUTLOOK: A reliever seems to make it into my top 25 every year, with mixed success. Whether it’s Julian Merryweather or Nate Pearson or Hagen Danner, there’s usually one common trait — elite stuff. Even though the results were mixed, and the walks jumped once he got to Triple-A, Cooke struck out a massive 80 hitters across just 44.1 frames last year and seems primed to continue that break out. He’s also a reliever, so things could go completely backwards. The one thing I do know is Cooke’s middle name is Stutzman, and that’s something.
FUTURE ROLE: High-leverage RP
MLB ETA: 2024
22. 3B/2B Tucker Toman
Last year’s ranking: 5 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 second round (77th overall)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: Pushed aggressively to full season Single-A as a teenager, it did not go well for Toman. There’s a bit of a caveat as player development folks around the game are still sort of trying to figure out where to assign raw high school talent after the minor league structure changed a few years ago and the Single-A level is much more competitive than it used to be. But that doesn’t give Toman a full pass because there were lots of great performances from teens at that level. Either way, Toman was billed as a switch-hitter with an advanced feel and some raw power. Instead, a .208/.320/.313 slash line followed and Toman whiffed more than expected. He did, however, have a palatable 86.3 mph average exit velocity in his full-season debut.
OUTLOOK: As you might expect, Toman is one of the more mixed reviews from evaluators on this list and it is easy to understand why after his debut. Some are completely out, and a few think a mini breakout is in the cards. Completely opposite ends of the spectrum. Keeping the strikeouts in check is job No. 1 for Toman to rebuild his stock this summer, and he’s likely ticketed for a return stop at Single-A. Toman’s struggles last year might make the Jays player development group think twice about pushing teens like Arjun Nimmala or Enmanuel Bonilla there to start 2024, but sometimes spring training and rosters dictate those decisions.
FUTURE ROLE: Bat-first utilityman
MLB ETA: 2027
21. SS Josh Kasevich
Last year’s ranking: 22 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 second round (60th overall)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: Kasevich has two elite traits — his contact ability in the box and his shortstop defence. The first isn’t a debate at all and the tiny 5.2 per cent swing-and-miss rate proved that in his pro debut. There are evaluators not completely sold he’s a sure-shot shortstop, but internal metrics have the Oregon product as a top-notch defender at the 6. The bat is a bit light, but his .284/.363/.365 slash line at High-A is in line with his glove-first profile.
OUTLOOK: The Jays are trying to add some punch to Kasevich’s swing, but he’s shown very little pop his entire life so it would be fairly foolish to expect that aspect of his profile to suddenly click. It’s baseball, though, so never rule anything out. The question with Kasevich seems to simply be whether he’s going to hit enough to be a bottom-of-the-order table-setter who can help turn a lineup over by getting on base, or if his lack of power leaves him in a defensive replacement, bench-type role.
FUTURE ROLE: Glove-first utilityman
MLB ETA: 2026
20. 3B/SS Alex De Jesus
Last year’s ranking: 23 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: Trade from Los Angeles, Aug. 2, 2022 (Nick Frasso)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: Acquired from the Dodgers a couple years ago in a trade that the jury is still out on, but unless De Jesus pops it’s very likely to be an ‘L’ for the Blue Jays front office as Mitch White has disappointed as a depth rotation option so far and Nick Frasso has emerged as a solid pitching prospect, albeit one with relief risk still, on the West Coast. Don’t give up on De Jesus, an athletic right-handed hitter with power, popping just yet, though. Despite playing through a shoulder injury that needed surgery late in the year, De Jesus managed to turn in a decent statistical season, including a monster June with 11 extra-base hits and a 1.003 OPS.
OUTLOOK: The shoulder may slow him to start camp, but the problem has now been rectified and there are some breakout markers here heading into his age-22 season. With over 600 plate appearances at High-A already, we’re going to learn a lot about De Jesus once he reaches Double-A. The strikeouts will have to be watched, but De Jesus doesn’t swing-and-miss at an extreme rate, so there’s hope.
FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter
MLB ETA: 2026
19. RHP Chad Dallas
Last year’s ranking: 37 2022 rank: 30
Acquired: 2021 fourth round (121st overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Throwing the most innings in the organization (123.1) led to the most Ks (144) and overall a pretty good season for the man known as “Cheese.” The key for the right-hander since being drafted has been developing a third pitch to go along with his nasty slider in order to neutralize lefties. After mostly ditching the changeup, Dallas debuted a cutter in 2023, which led to a lot of success as he held left-handed hitters to a .632 OPS — actually a touch better than righties at .703 — and the 88-90 mph offering has a lot of people excited about maybe another jump in 2024.
OUTLOOK: With next to nothing in terms of upper-level pitching prospect depth in the organization past Ricky Tiedemann, Dallas’ 2023 campaign has positioned him as one of the better depth options the Jays could potentially turn to in the fairly near future. There’s likely to be a Triple-A adjustment period when he arrives, but his pitch backwards style has him looking like a potential back-end starter that can provide some innings.
FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP
MLB ETA: 2025
18. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown
Last year’s ranking: NA 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 third round (89th overall)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: Watts-Brown didn’t pitch after being drafted in July as the Jays decided to send him to the complex for some research work, as they tend to do with pitchers in the year they’re selected. Even though JWB is a college product out of Oklahoma State, the Jays feel there is some uncovered upside, evidenced by the above-slot bonus of $1 million they were comfortable with in the third round.
OUTLOOK: Like many of the NCAA products the Jays have drafted recently — look above at Dallas — JWB’s best pitch is a lethal slider that gets a boatload of swing-and-miss. Or at least it’s expected to when he debuts. The Jays will develop him as a starter without a doubt, but that’s no certainty at this point. He’s one of the most interesting arms to monitor this summer.
FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP
MLB ETA: 2027
17. OF Jace Bohrofen
Last year’s ranking: NA 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 sixth round (184th overall)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver
YEAR IN REVIEW: Once billed as a potential top 50 pick, Bohrofen slid to the Jays in the sixth round, before going out and mashing in the lower minors, which is exactly what an SEC product out of Arkansas is supposed to do. It came with some swing-and-miss and 24 strikeouts in 24 games isn’t great, but he offset that with seven bombs in just 97 trips to the plate.
OUTLOOK: There isn’t much guesswork with what Bohrofen would provide if things click. He’s a power-hitting corner outfielder. Case closed. If things don’t click, he’ll go the way of Will Robertson, a 2019 fourth-round pick who has struggled to put the same profile together as he’s moved up the ladder. Interestingly enough, and I’m cheating here to get his name involved, Robertson actually had a decent run to finish out 2023 thanks to some swing changes and was considered for the back end of this list once again this winter after falling off previously. But back to Bohrofen — there are many evaluators predicting a big year for the left-handed hitter, and he has a chance to lead the org in bombs when all is said and done.
FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat
MLB ETA: 2027
16. 3B/2B Cade Doughty
Last year’s ranking: 7 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 second round (78th overall)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: More was expected from the LSU product in his first full season as a pro, but that doesn’t mean it was an overly disappointing year, either. Doughty hit 18 homers, tied for fifth-most in the system, while also getting better as the season went along, batting .286 with 13 of those bombs in 59 games after June 11. He also showed a surprisingly aggressive approach, striking out 29.7 per cent of the time at High-A Vancouver with a 17 per cent whiff rate.
OUTLOOK: It’s really hard to pin this guy down, to be honest. The evaluations are all over the map on both sides of the ball and it’s truly intriguing. Some see a no-doubt third baseman with 25-plus homer power. Others see a bat-first utility guy in the right-handed hitting Cavan Biggio mould. Either way, Doughty will have to hit a whole lot as he enters the upper levels of the minors for the first time and cutting the Ks at Double-A New Hampshire is the ideal scenario, which would help provide some clarity on his future as a potential everyday player. He’s one bat I think has a chance to take a major leap and be locked into the top five here a year from now.
FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter
MLB ETA: 2026
15. 1B/OF Spencer Horwitz
Last year’s ranking: 15 2022 rank: 35
Acquired: 2019 24th round (717th overall)
2024 age: 26
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: All Horwitz does is get on base and produce, running up a .309/.424/.455 slash line across 151 games at Triple-A Buffalo the past two seasons. But like all of the Jays’ position player prospects in the upper minors, Horwitz’s profile is imperfect, as he’s limited to first base and doesn’t have the type of power typically associated with the position with just 23 homers over the past two years, including one in his big-league debut this summer. The Jays have tried him at second base and left field, to mixed reviews, but “hitter” will always be Horwitz’s best position.
OUTLOOK: After posting a .341 on-base percentage in his MLB debut, Horwitz proved the contact-and-patience oriented approach will play at the highest level and he rarely swings and misses. With a lack of power and pretty extreme platoon splits — a 1.016 OPS against righties last year, versus a .691 mark against lefties — Horwitz will have to continue getting on base at an above average clip in order to carve out a bench role on a contender. After posting a .450 on-base mark last year in 107 Triple-A games, third-best of 707 qualified minor-leaguers, that should be easy, but he’s always going to have produce and fight for at-bats with his profile.
FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat
MLB ETA: Debuted June 18, 2023
14. 1B/3B Damiano Palmegiani
Last year’s ranking: 28 2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2021 14th round (422nd overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: The Venezuelan-born, British Columbia-raised NCAA product was one of the better stories in the system last year, crushing 23 homers to finish second in the pipeline to Orelvis Martinez’s 26 bombs. Not only did the stocky infielder produce, but he also did it in Triple-A to finish out the year, slashing an impressive .284/.427/.554 with four of those homers in 20 games with the Bisons. An underrated prospect and one of the better fastball hitters in the system, Palmegiani’s breakout season has him quietly positioned as a dark horse to nudge his way into the big-league picture this year, maybe in similar fashion to Davis Schneider.
OUTLOOK: Not only does Palmegiani hit the ball hard with high-end exit velocities, but he also displays a patient approach at the plate and walked 15.6 per cent of the time in his brief Triple-A cameo. In Buffalo, Palmegiani started settling in at first base, but the Jays will keep repping him at third base in the short term. Truly, his position is “hitter”, and he might factor into the DH picture in the end. He also crushes lefties — .949 OPS and eight homers in just 133 plate appearances against them last year — so there’s the possibility of a DH/1B platoon situation with Spencer Horwitz down the road. The six-pack of upper-minors bats starting with Leo Jimenez at No. 6 through Horwitz at No. 15 will all be in Triple-A this year and it will be interesting to see who can perform well enough to earn big-league at-bats with their varying, and somewhat flawed, profiles.
FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter
MLB ETA: 2024
13. RHP Fernando Perez
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2022 IFA (Nicaragua)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: One of the most intriguing prospects in the system heading into the season, Perez went from not even in consideration for the top 50 coming off his 18-year-old DSL season to now in the top 15 with very good reports backing up the 2.72 ERA he posted last year over 49.2 complex league innings. Not only did he perform, but he also got a ton of swing-and-miss, kept the ball in the ballpark with just one bomb allowed, posted a 45.6 per cent groundball rate, while walking just 12 batters all year. All good.
OUTLOOK: The reason you may not have heard much about the Nicaraguan righty at this point is he doesn’t possess huge stuff and doesn’t have a ton of projection left. But that depends who you talk to. What Perez does is rely on elite command and a pair of solid secondaries in a curveball and a changeup that may only be scratching the surface of its potential. While the aforementioned lack of projection is the majority at this point, there are many inside the organization who think more velocity — he’s mostly 92-93 mph right now — is coming and the view of Perez could really change a year from now.
FUTURE ROLE: Mid-rotation SP
MLB ETA: 2026
12. RHP Landen Maroudis
Last year’s ranking: NA 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 fourth round (121st overall)
2024 age: 19
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League
YEAR IN REVIEW: The hardest cohort to rank coming out of a draft year is the high school arm, and Maroudis’ stock seems to be trending up behind the scenes. It’s not at the Ricky Tiedemann levels of buzz heading into the 2022 season after he transformed his body and added a ton of velo, but Maroudis’ lanky frame has oodles of projection left as a teen and the Jays have proven they’re adept at finding physical inefficiencies in draft prospects that can quickly be attacked in the weight room.
OUTLOOK: Considering the Jays anted up to almost triple the slot value — his fourth-round slot called for $547,100, but it took a cool $1.5 million to get him signed away from college — they obviously really see something in Maroudis. In addition to on-the-mound athleticism and the fact he has never truly focused on just pitching, Maroudis’ prospect stock is as volatile as it gets. He could be a no-doubt top-5er a year from now, or he could be a slow burn arm falling down into the twenties. He’s a big time breakout candidate, but that could be a year early.
FUTURE ROLE: Mid-rotation SP
MLB ETA: 2028
11. LHP Adam Macko
Last year’s ranking: 8 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: Trade from Seattle, Nov. 16, 2022 (Teoscar Hernandez)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire
YEAR IN REVIEW: It wasn’t exactly a breakout, but it was definitely a good news year for Macko, who threw a career-high 86 innings after struggling to stay on the mound previously. The stuff was much better than the 4.81 ERA from last year suggests, and the most notable aspect of the Slovakian-born lefty’s season was his three-start run to close out the year, as he completed a full five innings in each one, allowed just one total run and produced his three highest strikeout games of the year with 11, seven, and eight punch-outs in those starts, respectively.
OUTLOOK: Macko closed on a high and some believe he’s primed for a breakout if he can continue to stay healthy and the wobbly command starts to clean itself up with more reps. That being said, there’s lots of reliever risk for any pitching running a career 4.6 BB/9 in the lower minors. It’s a big year for the Vauxhall High School product as far as remaining in the rotation goes, but there’s a chance he could be a nasty multi-inning reliever, as well.
FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP
MLB ETA: 2025
10. LHP Kendry Rojas
Kendry Rojas Dunedin Blue Jays
Last year’s ranking: 35 2022 rank: 28
Acquired: 2020 IFA (Cuba)
2024 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver
YEAR IN REVIEW: The biggest breakout of the year in the system on the pitching side, Rojas not only performed well with a 3.75 ERA across 84 innings, but the converted outfielder’s stuff also continued to tick up as he matures physically. His velocity has slowly increased as he’s added strength to his lithe frame, touching 93-94 mph now with his riding fastball, allowing his secondary slider and changeup to play up and get more swing and miss.
OUTLOOK: In line to get up over 100 innings this season, 2024 could be Rojas’ true breakout if he continues to build on what he did last year. If he cruises at High-A Vancouver, the wheels could come off at Double-A as well eventually, and we’ll really know what type of ultimate upside the young lefty possesses.
FUTURE ROLE: Mid-rotation SP
MLB ETA: 2026
9. OF Alan Roden
Alan Roden Creighton
Last year’s ranking: NR 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 third round (98th overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Left off this list as player No. 51 last year — I swear, I even tweeted it — Roden went out and had the best season of the Jays’ four early picks in the 2022 draft, jumping Josh Kasevich, Tucker Toman and Cade Doughty on this list a year later. After slashing .317/.431/.459 with 10 homers across 442 at-bats, Roden is now knocking on the door of the big leagues and might be the first corner outfielder recalled if a need arises. Especially if he’s performing the same way at Triple-A after torching Double-A with a 147 wRC+ in 46 games. With more walks than strikeouts last season — he was in a very elite group with 68 free passes against 64 Ks — the plate discipline and hit tool are the calling cards. His minuscule 5.2 per cent swinging strike rate was tied for second overall in the entire system with Josh Kasevich and Ernie Clement, just behind the now-traded Vinny Capra’s 5 per cent on the dot. His peak exit velocity last year was 103.8 mph.
OUTLOOK: At the age of 24 with a great approach, Roden probably doesn’t need much more minor league time, but the final piece to the puzzle is how much power he’ll hit for. With just 11 bombs across 647 trips to the plate in his minor league career, Roden isn’t going to be mistaken for a Bash Brother anytime soon, but if he can pop 15 homers and get on base, he’ll find a home in a big league lineup. Defensively, reports are very mixed, with some seeing a plus corner outfield glove and others being more lukewarm on the athleticism. There’s also a noteworthy production drop off against same-side pitching, with the left-handed hitter posting a .960 OPS last year against righties, compared to just .712 against southpaws.
FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat
MLB ETA: 2024
8. 2B/OF Davis Schneider
Davis Schneider Toronto Blue Jays
Last year’s ranking: 33 2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2017 28th round (849th overall)
2024 age: 25
Expected starting affiliate: MLB Toronto
YEAR IN REVIEW: You’re asking how the moustachioed one goes out and sets the world on fire with a record-setting rookie performance and then is ranked just eighth on the organization’s prospect list? I get it. I totally do. And to be completely honest, I wish Schneider had been given 14 more at-bats so he hit 130 and was no longer eligible for this list. That’s how hard he is to rank. Why, you ask? Well, the first reason is the unsustainable nature of what he did with the bat as he posted a 1.008 OPS across his first 35 games and a 30.5 per cent strikeout rate that was climbing as September went on. The second aspect is the glove, which is seen as passable at second base depending on who you talk to and just fine in left field. If he’s crushing the baseball like he did at times as a rookie, he’ll be a very valuable player. But if he’s striking out too much, he’s going to turn into a role player very quickly.
OUTLOOK: Schneider was very open about the hole he was trying to close in his swing last year and it was not shocking at all to see opposing teams attack him with fastballs up in the zone once everyone figured that out. He made a lot of progress with that through his minor league journey, but sometimes you are what you are as a hitter — Brandon Belt told me he simply learned eventually to just not swing at the high heater up in the zone — and identifying and laying off pitches up will be just as important moving forward.
FUTURE ROLE: Bat-first utilityman
MLB ETA: Debuted Aug. 4, 2023
7. 3B/OF Addison Barger
Addison Barger Toronto Blue Jays
Last year’s ranking: 6 2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2018 sixth round (176th overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Coming off a breakout season in 2022, Barger’s campaign was interrupted by a right elbow injury early on that had him head to Texas for a checkup with noted physician Dr. Keith Meister, but luckily no structural damage was found, and his elite throwing arm didn’t seem to be affected much. That’s the good news. More disappointingly, Barger hit just nine homers across 88 games, down from 26 the year before. Utilizing a Cody Bellinger-type narrow stance and leg kick, Barger also started transitioning to right field in 2023, giving him a super-utility profile if he can get back to hitting for the same type of power he did in 2022.
OUTLOOK: Even though he kept it in check at 21.7 per cent at Triple-A this past year, Barger is likely to suffer through some swing-and-miss against big-league pitching at times. With the ability to play third base, second base and the outfield now, there are multiple paths to playing time with the way the Jays are currently constructed and he’ll be battling for a roster spot out of camp. Notably, the left-handed hitter also performed well against southpaw pitching during his minor-league career, giving him a shot to be an everyday player rather than just a platoon bat.
FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat
MLB ETA: 2024
6. SS/2B Leo Jimenez
Leo Jimenez Toronto Blue Jays
Last year’s ranking: 19 2022 rank: 10
Acquired: 2017 IFA (Panama)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Once you get past the top five in this system, there’s a clear tier of upper-level position player depth that provides a wide array of skills to choose from. Whether it’s Jimenez, Addison Barger, Alan Roden, Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz or Damiano Palmegiani, you could probably throw them all in a hat and order them however you want, depending on what you need and the profiles you prefer. The one thing they all have in common is they’re going to be in Triple-A — or on the big-league bench — and are all pretty ready to contribute in various ways. While he wouldn’t be the fantasy baseball choice, Jimenez gets the nod as the lead dog of this pack of bats for me, simply because he’s a capable up-the-middle defender who makes a whole lot of contact and takes walks. He got on base at a .372 clip last year in his first Double-A test, but even more impressive were the eight home runs he clubbed, which was one more than his first four pro seasons combined.
OUTLOOK: Even though he’s been on the 40-man for a couple of years and is already entering his final option year, Jimenez is still probably behind Orelvis Martinez, Schneider and Barger when it comes to battling for a job this spring. He’s also a bit redundant as long as Santiago Espinal is around, leaving Jimenez to man the shortstop spot in Buffalo on an everyday basis. There’s still big breakout potential here if Jimenez continues to show the same slow and steady power progress that he’s shown the last two years. Even if the bat ends up a little light, the glove will give him a long big-league future.
FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter
MLB ETA: 2024
5. OF Enmanuel Bonilla
Enmanuel Bonilla
Last year’s ranking: 12 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 18
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League
YEAR IN REVIEW: Signed for a whopping $4.1 million last January thanks to an impressive package of both projection and current skills, Bonilla went to the DSL and held his own, slashing .307/.407/.429 as a 17-year-old. There wasn’t a ton of game power with just three home runs and the strikeouts were a tough high at just over 24 per cent, but here’s where it gets exciting. The season line will tell you that the put-together right-handed hitter struck out 55 times, but 35 of those came in his first 102 at-bats when he was batting just .275 with one bomb. From that point forward — a span of 85 at-bats — Bonilla struck out just 20 times, walked 16 times, bashed a pair of homers and hit .345. It was clicking to finish out the summer. His max exit velocities peaked in the 105-mph range, pretty good for a 17-year-old.
OUTLOOK: After debuting at No. 12 here last year a week after he signed, I’m pushing Bonilla up into Arjun Nimmala territory because they’re by far the highest-ceiling prospects in the system and if you want to dream on the next great Blue Jays duo half a decade from now, it’s these two. Notably, there’s belief Bonilla could stick in centre field, but many believe he ends up as a middle-of-the-order right fielder with big time pop. That’s a long ways off, but the fact it’s even on the bingo card is always exciting.
FUTURE ROLE: First-division starter
MLB ETA: 2028
4. LHP Brandon Barriera
Brandon Barriera
Last year’s ranking: 2 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 first round (23rd overall)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin
YEAR IN REVIEW: Barriera’s season went a lot like Tiedemann’s as the lefty spent way too much time on the injured list due to arm issues and he accrued just 20.1 innings in his first full professional season. Barriera’s stuff was also down, as his fastball was mostly in the 92-93 mph range after being more mid-90s during his draft year. Not only that, but the lefty’s lower half also thickened considerably — there was a Robbie Ray mention at one point — and a few observers pointed to conditioning issues being a reason for the stuff backing up. All in all, not what the Jays wanted to see from their 2022 first-rounder last year.
OUTLOOK: Barriera has already shed some pounds this winter and should be much better prepared for the grind a professional pitcher endures in his second season. Two arm injuries is never a good sign, and it’s left Barriera facing a really important season early in his career as he tries to get on the right developmental track. In order to do that, he needs to stay healthy and pitch, which is sometimes easier said than done. He’s both a breakout and a bust candidate heading into 2024. It could go either way, but this ranking holds out hope it’s the former.
FUTURE ROLE: Mid-rotation SP
MLB ETA: 2027
3. SS/3B Arjun Nimmala
Arjun Nimmala Toronto Blue Jays
Last year’s ranking: NA 2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 first round (20th overall)
2024 age: 18
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League
YEAR IN REVIEW: Blessed with freaky power potential for a teenager as one of the youngest players available, Nimmala was sliding during the July draft before the Jays scooped him up at pick No. 20 and signed him for well below slot value at $3 million (slot was about $3.7 million). It’s a big time upside play by the Jays’ amateur scouting department, and you can dream on Nimmala being a big, rangy shortstop with high-end exit velocities and oodles of power. In his debut post-draft, Nimmala didn’t hit a homer, but did walk 14 times in nine games at the complex level.
OUTLOOK: As projectable as it gets, Nimmala being in the top three here speaks to both his immense upside and the lack of high-end prospect depth in the Blue Jays system. He’s their best chance at developing a star, and his full-season debut will be monitored closely by the entire industry as a fairly polarizing draft prospect last year. A hot start will have his name buzzing, while a slow one will confirm what most believe to be true today — he’s a long ways away. The highest-selected Indian-American player in draft history, the Tampa high school product’s focus will surround identifying spin and figuring out how to tap into all that raw power against professional breaking balls.
FUTURE ROLE: First-division starter
MLB ETA: 2028
2. 3B/2B Orelvis Martinez
Orelvis Martinez Toronto Blue Jays
Last year’s ranking: 3 2022 rank: 2
Acquired: 2018 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: It feels like Martinez has been around forever, but it’s easy to forget he popped onto the prospect radar super early as a bonus baby and is still just heading into his age-22 season with 11 Triple-A bombs under his belt. And that’s the name of Orelvis’ game — power. A mistake crusher from the right side, Martinez made huge strides in 2023 with his approach, simply by picking better pitches to swing at. When writing up Martinez for this list in years past, the high strikeout totals were always viewed as an approach issue rather than a swing hole, and that looked to be true this past summer as Martinez matured as a hitter. He also started playing some second base finally, giving him the much-needed 3B/2B versatility that fits the big club’s present-day needs. With 58 homers over the past two seasons, Martinez’s bat is going to carry him, and the most encouraging sign is he’s been able to make adjustments at every single level after some initial struggles.
OUTLOOK: There are many in the front office crossing fingers and hoping they get a big time breakout this season and it solves a long-term problem at either the keystone or the hot corner. If Martinez continues to hone his approach — his second go-round at a level has always been better — and continues hitting for power, then he’s eventually going to push his way into the big-league lineup. I can’t help but get Gleyber Torres vibes here, and that would likely be an outcome the Jays would gladly take.
FUTURE ROLE: First-division starter
MLB ETA: 2024
1. LHP Ricky Tiedemann
Ricky Tiedemann Dunedin Blue Jays
Last year’s ranking: 1 2022 rank: 6
Acquired: 2021 third round (91st overall)
2024 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo
YEAR IN REVIEW: Talked about as a potential midseason rotation piece in just his second professional season last spring, things did not go the young lefty’s way in 2023. Shoulder soreness slowed him during spring training before biceps inflammation shelved him in May and eventually limited the California kid to just 44 innings during the regular season. There’s a lot of good news, however. First of all, the injuries could have been worse, particularly the biceps injury that had him pointing at his arm and walking off the mound ominously during a start. The second part of the good news is he finished the season healthy, making his Triple-A debut and then shoving with electric stuff in the Arizona Fall League, setting Tiedemann up for a healthy off-season as he gears up to attempt to win a rotation spot next spring. That’s unlikely to happen, but some Triple-A polish is needed anyway considering Tiedemann still hasn’t completed more than five innings or thrown more than 84 pitches in a single start, with both coming during the 2022 season. Pitching deep into games, holding his stuff, and sequencing against more advanced hitters is the final piece to the developmental puzzle for one of the top pitching prospects in the game.
OUTLOOK: Workload will be the storyline for Tiedemann in 2024, and after missing so much time in 2023 he’s probably only got 100 or so innings in the tank as the organization plays it safe with their potential ace. That means the Jays could get creative and while it hasn’t been their M.O. to break in young arms via the bullpen, there’s a scenario where the lefty is a multi-inning weapon in the second half of the season, both as a way to limit innings and help what’s expected to be a postseason contender. If he spends the first half of the season pitching deep into games at Triple-A, then the second half in the big-league bullpen to get to 100-120 total innings, Tiedemann would then be set up to be a key part of the 2025 rotation. There’s no doubt Tiedemann is a great pitching prospect, and the stuff is filthy, but until he tops his career high of 78.2 innings in a season it’s probably best to hold your breath a bit. The Nate Pearson cautionary tale still lingers in the background, but the ace ceiling remains intact.
FUTURE ROLE: Top-of-the-rotation SP
MLB ETA: 2024