Blue Jays prospects who could break out in 2023

TORONTO — Before we get into the potential 2023 breakout players in the Toronto Blue Jays system, let’s rewind a year.

On last year’s list, seven players were identified, and three of them broke out in a major way.

Ricky Tiedemann, No. 6 on last year’s list, was the biggest riser, going from third-round JUCO pick to a consensus top 50 prospect in all of baseball and the clear No. 1 player in this system once Gabriel Moreno was traded away.

Outfielder Gabriel Martinez and first baseman Spencer Horwitz also broke out with the bat, one in the lower levels and one in the upper minors, respectively.

Martinez shot up from No. 41 last year to No. 11 this year, while Horwitz’s rise was similar, going from No. 35 to No. 15 and landing a spot on the big club's 40-man roster this winter.

On the other side of things, right-hander Chad Dallas struggled with command issues in High-A and will likely have to repeat the level.

No. 4 prospect Jordan Groshans, the highest-ranked potential breakout last year, was traded away in the deal that netted the Jays some bullpen help in Anthony Bass and Zach Pop. Prior to being dealt, Groshans was still struggling to tap into the power needed to meet the offensive bar at third base, but he performed well once joining the Marlins organization.

Young infielders Leo Jimenez and Estiven Machado had mostly solid seasons and kept their stock neutral, but both are viewed as potential breakout candidates once again this year.

So, if you’re counting at home, that’s three Ws, two Ls and two players holding steady.

This year, mostly thanks to the lack of depth and sure things in the system, 11 names popped as breakout candidates — many of these are chosen by the contacts I talk to for this project — and they come from all areas of the top 50.

Go here to read the full player profiles, but here’s a reason why each of these prospects could break out in 2023.

2. LHP Brandon Barriera

Brandon Barriera

Last year’s rank: NA  2021 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 first round (23rd overall)
2023 age: 19
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: You only have to look at what Tiedemann did last year to see the blueprint for Barriera’s potential success in 2023. Barriera’s repertoire is actually viewed as a touch more advanced than Tiedemann’s was last winter, but that doesn’t guarantee the same type of statistical success and meteoric rise. Baseball is still very hard. Since being drafted in July, though, the lefty that’s listed at 6-foot-2, 180 pounds has added significant bulk and strength to his lower half and may look a lot different as pro than he did as an amateur. As my excellent producer Mike Kasinski at TSN pointed out, it’s a bit strange to be No. 2 in the system already and still be able to break out, but the ranking is a bet on projection and upside as he awaits his first professional pitch.

5. 3B/2B Tucker Toman

Last year’s rank: NA  2021 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 second round (77th overall)
2023 age: 19
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: When a player is described as a baseball rat who has to be told to go home and take some time away from the sport to rest, you bet on those types. It also doesn’t hurt that Toman is a switch-hitter who put up a .391 on-base percentage in his first 11 pro games last summer after signing, showing he may be ready for a more advanced test than most 19-year-olds. 

7. 3B/2B Cade Doughty

Last year’s rank: NA  2021 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 second round (78th overall)
2023 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: After hitting six homers in 26 games and posting a .223 isolated slugging mark in his debut, Doughty may have answered some of the questions about his pop already. A college bat is supposed to produce at Single-A so this year — hopefully split between High-A and Double-A if things go as planned — is going to uncover a lot more about the LSU product. While some of the outside reviews are mixed, the Jays believe Doughty is an everyday third baseman with the power to carry the positional bar.

8. LHP Adam Macko

Adam Macko

Last year’s rank: NA  2021 rank: NA
Acquired: Trade from Seattle (November 2022)
2023 age: 22
Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: Macko has been a breakout candidate in the Mariners system for a couple of years now, but health has held him back. Expected to be fully healthy coming into 2023 after pitching in the Arizona Fall League, staying on the mound is the first key for the Alberta lefty, while showing tightened up command of his mid-90s heater and high-spin hook is step No. 2. If both of those happen, the Teoscar Hernandez trade will look a whole lot different very quickly for some.

9. RHP Sem Robberse

Last year’s rank: 7  2021 rank: 24
Acquired: 2019 IFA (Netherlands)
2023 age: 21
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: Armed with good command and a really good idea of what he wants to do on the mound, the Dutch righty is a velocity jump away from being viewed as sure-shot mid-rotation starter rather than the back-end type he’s viewed as right now with a low-90s fastball. Gaining weight in order to add some more power was the focus this off-season and that has apparently gone well, leading some to believe his 91-mph fastball could gain a couple of ticks and more consistently land in the 92-95-mph range.

18. OF/INF Adrian Pinto

Last year’s rank: NA  2021 rank: NA
Acquired: Trade from Colorado (March 2022)
2023 age: 20
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: Pinto is an energy guy who plays with his hair on fire, shows good zone awareness in the box, and has elite speed. That’s a dangerous combination, and it’s before you even factor in a strong throwing arm and positional versatility that could allow him to dabble at all three spots up the middle — shortstop, second base and centre field. The Randal Grichuk/Raimel Tapia trade could eventually be known as the Adrian Pinto trade if he builds off an age-19 season that saw him post a 119 wRC+ even as he battled injuries.

20. SS/2B Manuel Beltre

Manuel Beltre Toronto Blue Jays

Last year’s rank: 11  2021 rank: 25
Acquired: 2021 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2023 age: 19
Expected starting affiliate: Single-A Dunedin

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: Handed $2.35 million to sign two years ago, Beltre is a high-IQ baseball player whose tools don’t exactly stand out. After a quiet year in the complex league that had scouts concerned about low exit velocities and a lack of pop, Beltre turned it on in a five-game full season debut, slashing .381/.409/.571 and hitting a bomb to match his total from 49 FCL games. If he adds the needed strength to show a bit more juice with the bat, Beltre is the type who could play up to his level of competition as he moves up the ladder.

28. 1B/3B Damiano Palmegiani

Last year’s rank: NR  2021 rank: NA
Acquired: 2021 14th round (422nd overall)
2023 age: 23
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: As a bat-first player who likely ends up at first base long-term, Palmegiani simply needs to rake at every level and he did well in that regard in 2022, slashing .239/.342/.473 with 24 homers across two levels. With the ability to take work a walk and relatively low swing-and-miss for his power, Palmegiani is never going to be a high-average hitter, but he could hit .220 with 25 bombs from the right side if he maxes out. A product of Alberta’s Vauxhall Academy like Adam Macko above, Palmegiani’s road to get here has been a winding one already as five summers ago he was playing in the Western Major Baseball League with the Lethbridge Bulls. I wrote stories on that collegiate summer league more than a decade ago so shout out to the WMBL and the Okotoks Dawgs, as well.

30. C Carlos Vasquez

Last year’s rank: NR  2021 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 IFA (Venezuela)
2023 age: 18
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: Every year there are players I’ve never heard of who come up early the process and slowly work their way up the list as the conversations ensue. I recall the same thing happening a few years ago when Gabriel Moreno crept onto the list in the 40s after his rookie-ball debut. Vasquez is definitely that guy this year, as I had no idea who the tiny 17-year-old catcher — he doesn’t turn 18 until June — was until sometime in late November. Similar to a teenaged Moreno, Vasquez drew attention for his bat-to-ball skills from the left side of the box and his athleticism behind the plate.

31. OF/C Zach Britton

Zach Britton Dunedin Blue Jays

Last year’s rank: 48  2021 rank: 48
Acquired: 2020 fifth round (136th overall)
2023 age: 24
Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: Britton destroyed the Arizona Fall League with a 1.057 OPS across 14 games, walking as much as he struck out. That came on the heels of a solid campaign that saw him post a .381 on-base percentage across two levels, including three home runs in 19 games once he got to Double-A, leading many to believe he could enjoy a big statistical season inside a home ballpark that’s produced a ton of breakouts for left-handed hitters over the years. Seen as more of an emergency type third catcher, Britton could also be helped by dropping backstop duties and focusing on the outfield, where he played exclusively in the AFL.

39. RHP Nolan Perry

Last year’s rank: NA  2021 rank: NA
Acquired: 2022 12th round (368th overall)
2023 age: 19
Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

WHY HE COULD BREAK OUT: The lowest-ranked prospect on this breakout list, the Blue Jays think they’ve found something in this 12th-round right-hander out of New Mexico after he showed up with a more-advanced-than-expected way of going about his work in bullpen settings. He hasn’t thrown a professional pitch yet so who knows how this is going to go for Perry off the hop, but he’s a name to monitor in 2023, even if his true breakout may be a couple years away. He’s a projectable ball of clay at this point.