Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects of 2024: 25-1

For the sixth year in a row, we go deep into Toronto Blue Jays farm system to highlight not only the next set of potential superstars, but also the depth pieces that could help surround what the front office expects to be a championship-calibre team for at least the next two seasons.

The system has changed a lot in a half-decade.

The 2019 list was headlined by the core now in Toronto, and the way the club has used their minor-league inventory has changed significantly as the team has become a contender, as well, and it may be shifting once again.

As the aforementioned core gets closer and closer to free agency, the franchise has to start thinking about the next era, and that seems to be happening with some investments in high-risk, high-upside talent.

I’ll cut the preamble short there because there’s an obscene 12,000 words of thoughts built into the player descriptions that outline where things stand.

But first, a handful of bullet point observations:

There are a few clear tiers. Ricky Tiedemann stands alone. Then, the young, upside guys in the top five, followed by a big group of upper-level position players on the verge of contributing in the big leagues, and then a glut of risky arms. Past about 20 or so, you could argue for and shuffle just about any name in my top 40 if you really wanted to.

Lots of relievers. I considered more true relievers than ever before and, in the end, a lot of them ended up making the list. It’s a combination of two factors. In an effort to find pitching to help them win ASAP, the Jays have drafted more of them in the middle rounds. The second factor is it’s not a deep system and a lot of the lower-level breakout players I liked coming into 2023 didn’t exactly have great seasons, leaving them very hard to evaluate and more in the 51-75 range, which is littered with FCL and DSL position players and a handful of teenage arms.

It’s not a great system. Bottom-third in baseball is the easiest way to describe it in a very subjective MLB ranking.

Lastly, a new element this year is “future roles.” Out of six big-league position player roles that I believe cover every box and six pitcher roles that do the same thing, I’ve assigned one to every prospect. Obviously, the upper-level guys are more certain, while any role you see assigned to a lower-level prospect is subject to change each January when the new top 50 list drops. More on that below, including a glossary of my definitions.

After releasing names 50 through 26 on Wednesday, here are the remaining top 25. 

PREVIOUS YEARS

Here’s a quick look at how my top 50 lists have broken down in each of the past five years if you want to go back in time:

2023 // 2022 // 2021  // 2020 // 2019 

FUTURE ROLES (NEW)

POSITION PLAYERS

First-division starter: An important everyday player on a contender.
Second-division starter: An everyday player on a non-contender. Good enough to start, but you’re probably upgrading when the time comes to win.
Corner platoon bat: Doesn’t play up the middle — whether that’s infield or outfield — and will probably show some platoon splits.
Bat-first utilityman: Plays multiple positions, but he’s in the lineup for his bat. Think Cavan Biggio.
Glove-first utilityman: Plays multiple positions, but it’s the glove that counts. Think Ryan Goins.
Bench specialist: An elite defender and/or base-stealer who fits best as a 26th man on a roster. Think 2015 post-season Dalton Pompey.

PITCHERS

Top-of-the-rotation SP: Anyone in the ace discussion that you’d want starting a post-season game.
Mid-rotation SP: Good innings-eater, maybe with upside for more.
Back-end SP: Has starter traits and will get chances but may not stick long-term.
High-leverage RP: Elite 8th and 9th inning arms.
Middle RP: Single-inning relievers who aren’t quite high-leverage.
Multi-inning RP: A role that is becoming trendy across baseball as teams try to develop them is the one-time-through-the-order reliever, a hybrid version of the old swingman.

ELIGIBILITY

Pitchers: Under 50 career innings.
Hitters: Under 130 career at-bats.

TOP 50 BY POSITION

Catchers: 2
Corner infielders: 8
Middle infielders: 5
Utility guys: 5
Outfielders: 9
Pitchers: 21

HOW THEY WERE ACQUIRED

Trade: 5
MLB Draft: 27
International free agency: 18

AFFILIATE LEVELS

Triple-A East: Buffalo Bisons (AAA)
Double-A Northeast: New Hampshire Fisher-Cats (AA)
High-A West: Vancouver Canadians (A+)
Single-A Southeast: Dunedin Blue Jays (A)
Florida Complex League: FCL Blue Jays (CPX)
Dominican Summer League: DSL Blue Jays (DSL)

GRADUATED (1)

13. RHP Nate Pearson, age-26, MLB (75.2 innings)

GONE (2+5 NR)

9. RHP Sem Robberse, age-21, AA (traded to STL for Jordan Hicks)
44. RHP Adam Kloffenstein, age-22, AA (traded to STL for Jordan Hicks)
NR RHP Matt Svanson, age-24, AA (traded to STL for Paul DeJong)
NR LHP Nick Allgeyer, age-27, AAA (traded to PHI for cash)
NR 2B/OF Vinny Capra, age-26, AAA (traded to PIT for Tyler Heineman)
NR C Sammy Hernandez, age-19, A (traded to STL for Genesis Cabrera)
NR C Juan Gonzalez, age-22, A (traded to CWS for cash)

FELL OFF (14)

21—20—2B/SS Estiven Machado, age-21, A+
24—21—RHP Adrian Hernandez, age-24, AA
26—49—C Luis Meza, age-19, CPX
29—32—RHP Trent Palmer, age-25, A
30—NA—2B/C Carlos Vasquez, age-19, CPX
31—48—OF/C Zach Britton, age-25, AA
32—36—2B/3B Tanner Morris, age-26, AAA
34—14—RHP Irv Carter, age-21, A
39—NR—LHP Jimmy Robbins, age-26, AAA
41—NR—OF Robert Robertis, age-21, A
42—43—OF Yeuni Munoz, age-20, CPX
43—NR—RHP Alejandro Melean, age-23, AA
46—29—2B/SS Luis Garcia, age-20, A
49—NR—RHP Eliander Alcalde, age-20, A

HONOURABLE MENTIONS (13)

HM—26—43—C Luis Meza, age-19, CPX
HM—29—32—RHP Trent Palmer, age-25, A
HM—30—NA—2B/C Carlos Vasquez, age-19, CPX
HM—31—48—OF/C Zach Britton, age-25, AA
HM—42—43—OF Yeuni Munoz, age-20, CPX
HM—49—NR—RHP Eliander Alcalde, age-20, A
HM—NR—NA—1B Peyton Williams, age-23, A+
HM—NA—NA—2B/3B Nick Goodwin, age-22, A+
HM—NR—NR—LHP Trenton Wallace, age-25, AA
HM—NA—NA—LHP Connor O’Halloran, age-21, A
HM—NR—NA—RHP Samuel Acuna, age-18, DSL
HM—NR—NR—OF Railin Tejada, age-19, DSL
HM—NR—NR—3B/OF Aneudi Escanio, age-19, DSL

25. RHP Nolan Perry

Last year’s ranking: 39  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 12th round (368th overall)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: Perry made my breakouts piece last year, and even though he jumps 14 spots in these rankings, it wasn’t quite that. It could still be coming, however, because for a 12th-round teenager, Perry held his own. The lanky New Mexico product made four starts and got into nine games on the complex, finishing with an ugly 7.28 ERA. The holding his own part is derived from the 4.05 FIP and 11.9 K/9, as the underlying numbers looked a whole lot better than the ERA. Blame that .393 BABIP. 

OUTLOOK: With a four-pitch mix — four-seamer, slider, curve and split — and some strike-throwing qualities, Perry’s 80 or so innings this season in full season ball will be interesting to monitor. It’s probably a touch early to label him a breakout candidate once again, but incremental progress is fine, too.

FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP

MLB ETA: 2027

24. RHP Dahian Santos

Last year’s ranking: 10  2022 rank: 13
Acquired: 2019 IFA (Venezuela)
2024 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver

YEAR IN REVIEW: The 2023 season had a chance to be a big breakout year for Santos coming off a career-high 86 frames in 2022, giving him a chance to build the type of innings a potential swing-and-miss starter needs heading into the upper minors. That did not happen. Instead, his season ended with a forearm strain after 12 starts and 48.1 innings. He didn’t quite show the same strikeout stuff as he did in 2022 when he whiffed 120 batters across his 73.1 Single-A innings, but the slider is still a legit out pitch.

OUTLOOK: Listed at just 5-foot-11, 160 pounds, Santos does not have the build of a typical starting pitcher and the club has been hoping to add velocity to his 92-mph heater as he adds size. A good athlete, the Jays will continue to develop Santos in the rotation, and he seems to have dodged a bullet with the forearm and is expected to be on track for spring training. If the command doesn’t come around and the frame doesn’t hold up, Santos might be a pretty nasty one-time-through-the-order reliever with the slider alone.

FUTURE ROLE: Multi-inning RP

MLB ETA: 2026

23. RHP Connor Cooke

Last year’s ranking: NR  2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2021 10th round (302nd overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: Welcome to the list, Mr. Cooke, we’ve been waiting for you. Cooke’s velocity has been all over the map in his career, going from low-90s in college to ramping all the way up to close to triple digits at times during instructs a couple years ago to settling back into the mid-90s range. The rise on the fastball is enough to make it a swing-and-miss pitch in a couple different velocity bands, and it helps that he pairs it with an absolutely disgusting slider, or sweeper if you want to call it that. 

OUTLOOK: A reliever seems to make it into my top 25 every year, with mixed success. Whether it’s Julian Merryweather or Nate Pearson or Hagen Danner, there’s usually one common trait — elite stuff. Even though the results were mixed, and the walks jumped once he got to Triple-A, Cooke struck out a massive 80 hitters across just 44.1 frames last year and seems primed to continue that break out. He’s also a reliever, so things could go completely backwards. The one thing I do know is Cooke’s middle name is Stutzman, and that’s something.

FUTURE ROLE: High-leverage RP

MLB ETA: 2024

22. 3B/2B Tucker Toman

Last year’s ranking: 5  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 second round (77th overall)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: Pushed aggressively to full season Single-A as a teenager, it did not go well for Toman. There’s a bit of a caveat as player development folks around the game are still sort of trying to figure out where to assign raw high school talent after the minor league structure changed a few years ago and the Single-A level is much more competitive than it used to be. But that doesn’t give Toman a full pass because there were lots of great performances from teens at that level. Either way, Toman was billed as a switch-hitter with an advanced feel and some raw power. Instead, a .208/.320/.313 slash line followed and Toman whiffed more than expected. He did, however, have a palatable 86.3 mph average exit velocity in his full-season debut.

OUTLOOK: As you might expect, Toman is one of the more mixed reviews from evaluators on this list and it is easy to understand why after his debut. Some are completely out, and a few think a mini breakout is in the cards. Completely opposite ends of the spectrum. Keeping the strikeouts in check is job No. 1 for Toman to rebuild his stock this summer, and he’s likely ticketed for a return stop at Single-A. Toman’s struggles last year might make the Jays player development group think twice about pushing teens like Arjun Nimmala or Enmanuel Bonilla there to start 2024, but sometimes spring training and rosters dictate those decisions.

FUTURE ROLE: Bat-first utilityman

MLB ETA: 2027

21. SS Josh Kasevich

Last year’s ranking: 22  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 second round (60th overall)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

YEAR IN REVIEW: Kasevich has two elite traits — his contact ability in the box and his shortstop defence. The first isn’t a debate at all and the tiny 5.2 per cent swing-and-miss rate proved that in his pro debut. There are evaluators not completely sold he’s a sure-shot shortstop, but internal metrics have the Oregon product as a top-notch defender at the 6. The bat is a bit light, but his .284/.363/.365 slash line at High-A is in line with his glove-first profile.

OUTLOOK: The Jays are trying to add some punch to Kasevich’s swing, but he’s shown very little pop his entire life so it would be fairly foolish to expect that aspect of his profile to suddenly click. It’s baseball, though, so never rule anything out. The question with Kasevich seems to simply be whether he’s going to hit enough to be a bottom-of-the-order table-setter who can help turn a lineup over by getting on base, or if his lack of power leaves him in a defensive replacement, bench-type role.

FUTURE ROLE: Glove-first utilityman

MLB ETA: 2026

20. 3B/SS Alex De Jesus

Last year’s ranking: 23  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: Trade from Los Angeles, Aug. 2, 2022 (Nick Frasso)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

YEAR IN REVIEW: Acquired from the Dodgers a couple years ago in a trade that the jury is still out on, but unless De Jesus pops it’s very likely to be an ‘L’ for the Blue Jays front office as Mitch White has disappointed as a depth rotation option so far and Nick Frasso has emerged as a solid pitching prospect, albeit one with relief risk still, on the West Coast. Don’t give up on De Jesus, an athletic right-handed hitter with power, popping just yet, though. Despite playing through a shoulder injury that needed surgery late in the year, De Jesus managed to turn in a decent statistical season, including a monster June with 11 extra-base hits and a 1.003 OPS.

OUTLOOK: The shoulder may slow him to start camp, but the problem has now been rectified and there are some breakout markers here heading into his age-22 season. With over 600 plate appearances at High-A already, we’re going to learn a lot about De Jesus once he reaches Double-A. The strikeouts will have to be watched, but De Jesus doesn’t swing-and-miss at an extreme rate, so there’s hope. 

FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter

MLB ETA: 2026

19. RHP Chad Dallas

Last year’s ranking: 37  2022 rank: 30
Acquired: 2021 fourth round (121st overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: Throwing the most innings in the organization (123.1) led to the most Ks (144) and overall a pretty good season for the man known as “Cheese.” The key for the right-hander since being drafted has been developing a third pitch to go along with his nasty slider in order to neutralize lefties. After mostly ditching the changeup, Dallas debuted a cutter in 2023, which led to a lot of success as he held left-handed hitters to a .632 OPS — actually a touch better than righties at .703 — and the 88-90 mph offering has a lot of people excited about maybe another jump in 2024.

OUTLOOK: With next to nothing in terms of upper-level pitching prospect depth in the organization past Ricky Tiedemann, Dallas’ 2023 campaign has positioned him as one of the better depth options the Jays could potentially turn to in the fairly near future. There’s likely to be a Triple-A adjustment period when he arrives, but his pitch backwards style has him looking like a potential back-end starter that can provide some innings.

FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP

MLB ETA: 2025

18. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown

Last year’s ranking: NA  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 third round (89th overall)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: Watts-Brown didn’t pitch after being drafted in July as the Jays decided to send him to the complex for some research work, as they tend to do with pitchers in the year they’re selected. Even though JWB is a college product out of Oklahoma State, the Jays feel there is some uncovered upside, evidenced by the above-slot bonus of $1 million they were comfortable with in the third round. 

OUTLOOK: Like many of the NCAA products the Jays have drafted recently — look above at Dallas — JWB’s best pitch is a lethal slider that gets a boatload of swing-and-miss. Or at least it’s expected to when he debuts. The Jays will develop him as a starter without a doubt, but that’s no certainty at this point. He’s one of the most interesting arms to monitor this summer.

FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP

MLB ETA: 2027

17. OF Jace Bohrofen

Last year’s ranking: NA  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 sixth round (184th overall)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver

YEAR IN REVIEW: Once billed as a potential top 50 pick, Bohrofen slid to the Jays in the sixth round, before going out and mashing in the lower minors, which is exactly what an SEC product out of Arkansas is supposed to do. It came with some swing-and-miss and 24 strikeouts in 24 games isn’t great, but he offset that with seven bombs in just 97 trips to the plate.

OUTLOOK: There isn’t much guesswork with what Bohrofen would provide if things click. He’s a power-hitting corner outfielder. Case closed. If things don’t click, he’ll go the way of Will Robertson, a 2019 fourth-round pick who has struggled to put the same profile together as he’s moved up the ladder. Interestingly enough, and I’m cheating here to get his name involved, Robertson actually had a decent run to finish out 2023 thanks to some swing changes and was considered for the back end of this list once again this winter after falling off previously. But back to Bohrofen — there are many evaluators predicting a big year for the left-handed hitter, and he has a chance to lead the org in bombs when all is said and done. 

FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat

MLB ETA: 2027

16. 3B/2B Cade Doughty

Last year’s ranking: 7  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 second round (78th overall)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

YEAR IN REVIEW: More was expected from the LSU product in his first full season as a pro, but that doesn’t mean it was an overly disappointing year, either. Doughty hit 18 homers, tied for fifth-most in the system, while also getting better as the season went along, batting .286 with 13 of those bombs in 59 games after June 11. He also showed a surprisingly aggressive approach, striking out 29.7 per cent of the time at High-A Vancouver with a 17 per cent whiff rate.

OUTLOOK: It’s really hard to pin this guy down, to be honest. The evaluations are all over the map on both sides of the ball and it’s truly intriguing. Some see a no-doubt third baseman with 25-plus homer power. Others see a bat-first utility guy in the right-handed hitting Cavan Biggio mould. Either way, Doughty will have to hit a whole lot as he enters the upper levels of the minors for the first time and cutting the Ks at Double-A New Hampshire is the ideal scenario, which would help provide some clarity on his future as a potential everyday player. He’s one bat I think has a chance to take a major leap and be locked into the top five here a year from now.

FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter

MLB ETA: 2026

15. 1B/OF Spencer Horwitz

Last year’s ranking: 15  2022 rank: 35
Acquired: 2019 24th round (717th overall)
2024 age: 26
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: All Horwitz does is get on base and produce, running up a .309/.424/.455 slash line across 151 games at Triple-A Buffalo the past two seasons. But like all of the Jays’ position player prospects in the upper minors, Horwitz’s profile is imperfect, as he’s limited to first base and doesn’t have the type of power typically associated with the position with just 23 homers over the past two years, including one in his big-league debut this summer. The Jays have tried him at second base and left field, to mixed reviews, but “hitter” will always be Horwitz’s best position.

OUTLOOK: After posting a .341 on-base percentage in his MLB debut, Horwitz proved the contact-and-patience oriented approach will play at the highest level and he rarely swings and misses. With a lack of power and pretty extreme platoon splits — a 1.016 OPS against righties last year, versus a .691 mark against lefties — Horwitz will have to continue getting on base at an above average clip in order to carve out a bench role on a contender. After posting a .450 on-base mark last year in 107 Triple-A games, third-best of 707 qualified minor-leaguers, that should be easy, but he’s always going to have produce and fight for at-bats with his profile.

FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat

MLB ETA: Debuted June 18, 2023

14. 1B/3B Damiano Palmegiani

Last year’s ranking: 28  2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2021 14th round (422nd overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: The Venezuelan-born, British Columbia-raised NCAA product was one of the better stories in the system last year, crushing 23 homers to finish second in the pipeline to Orelvis Martinez’s 26 bombs. Not only did the stocky infielder produce, but he also did it in Triple-A to finish out the year, slashing an impressive .284/.427/.554 with four of those homers in 20 games with the Bisons. An underrated prospect and one of the better fastball hitters in the system, Palmegiani’s breakout season has him quietly positioned as a dark horse to nudge his way into the big-league picture this year, maybe in similar fashion to Davis Schneider.

OUTLOOK: Not only does Palmegiani hit the ball hard with high-end exit velocities, but he also displays a patient approach at the plate and walked 15.6 per cent of the time in his brief Triple-A cameo. In Buffalo, Palmegiani started settling in at first base, but the Jays will keep repping him at third base in the short term. Truly, his position is “hitter”, and he might factor into the DH picture in the end. He also crushes lefties — .949 OPS and eight homers in just 133 plate appearances against them last year — so there’s the possibility of a DH/1B platoon situation with Spencer Horwitz down the road. The six-pack of upper-minors bats starting with Leo Jimenez at No. 6 through Horwitz at No. 15 will all be in Triple-A this year and it will be interesting to see who can perform well enough to earn big-league at-bats with their varying, and somewhat flawed, profiles.

FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter

MLB ETA: 2024

13. RHP Fernando Perez

Last year’s ranking: NR  2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2022 IFA (Nicaragua)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: One of the most intriguing prospects in the system heading into the season, Perez went from not even in consideration for the top 50 coming off his 18-year-old DSL season to now in the top 15 with very good reports backing up the 2.72 ERA he posted last year over 49.2 complex league innings. Not only did he perform, but he also got a ton of swing-and-miss, kept the ball in the ballpark with just one bomb allowed, posted a 45.6 per cent groundball rate, while walking just 12 batters all year. All good.

OUTLOOK: The reason you may not have heard much about the Nicaraguan righty at this point is he doesn’t possess huge stuff and doesn’t have a ton of projection left. But that depends who you talk to. What Perez does is rely on elite command and a pair of solid secondaries in a curveball and a changeup that may only be scratching the surface of its potential. While the aforementioned lack of projection is the majority at this point, there are many inside the organization who think more velocity — he’s mostly 92-93 mph right now — is coming and the view of Perez could really change a year from now.

FUTURE ROLE: Mid-rotation SP

MLB ETA: 2026

12. RHP Landen Maroudis

Last year’s ranking: NA  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 fourth round (121st overall)
2024 age: 19
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

YEAR IN REVIEW: The hardest cohort to rank coming out of a draft year is the high school arm, and Maroudis’ stock seems to be trending up behind the scenes. It’s not at the Ricky Tiedemann levels of buzz heading into the 2022 season after he transformed his body and added a ton of velo, but Maroudis’ lanky frame has oodles of projection left as a teen and the Jays have proven they’re adept at finding physical inefficiencies in draft prospects that can quickly be attacked in the weight room.

OUTLOOK: Considering the Jays anted up to almost triple the slot value — his fourth-round slot called for $547,100, but it took a cool $1.5 million to get him signed away from college — they obviously really see something in Maroudis. In addition to on-the-mound athleticism and the fact he has never truly focused on just pitching, Maroudis’ prospect stock is as volatile as it gets. He could be a no-doubt top-5er a year from now, or he could be a slow burn arm falling down into the twenties. He’s a big time breakout candidate, but that could be a year early. 

FUTURE ROLE: Mid-rotation SP

MLB ETA: 2028

11. LHP Adam Macko

Last year’s ranking: 8  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: Trade from Seattle, Nov. 16, 2022 (Teoscar Hernandez)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

YEAR IN REVIEW: It wasn’t exactly a breakout, but it was definitely a good news year for Macko, who threw a career-high 86 innings after struggling to stay on the mound previously. The stuff was much better than the 4.81 ERA from last year suggests, and the most notable aspect of the Slovakian-born lefty’s season was his three-start run to close out the year, as he completed a full five innings in each one, allowed just one total run and produced his three highest strikeout games of the year with 11, seven, and eight punch-outs in those starts, respectively.

OUTLOOK: Macko closed on a high and some believe he’s primed for a breakout if he can continue to stay healthy and the wobbly command starts to clean itself up with more reps. That being said, there’s lots of reliever risk for any pitching running a career 4.6 BB/9 in the lower minors. It’s a big year for the Vauxhall High School product as far as remaining in the rotation goes, but there’s a chance he could be a nasty multi-inning reliever, as well.

FUTURE ROLE: Back-end SP

MLB ETA: 2025

10. LHP Kendry Rojas

Kendry Rojas Dunedin Blue Jays

Last year’s ranking: 35  2022 rank: 28
Acquired: 2020 IFA (Cuba)
2024 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver

YEAR IN REVIEW: The biggest breakout of the year in the system on the pitching side, Rojas not only performed well with a 3.75 ERA across 84 innings, but the converted outfielder’s stuff also continued to tick up as he matures physically. His velocity has slowly increased as he’s added strength to his lithe frame, touching 93-94 mph now with his riding fastball, allowing his secondary slider and changeup to play up and get more swing and miss.

OUTLOOK: In line to get up over 100 innings this season, 2024 could be Rojas’ true breakout if he continues to build on what he did last year. If he cruises at High-A Vancouver, the wheels could come off at Double-A as well eventually, and we’ll really know what type of ultimate upside the young lefty possesses.

FUTURE ROLE: Mid-rotation SP

MLB ETA: 2026

9. OF Alan Roden

Alan Roden Creighton

Last year’s ranking: NR  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 third round (98th overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: Left off this list as player No. 51 last year — I swear, I even tweeted it — Roden went out and had the best season of the Jays’ four early picks in the 2022 draft, jumping Josh Kasevich, Tucker Toman and Cade Doughty on this list a year later. After slashing .317/.431/.459 with 10 homers across 442 at-bats, Roden is now knocking on the door of the big leagues and might be the first corner outfielder recalled if a need arises. Especially if he’s performing the same way at Triple-A after torching Double-A with a 147 wRC+ in 46 games. With more walks than strikeouts last season — he was in a very elite group with 68 free passes against 64 Ks — the plate discipline and hit tool are the calling cards. His minuscule 5.2 per cent swinging strike rate was tied for second overall in the entire system with Josh Kasevich and Ernie Clement, just behind the now-traded Vinny Capra’s 5 per cent on the dot. His peak exit velocity last year was 103.8 mph. 

OUTLOOK: At the age of 24 with a great approach, Roden probably doesn’t need much more minor league time, but the final piece to the puzzle is how much power he’ll hit for. With just 11 bombs across 647 trips to the plate in his minor league career, Roden isn’t going to be mistaken for a Bash Brother anytime soon, but if he can pop 15 homers and get on base, he’ll find a home in a big league lineup. Defensively, reports are very mixed, with some seeing a plus corner outfield glove and others being more lukewarm on the athleticism. There’s also a noteworthy production drop off against same-side pitching, with the left-handed hitter posting a .960 OPS last year against righties, compared to just .712 against southpaws.

FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat

MLB ETA: 2024

8. 2B/OF Davis Schneider

Davis Schneider Toronto Blue Jays

Last year’s ranking: 33  2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2017 28th round (849th overall)
2024 age: 25
Expected starting affiliate: MLB Toronto

YEAR IN REVIEW: You’re asking how the moustachioed one goes out and sets the world on fire with a record-setting rookie performance and then is ranked just eighth on the organization’s prospect list? I get it. I totally do. And to be completely honest, I wish Schneider had been given 14 more at-bats so he hit 130 and was no longer eligible for this list. That’s how hard he is to rank. Why, you ask? Well, the first reason is the unsustainable nature of what he did with the bat as he posted a 1.008 OPS across his first 35 games and a 30.5 per cent strikeout rate that was climbing as September went on. The second aspect is the glove, which is seen as passable at second base depending on who you talk to and just fine in left field. If he’s crushing the baseball like he did at times as a rookie, he’ll be a very valuable player. But if he’s striking out too much, he’s going to turn into a role player very quickly.

OUTLOOK: Schneider was very open about the hole he was trying to close in his swing last year and it was not shocking at all to see opposing teams attack him with fastballs up in the zone once everyone figured that out. He made a lot of progress with that through his minor league journey, but sometimes you are what you are as a hitter — Brandon Belt told me he simply learned eventually to just not swing at the high heater up in the zone — and identifying and laying off pitches up will be just as important moving forward.

FUTURE ROLE: Bat-first utilityman

MLB ETA: Debuted Aug. 4, 2023

7. 3B/OF Addison Barger

Addison Barger Toronto Blue Jays

Last year’s ranking: 6  2022 rank: NR
Acquired: 2018 sixth round (176th overall)
2024 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: Coming off a breakout season in 2022, Barger’s campaign was interrupted by a right elbow injury early on that had him head to Texas for a checkup with noted physician Dr. Keith Meister, but luckily no structural damage was found, and his elite throwing arm didn’t seem to be affected much. That’s the good news. More disappointingly, Barger hit just nine homers across 88 games, down from 26 the year before. Utilizing a Cody Bellinger-type narrow stance and leg kick, Barger also started transitioning to right field in 2023, giving him a super-utility profile if he can get back to hitting for the same type of power he did in 2022.

OUTLOOK: Even though he kept it in check at 21.7 per cent at Triple-A this past year, Barger is likely to suffer through some swing-and-miss against big-league pitching at times. With the ability to play third base, second base and the outfield now, there are multiple paths to playing time with the way the Jays are currently constructed and he’ll be battling for a roster spot out of camp. Notably, the left-handed hitter also performed well against southpaw pitching during his minor-league career, giving him a shot to be an everyday player rather than just a platoon bat.

FUTURE ROLE: Corner platoon bat

MLB ETA: 2024

6. SS/2B Leo Jimenez

Leo Jimenez Toronto Blue Jays

Last year’s ranking: 19  2022 rank: 10
Acquired: 2017 IFA (Panama)
2024 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: Once you get past the top five in this system, there’s a clear tier of upper-level position player depth that provides a wide array of skills to choose from. Whether it’s Jimenez, Addison Barger, Alan Roden, Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz or Damiano Palmegiani, you could probably throw them all in a hat and order them however you want, depending on what you need and the profiles you prefer. The one thing they all have in common is they’re going to be in Triple-A — or on the big-league bench — and are all pretty ready to contribute in various ways. While he wouldn’t be the fantasy baseball choice, Jimenez gets the nod as the lead dog of this pack of bats for me, simply because he’s a capable up-the-middle defender who makes a whole lot of contact and takes walks. He got on base at a .372 clip last year in his first Double-A test, but even more impressive were the eight home runs he clubbed, which was one more than his first four pro seasons combined.

OUTLOOK: Even though he’s been on the 40-man for a couple of years and is already entering his final option year, Jimenez is still probably behind Orelvis Martinez, Schneider and Barger when it comes to battling for a job this spring. He’s also a bit redundant as long as Santiago Espinal is around, leaving Jimenez to man the shortstop spot in Buffalo on an everyday basis. There’s still big breakout potential here if Jimenez continues to show the same slow and steady power progress that he’s shown the last two years. Even if the bat ends up a little light, the glove will give him a long big-league future.

FUTURE ROLE: Second-division starter

MLB ETA: 2024

5. OF Enmanuel Bonilla

Enmanuel Bonilla

Last year’s ranking: 12  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 18
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

YEAR IN REVIEW: Signed for a whopping $4.1 million last January thanks to an impressive package of both projection and current skills, Bonilla went to the DSL and held his own, slashing .307/.407/.429 as a 17-year-old. There wasn’t a ton of game power with just three home runs and the strikeouts were a tough high at just over 24 per cent, but here’s where it gets exciting. The season line will tell you that the put-together right-handed hitter struck out 55 times, but 35 of those came in his first 102 at-bats when he was batting just .275 with one bomb. From that point forward — a span of 85 at-bats — Bonilla struck out just 20 times, walked 16 times, bashed a pair of homers and hit .345. It was clicking to finish out the summer. His max exit velocities peaked in the 105-mph range, pretty good for a 17-year-old.

OUTLOOK: After debuting at No. 12 here last year a week after he signed, I’m pushing Bonilla up into Arjun Nimmala territory because they’re by far the highest-ceiling prospects in the system and if you want to dream on the next great Blue Jays duo half a decade from now, it’s these two. Notably, there’s belief Bonilla could stick in centre field, but many believe he ends up as a middle-of-the-order right fielder with big time pop. That’s a long ways off, but the fact it’s even on the bingo card is always exciting.

FUTURE ROLE: First-division starter

MLB ETA: 2028

4. LHP Brandon Barriera

Brandon Barriera

Last year’s ranking: 2  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 first round (23rd overall)
2024 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: Barriera’s season went a lot like Tiedemann’s as the lefty spent way too much time on the injured list due to arm issues and he accrued just 20.1 innings in his first full professional season. Barriera’s stuff was also down, as his fastball was mostly in the 92-93 mph range after being more mid-90s during his draft year. Not only that, but the lefty’s lower half also thickened considerably — there was a Robbie Ray mention at one point — and a few observers pointed to conditioning issues being a reason for the stuff backing up. All in all, not what the Jays wanted to see from their 2022 first-rounder last year.

OUTLOOK: Barriera has already shed some pounds this winter and should be much better prepared for the grind a professional pitcher endures in his second season. Two arm injuries is never a good sign, and it’s left Barriera facing a really important season early in his career as he tries to get on the right developmental track. In order to do that, he needs to stay healthy and pitch, which is sometimes easier said than done. He’s both a breakout and a bust candidate heading into 2024. It could go either way, but this ranking holds out hope it’s the former.

FUTURE ROLE: Mid-rotation SP

MLB ETA: 2027

3. SS/3B Arjun Nimmala

Arjun Nimmala Toronto Blue Jays

Last year’s ranking: NA  2022 rank: NA
Acquired: 2023 first round (20th overall)
2024 age: 18
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

YEAR IN REVIEW: Blessed with freaky power potential for a teenager as one of the youngest players available, Nimmala was sliding during the July draft before the Jays scooped him up at pick No. 20 and signed him for well below slot value at $3 million (slot was about $3.7 million). It’s a big time upside play by the Jays’ amateur scouting department, and you can dream on Nimmala being a big, rangy shortstop with high-end exit velocities and oodles of power. In his debut post-draft, Nimmala didn’t hit a homer, but did walk 14 times in nine games at the complex level.

OUTLOOK: As projectable as it gets, Nimmala being in the top three here speaks to both his immense upside and the lack of high-end prospect depth in the Blue Jays system. He’s their best chance at developing a star, and his full-season debut will be monitored closely by the entire industry as a fairly polarizing draft prospect last year. A hot start will have his name buzzing, while a slow one will confirm what most believe to be true today — he’s a long ways away. The highest-selected Indian-American player in draft history, the Tampa high school product’s focus will surround identifying spin and figuring out how to tap into all that raw power against professional breaking balls.

FUTURE ROLE: First-division starter

MLB ETA: 2028

2. 3B/2B Orelvis Martinez

Orelvis Martinez Toronto Blue Jays

Last year’s ranking: 3  2022 rank: 2
Acquired: 2018 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2024 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: It feels like Martinez has been around forever, but it’s easy to forget he popped onto the prospect radar super early as a bonus baby and is still just heading into his age-22 season with 11 Triple-A bombs under his belt. And that’s the name of Orelvis’ game — power. A mistake crusher from the right side, Martinez made huge strides in 2023 with his approach, simply by picking better pitches to swing at. When writing up Martinez for this list in years past, the high strikeout totals were always viewed as an approach issue rather than a swing hole, and that looked to be true this past summer as Martinez matured as a hitter. He also started playing some second base finally, giving him the much-needed 3B/2B versatility that fits the big club’s present-day needs. With 58 homers over the past two seasons, Martinez’s bat is going to carry him, and the most encouraging sign is he’s been able to make adjustments at every single level after some initial struggles.

OUTLOOK: There are many in the front office crossing fingers and hoping they get a big time breakout this season and it solves a long-term problem at either the keystone or the hot corner. If Martinez continues to hone his approach — his second go-round at a level has always been better — and continues hitting for power, then he’s eventually going to push his way into the big-league lineup. I can’t help but get Gleyber Torres vibes here, and that would likely be an outcome the Jays would gladly take.

FUTURE ROLE: First-division starter

MLB ETA: 2024

1. LHP Ricky Tiedemann

Ricky Tiedemann Dunedin Blue Jays

Last year’s ranking: 1  2022 rank: 6
Acquired: 2021 third round (91st overall)
2024 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: Talked about as a potential midseason rotation piece in just his second professional season last spring, things did not go the young lefty’s way in 2023. Shoulder soreness slowed him during spring training before biceps inflammation shelved him in May and eventually limited the California kid to just 44 innings during the regular season. There’s a lot of good news, however. First of all, the injuries could have been worse, particularly the biceps injury that had him pointing at his arm and walking off the mound ominously during a start. The second part of the good news is he finished the season healthy, making his Triple-A debut and then shoving with electric stuff in the Arizona Fall League, setting Tiedemann up for a healthy off-season as he gears up to attempt to win a rotation spot next spring. That’s unlikely to happen, but some Triple-A polish is needed anyway considering Tiedemann still hasn’t completed more than five innings or thrown more than 84 pitches in a single start, with both coming during the 2022 season. Pitching deep into games, holding his stuff, and sequencing against more advanced hitters is the final piece to the developmental puzzle for one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

OUTLOOK: Workload will be the storyline for Tiedemann in 2024, and after missing so much time in 2023 he’s probably only got 100 or so innings in the tank as the organization plays it safe with their potential ace. That means the Jays could get creative and while it hasn’t been their M.O. to break in young arms via the bullpen, there’s a scenario where the lefty is a multi-inning weapon in the second half of the season, both as a way to limit innings and help what’s expected to be a postseason contender. If he spends the first half of the season pitching deep into games at Triple-A, then the second half in the big-league bullpen to get to 100-120 total innings, Tiedemann would then be set up to be a key part of the 2025 rotation. There’s no doubt Tiedemann is a great pitching prospect, and the stuff is filthy, but until he tops his career high of 78.2 innings in a season it’s probably best to hold your breath a bit. The Nate Pearson cautionary tale still lingers in the background, but the ace ceiling remains intact.

FUTURE ROLE: Top-of-the-rotation SP

MLB ETA: 2024