Guerrero is as good as gone

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s self-imposed deadline came and went without a contract extension, which means the slugging first baseman will leave Toronto after this season.

When a player gives a negotiating deadline, he means it. There will be no more contract talks with the Blue Jays until Guerrero hits free agency. At that point, they will be one of 30 teams with a chance to sign him.

But the reality is the Blue Jays will not re-sign him. Guerrero made it clear on Tuesday that his camp and the Jays were not close in their negotiations. If they weren’t close now, they won’t be close in November.

Supply and demand affects the price of players. It’s economics 101. Guerrero will be the best hitter available in the market, and the demand will go from just the Jays to as many as 12 teams with a real chance to sign him. He is one of one in the supply chain and the demand will be profound. The price will only go up.

It’s unclear how much Guerrero was ultimately seeking. The Jays may have balked at a completely unrealistic ask by Guerrero’s camp. We just don’t know. So, it may not have been a mistake for the team to have walked away from the deal at this point.

But I believe there was a miscalculation. I have said all along that the Jays should have made Guerrero their top priority this off-season. They should have made every attempt to sign him in November, understanding that the longer you wait the higher the price will creep. Instead they chose to pursue Juan Soto.

The Jays had little chance to sign Soto, since the Mets and Yankees were competing for him in what was always going to turn into a showdown between two owners who needed to prove to their fanbases that they are the most powerful in New York. The Jays weren’t going to be able to compete with that. But they made the pursuit of Soto a priority, which risked alienating Guerrero by making him feel like a second choice. More importantly, it delayed the Blue Jays’ negotiations with their own star and tied his value to Soto’s contractual outcome.

If the Jays had made Guerrero a priority, they would not have been stuck riding the coattails of Soto’s $765 million deal with the Mets. Everything changed once Soto signed. A deal that could be made with Guerrero in November was no longer available in February. That’s where Toronto’s front office went wrong and that is why Guerrero is now empowered to test the market.

The Jays have been chasing the Guerrero deal for a couple of years. Every time they engaged with Guerrero’s agent, the asking price has been too high. But each subsequent time they engaged the price that was asked for in the previous negotiation didn’t sound so bad.

Deals like this are not done by the general manager or even the team president. Sure, they may be the people at the table negotiating, but these are organizational decisions that are made by the owner. Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro are not the ones determining where the line is drawn in the sand for the Jays. Ownership is saying when to stop.

It can be frustrating for the owner though when the baseball people project a player’s value and then the price goes up several times. That can happen for a multitude of legitimate reasons, but it makes the owner wonder if the baseball people know what they are doing. Then there are times when owners give the front office just enough money to come in second on every player. It makes them look like they’re trying, but they never assume any risk and they never get the players. The front office then takes the hit unfairly.

Negative vibes in Dunedin?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hector Lebron Toronto Blue Jays

The news about Guerrero had to hit Jays camp like a ton of bricks. It had to suck the air out of the clubhouse.

A negative vibe had to overwhelm the first day of the full roster in camp. It’s going to take some work by John Schneider and his staff and the player leaders to change the energy. It feels like the Jays suffered a devastating loss even before playing their first game.   

If handled properly, there can be a really aggressive energy that can be nurtured. I generally like having some players on the club in the final year of their contracts. It creates a sense of urgency and motivation for performance. They are playing to get paid. Some players are motivated by it and some can be paralyzed by overtrying.

My sense is guys like Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer will be impacted positively. I do worry that Daulton Varsho could get caught up in trying to do too much.   

The Jays have a chance to compete for a playoff spot this season. I think the Yankees and Red Sox are the class of the AL East, but I see the Jays in the same range as the Orioles and Rays. There is no dominant team in the American League this year.

It does feel like Toronto is one bat short, even with the addition of Anthony Santander and an expected bounce-back season from Bichette. The margin for error is slim for the Jays. Guerrero needs to have an MVP-calibre season while Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, and George Springer need to be more productive. Their starting pitchers are going to have to be among the best in the American League, and the remade bullpen is going to have to be significantly better than last season. All of that is feasible, but regression in areas is possible as well.

If the Jays are not within a few games of a playoff spot at the trade deadline, I fully expect them to be sellers. That means trading all players on expiring contracts, including Guerrero, Bichette, Varsho, Bassitt, Scherzer and Chad Green.

That could bring back a nice haul of talent for the major-league team or into the farm system. It would also free up over $100 million in payroll for the 2026 season. This would put the Jays in an interesting position for a quick retooling, with money to spend and prospects to slot in on the roster or trade to fill holes. 

So, all is not lost. Yes, the Jays will lose their identity in 2026 as the Vladdy era comes to a close. The team will have to create a new relationship with the fans and it will clearly not be of the homegrown variety.

But if they are able to find a way to spin 2026 into a winning team, the fans will engage again.