Blue Jays will try to retool in seller’s market

It is becoming more and more clear that the Toronto Blue Jays will be sellers at the deadline. 

The only real question left is how deep the purge will be. Here are the options: trade them all, trade just the pending free agents and any controlled underperformer, or trade the pending free agents that you don’t have interest in resigning, plus the underperformers. 

There are reports circulating that the Jays have decided to trade the pending free agents but not Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or any of the other players under control beyond this season. So, how did they come to this decision and what does this mean for the future of the Jays? 

In order to determine which players to trade, a general manager needs to identify what the expectations are for next season. If the organization wants a total rebuild, they will trade any and all players who are two years or fewer away from free agency. 

Let’s make this real. If the Blue Jays were going to totally rebuild and tear things apart, then they would be open to trading every veteran player. It would start with the pending free agents (Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards and Justin Turner) but it wouldn’t stop there. It would mean that Guerrero, Bichette, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassett, Jose Berrios, Daulton Varsho, Jordan Romano, Chad Green and Genesis Cabrera would all be available as well. If a player will be a free agent before the club is projected to be ready to win again, they might as well be traded. 

The question that keeps getting asked is whether the Jays should trade Guerrero and Bichette. If the answer is yes, then the Jays should trade everyone. They are already a team that doesn’t score enough. If they trade their two stars, they will have even less offence to support the pitching, so they might as well trade everyone and start over. 

If a team is planning to compete the next season and is just going to retool and go for it again, they should keep their controllable impact veterans and just trade away the pending free agents and veteran underperformers (if possible). 

The reports indicate the Blue Jays decided they aren’t giving up on next season. That means they have likely decided to keep Guerrero and Bichette, and the controllable talent, but they are willing to trade Kikuchi, Jansen, Kiermaier, Turner, Garcia and Richards. Of course, if there is a deal for George Springer where they can get out from under a significant portion of his money, they have to make it.

A nuance to the above strategy is to keep the free agents you want to bring back the next season if you believe that trading them would hurt your chances of bringing them back. For instance, if the Jays want to bring Yusei Kikuchi back in 2025, they could decide not to trade him at the deadline. Some players are more sensitive than others, and if they thought trading the lefty would sour him and hurt their chances of bringing him back, they may opt not to hold onto him.

Usually, a club can tell a player that they are trading him but that they have strong interest in bringing him back. Players usually understand that a club can get prospects if they trade them and then play with those prospects, if they re-sign with the team in the off-season. 

A market for sellers

It appears that this will be a sellers’ market. There will be a lot more demand for players than supply available.

There are currently 23 teams within six games of a playoff spot. Because the two teams in the World Series last year were wild-card teams, every owner will want their clubs to try to get into the playoffs and then hope to get hot.

The seller’s market will help the Jays maximize the return for the players they make available. The seller’s market however has no impact on which players the Jays will make available. There may be a team or two that look at the math of being five or six games out of a playoff spot, with six teams in front of them, while also factoring in the value of being a seller in this market, and decide to sell instead of buy. 

There may be sellers, who also consider buying. This is a category that may fit the Blue Jays. They can sell (trade) their pending free agents and buy players who can be controlled for next season and beyond. That would reflect the actions of a team punting on this season but looking to retool for next season.

The Jays could look to acquire outfielders like Jazz Chisholm (Marlins) and Taylor Ward (Angels) who each have two years of control remaining after this season. Also, Rockies’ third baseman Ryan McMahon might be moved, and he would fit the Jays as he is signed through 2027. 

Spitting Seeds

- The Philadelphia Phillies just swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in a series that was billed as a potential playoff preview. Sometimes it is not who you play, but when you play them.  This was a good time for the Phillies to play the Dodgers.

Los Angeles is having serious issues with their starting rotation. Clayton Kershaw is still rehabbing his off-season surgery, Walker Buehler (hip) is on the injured list, as is Yoshinobu Yamamoto (shoulder), Tyler Glasnow (back), Dustin May (elbow), Tony Gonsolin (elbow). The Dodgers will get healthier as the season progresses but there is no guarantee how effective pitchers will be when they are activated. Bobby Miller is proof of that. He was just sent to the minor leagues as he has been ineffective since his return from the IL. The Dodgers will be major players in the starting pitching trade market. 

The Phillies are seeking a centre fielder in the trade market. Their primary focus is Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox. Centre field is really the only major need the Phillies have. They have overcome injuries to Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh and J.T. Realmuto. The Phillies are as well-rounded as any team in baseball.

- The AL West is up for grabs. The Mariners’ lead in the division has shrunk to just two games over the Houston Astros. The Astros have found their footing and are playing like the team that has appeared in seven straight ALCS series. The defending World Series champions, Texas Rangers, have started to bounce back as well. I believe that the Astros and Rangers will make the playoffs and the Mariners won’t. Seattle’s lineup produces too many strikeouts and just doesn’t produce enough runs to support their great pitching.

- There were a number of teams that were hoping that Mets’ first baseman Pete Alonso would be available at the trade deadline. The Mets have fought their way back into a playoff position after a slow start to the season. Alonso isn’t going anywhere now, and the Mets are now buyers and not sellers.