Blue Jays 'not close' on contract with Guerrero Jr., time to consider selling off, says Olney

With reports circulating that the Toronto Blue Jays are not close to a contract extension with superstar first baseman and pending free agent Vladimir Guerrero Jr., ESPN's Buster Olney says it's time for the team to seriously consider making some difficult choices.

The Blue Jays made a strong push to sign the top free agent of this off-season, Juan Soto, that ultimately came up short.

Given that disappointment, and the current state of the team, Olney, who joined First Up on TSN1050 Wednesday morning, insists that the Blue Jays should strongly consider preparing to turn over the roster.

Olney confirmed that he's heard the two sides are not close to a contract extension, though he did not confirm the accuracy of USA Today's Bob Nightengale's report that the sides are $100 million apart in asking price.

"I just know that the Blue Jays are not close and [Guerrero Jr.] wants a lot more than what they're offering," Olney said.

"It's because of that, and what happened with Soto and some other free agents - among the teams that are trying to get better in 2025, I can say the Blue Jays are having the worst offseason of any of them."

Toronto is coming off a 74-88 finish, their worst since 2019 and a winning percentage (.457) they've failed to match in only 10 of their 48 seasons.

"It's been a total disaster. They can't get people to take their money, including their own players, and that's a problem," Olney said.

Guerrero Jr., 25, is possibly the most impactful homegrown talent produced by the Blue Jays in the 21st century since he was signed as an international free agent in 2016.

The son of MLB Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero hit .323 - second in the American League - with 30 home runs and 103 runs batted in across 159 games last season, and finished sixth in AL Most Valuable Player voting.

"I do think that where they are now, if those numbers are right, that Guerrero Jr.'s camp is looking for something closer to $450 million than $350 million, I do think in some ways it should be freeing for the Blue Jays to pivot to a sell-off and say 'Look, we understand, we would like to compete in 2025, that looks like it's going to be difficult, so maybe our mindset should be that we are looking to turn over this roster, put the team in a much better position for the future," Olney said.

"You hear them connected with guys like outfielder Anthony Santander and third baseman Alex Bregman, who are good players, but if you can't sign Guerrero Jr., and you don't have your anchor piece, then where will you be at the end of the season? In this moment, what makes the most sense for them is preparing to turn over the roster, whether it's this offseason or during this season, and not take on other contracts," Olney said.

Olney also notes the shift that is occurring in baseball the last two off-seasons, and how that can potentially negatively affect the Blue Jays in this particular negotiation.

After now-Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani broke the MLB contract record last winter and now-New York Mets slugger Soto set a new record in December with his $765 million deal, Olney thinks players may start to ask for more money than they're worth.

"I had a general manager say to me recently that [the Ohtani and Soto deals have] normalized the conversation around $400 million contracts, that players can expect that. There are not teams out there pitching $400 million contracts, those deals are not
around the corner," Olney said. 

"The only guy that had one before last winter was outfielder Mike Trout. And the idea that Guerrero Jr. is going to get one of those deals from some other team - I don't see it. If the Blue Jays' choice is between overpaying Guerrero Jr. significantly relative to his position or not, I think they could make a really bad decision there."

One other wrinkle to the idea of selling roster pieces in order to build up the farm system is the potential pressure from ownership to compete after spending a lot of money on ongoing stadium renovations.

"I don't know the financial numbers behind the stadium renovations they did, or the pressure they have to sell tickets," said Olney. "Having a conversation about selling off a foundational piece in the winter time is not going to help ticket sales, but if you feel like he's going to go into free agency, then the team might set a deadline to cut off negotiations."

The roster is set to undergo significant turnover by the end of the 2026 campaign either way, lending more credence to the idea that this would be an ideal time to sell aging pieces in trades.

Guerrero Jr. is joined by shortstop Bo Bichette and veteran pitcher Chris Bassitt on deals that expire following the 2025 season. Veteran pitchers Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios both have the potential to leave the team after 2026 when Gausman's contract ends and Berrios is faced with an option in his deal.

"If you want to offset the lost ticket sales from trading a player like Guerrero Jr., you can cut payroll," Olney said. "You're probably not going to compete with the New York Yankees, who are going to be really good after pivoting away from Soto, the Boston Red Sox are getting better, the Baltimore Orioles have a great core of young hitters. It's going to be tough to compete in 2025, you need to better set yourself up for the future."