TSN's Top 75 MLB Free Agents of 2024
Published
For the seventh year in a row, TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips and TSN Blue Jays Reporter Scott Mitchell have combined efforts to evaluate and rank the top names available on the free-agent market, this year running 75 players deep.
MLB Free Agent Tracker
MLB Trade Tracker
**Denotes qualifying offer, set this season at $21.05 million.
1—OF Juan Soto, NYY, age-26***
Juan Soto New York Yankees
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 1
MITCHELL: 1
2024 fWAR: 8.1
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Juan Soto delivers some of the best at-bats of any hitter in the game. He never gives up an at-bat. In fact, he never gives up a pitch. He is a game-changing offensive player. He has the best plate discipline in the major leagues. He has power and great bat-to-ball contact skills. Despite being a finalist as a Gold Glover in right field, advanced stats say he is a below average defender. Soto had a monster season with the Yankees in 2024 that helped them get to the World Series. Scott Boras is his agent and he will be looking to set a record with Soto’s contract. Soto turned down $440 million from the Washington Nationals in 2022, which was a bold and risky decision. It looks like it was a good one when he surpasses that this off-season. The Yankees and Mets are the leading candidates to land Soto, who will likely take the biggest offer he gets. The Phillies, Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants and Dodgers have all been linked with interest as well. I only see the Giants and Dodgers as legitimate competition to the Mets and Yankees.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Mets sign Soto to a record-setting 14-year deal for $701 million with deferrals which take his AAV below Ohtani despite the record setting total.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: For the second year in a row there’s a generational talent atop the free agent board, and even though Soto isn’t a two-way star like Ohtani, his age and elite hitting ability in every facet might get him close to The Unicorn’s $700 million in the end. At that price tag, he better make your team a whole lot better and luckily that’s what Soto does as one of the best hitters in the game. He fits every single team in baseball, even teams as loaded as the World Champion Dodgers. The Blue Jays dabbled in the Soto trade market last winter, and they’re expected to be a suitor now that he’s a free agent. It might play out very similarly to Ohtani a year ago — minus the fake plane ride, hopefully — which is to say the Jays will be on the periphery, and ultimately lose out in the end. There’s no questioning the fit and how scary the Soto/Vladdy pairing could be.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: 769 career walks, 696 career strikeouts. Simply amazing.
2—SP Roki Sasaki, JPN, age-23
Roki Sasaki
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 3
MITCHELL: 2
2024 fWAR: N/A
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Roki Sasaki is the most dominant talent available in free agency. He is young and overpowering on the mound. He has a fastball over 100 mph and a wicked split-finger fastball that drops off the table. His Japanese team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, have surprisingly decided to post him this winter. In doing so, the team and player will receive far less money than they would if they waited two more years. MLB international signing rules only allow players under the age of 25 to be signed to minor league deals and to be paid out of the international signing bonus pool money. The team that signs Sasaki will have six major league seasons of control over him while he is only able to make near the minimum salary for three seasons before being arbitration eligible. Every team in the game will have interest in Sasaki and the money to sign him. His case is similar to Ohtani’s when he was posted and signed with the Angels over seven years ago. Sasaki has retained Joel Wolfe of the Wasserman agency who also represents Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD), Yu Darvish (TEX/SD), Kodai Senga (NYM) and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: Sasaki signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who provide the comfort of fellow Japanese stars Ohtani and Yamamoto, plus a chance to win every year.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: The latest Japanese phenom to want to test his mettle against MLB competition, the young righty is as exciting as it gets from a number of perspectives. The decision by Chiba to post Sasaki was mostly driven by Sasaki himself. He wanted to cross the Pacific as soon as possible, a la Ohtani, rather than wait like Yoshi Yamamoto did last year to be a true free agent and hit an enormous payday right away. As we saw with Ohtani’s decision subjecting him to bonus pool limits in the winter of 2017, the money will be there eventually if the ceiling is fulfilled, and Sasaki is a pretty good bet. Like every team in baseball, the Jays have scouted Sasaki and his 100 mph heater extensively over the years and they’re ready to make their pitch. Rumours already have Sasaki eyeing the Dodgers for obvious reasons, but there’s also buzz that he prefers a smaller market away from the spotlight. Health permitting, he’s likely to be worth every penny and whatever promises need to be made.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Sasaki threw 26 of 29 pitches faster than 100 mph at the 2023 WBC.
3—SP Corbin Burnes, BAL, age-30***
Corbin Burnes Baltimore Orioles
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 2
MITCHELL: 3
2024 fWAR: 3.7
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Corbin Burnes is a legitimate number one starter. He is an innings eater and a stopper. He is a big game pitcher with dominating stuff. His strikeout numbers have dropped each of the last couple of years but the underlying numbers have remained consistently elite. He has tried to be more efficient and go deeper in games which explains some of the reduction in the swing and miss. He keeps the ball in the ballpark. He is a tough competitor. This is his chance for the big payday, which is not something the Orioles have been comfortable in handing out under the previous ownership. New owner David Rubenstein and general manager Mike Elias have a big decision to make. All of the large market teams will be in on Burnes.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Orioles pony up the money and retain Burnes with a seven-year, $217-million contract.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: Burnes took a tiny step back from his Cy Young ceiling in 2024, but his season was still pretty darn good in the AL East with a 2.92 ERA across 32 starts. The strikeouts have dropped for three straight seasons now, but the quality of the stuff is still there, as is a track record of health, leaving Burnes as the clear-cut top non-Sasaki starter on the board for me. Only eight free-agent pitchers have reached the $200 million guaranteed mark, but Burnes will be trying to make that nine this winter. While it’s much more likely the Jays would target a Max Fried or even a Shane Bieber than get into a bidding war for Burnes when it’s not their greatest need, there’s no arguing he’d give them one of the safest rotations in baseball alongside Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Burnes’ cutter averaged 95.3 mph, a career high.
4—SP Blake Snell, SF, age-32
Blake Snell San Francisco Giants
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 4
MITCHELL: 5
2024 fWAR: 3.1
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Blake Snell was a free agent after his Cy Young award-winning 2023 season, but the market wasn’t what he expected. He has had so many peaks and valleys in his career that no team wanted to commit the number of years that Snell and his agent, Scott Boras, had hoped. He finally signed in late March with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year $62 million contract that included an opt-out after the first season. Snell exercised that opt-out. He got off to a very slow start in 2024 because he missed all of spring training. Then he missed some time during the season with a groin strain. Once he returned, he pitched much better and looked like his Cy Young self. His strikeout rates were elite. All of the large market teams looking for pitching will consider Snell. The biggest question is how many years will a club be comfortable giving him at the age of 32 with inconsistencies throughout his career.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Giants, led by new team president and former star player Buster Posey, will sign Snell to a five-year, $150 million contract.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: Thanks to Boras, Snell’s market was a wild ride to monitor last winter. Luckily for Snell, after starting slow, he was dominant when he was on the mound, making 20 starts with a 3.12 ERA and racking up 145 punch-outs across 104 innings. That should get Snell really paid this time around, but it seemed that way a year ago, as well. There are some durability and consistency concerns to navigate with the lefty, but there’s also a track record of lights-out performances that should override things this year. He’s likely to get the nine figures he seeks this time around.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Snell struck out 34.7 per cent of the hitters he faced in 2024, second only to Garrett Crochet’s 35.1 per cent mark amongst starters with more than 100 innings.
5—1B Pete Alonso, NYM, age-30***
New York Mets
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 5
MITCHELL: 6
2024 fWAR: 2.1
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Pete Alonso is one of the best right-handed power bats in the game. He is a more than adequate first baseman. He is a bit quirky but not in a negative way in the clubhouse and dugout. He is a run-producer with a flare for the dramatic. The pressure of his walk-year seemed to wear on him a bit but he has a nose for driving in runs. His 162-game average is 43 home runs and 112 RBI. He posts and stays on the field, playing every game this past season. Alonso and the Mets could never come to an agreement on his value. The Mets have looked at him more in the range of Braves first baseman Matt Olson (eight years/$168 million) and Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (six years/$162 million) while Alonso believes he is more like the Yankees slugger Aaron Judge (nine years/$360 million). The Mets have wanted to re-sign Alonso and are letting him go to free agency to see what his value is in the market. The risk for Alonso is the Mets may spend their money elsewhere. Either way he will get paid. He is the fallback for the Yankees if they lose Juan Soto.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Yankees sign Alonso to a six-year, $165 million deal.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: The sexiness of Alonso this winter is going to depend on how you feel about one-dimensional thumping first basemen in general. If you’re into Alonso, you’re hoping for 40 homers from the cleanup spot and a ton of runs driven in, which isn’t exactly an analytical profile these days. If it was 15 years ago, Alonso would be getting PAID with a capital P, Prince Fielder-style. It’s going to be intriguing where Alonso’s market goes and which teams are in because it’s one of the easier spots to find production these days, so Alonso has to continue to be elite in the power department for any contract to look good a couple years from now. For Blue Jays fans, they won’t have to care about this one because there’s only one focus for this franchise at first base, leaving no room for another big ticket 1B/DH type.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Alonso’s 157 homers over the last four seasons lead all MLB first basemen. Guerrero Jr. sits third with 136.
6—SP Max Fried, ATL, age-31***
Atlanta Braves
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 8
MITCHELL: 4
2024 fWAR: 3.4
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Max Fried is a No. 1 starter, but he is not a workhorse. He has never reached 190 innings in a season. He misses time here and there. He isn’t overpowering, but he has great pitch-ability. He can hit his spots and move the ball around, keeping hitters off balance. We know that wins are a by-product of the entire team but he has certainly done his part to earn a 73-36 career record with a 3.07 ERA. His health history is a bit troubling, possibly compounded by his physical presence. The Braves have extended many of their young talents but have not chosen to do so with Fried. It doesn’t appear that the Braves are pursuing him aggressively in free agency either, which is a statement to other teams. Fried is getting plenty of interest from the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Rangers, Mets, and Phillies.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Dodgers sign Fried to a five-year, $135 million deal as he is from L.A. and could fit nicely into the Dodgers’ plan of using six to eight starters during a season where everyone gets 26-28 starts.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: Without a Cy Young on his mantle and sporting the least sexy K rates of the top tier, Fried is the boring option when it comes to the high-end starting pitchers. That doesn’t mean he’s going to come cheap, however. Maybe the complete opposite, as Fried’s perceived stability could get contenders into a bit of a bidding war in the end. The career ERA sits at 3.07, with the biggest spike coming way back in Fried’s first full season in 2019 with a 4.02 mark. Turning 31 in January, Fried reminds me a little bit of Zack Wheeler’s resume back in 2019 when he signed a five-year, $118-million deal with the idea that the best was yet to come — and that has been accurate. With Gausman and Bassitt aging, the Jays have made a smart philosophical move and decided to at least dabble in the high-end pitching market, with Fried potentially as a target.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Injuries got in the way of it a bit, but Fried’s ERA across the 2022 and 2023 seasons was an elite 2.50 across 44 starts.
7—SS Willy Adames, MIL, age-29***
Milwaukee Brewers
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 6
MITCHELL: 7
2024 fWAR: 4.8
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Willy Adames is a highly underrated player. He is a solid defender at shortstop and a slugger at the plate. Plus, he is a great young man. He is a leader and tremendous representative of an organization. Adames does strike out quite a bit, but he has 30-homer power and he takes his walks. He drove in 112 runs in 2024 and scored 93, while slugging 65 extra base hits. The Brewers would love to have him back but he will likely be priced out of their market as is often the case with their own free agents.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: Adames signs with the Braves for six years and $138 million.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: For me, personally, after the trio of Soto/Sasaki/Burnes at the top, you can make arguments for the next five guys on this list as the fourth-best free agent and Adames might be the slight favourite. Given his position and power, some even have him firmly as the second-best option on the entire market if you remove Sasaki and like the profile better than the top starting pitchers. Spending time with the Rays and Brewers has kept Adames under the radar at times, but it was really hard to ignore a 2024 season that saw him post a career-best 32 home runs and pile up 4.8 fWAR. With the glove, Adames is divisive, posting above average range metrics at times, but Defensive Runs Saved killed him this year with a minus-16 mark. That came on the heels of plus-9 and plus-8 figures in 2022 and 2023, so you can likely split the difference and just say Adames is a solid shortstop. The Jays have a shortstop for now, but they’ve checked in on stars at Bo Bichette’s position before.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: At 119, Adames’ wRC+ positioned him seventh offensively amongst MLB shortstops last season, just ahead of Elly De La Cruz (118 wRC+).
8—3B Alex Bregman, HOU, age-31***
Alex Bregman Houston Astros
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 7
MITCHELL: 8
2024 fWAR: 4.1
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Alex Bregman has been a consistently good player in his career. His career 132 OPS+ means he has been 32 per cent better than average. He is solid defensively and a steady offensive player. He doesn’t have a ton of thump but in the right ballpark his pull-side power can pay dividends, as it has in Houston. He fiddled around with his swing in the off-season and it took him some time to get back on track this year. But he got there. He is a clutch player and has 19 career postseason homers in 99 games. He has expressed a willingness to play second base as well. Astros general manager, Dana Brown has said that it is his priority to keep Bregman in Houston. But Bregman is a Boras client so he’ll likely take the biggest contract. I expect the Astros, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Tigers to make offers.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: Bregman signs back with the Astros for six years and $156 million.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: As the clear cut best third baseman available, Bregman was already going to have a huge number of suitors. His agent, Scott Boras, may have helped add a few more with the news that the 31-year-old may be willing to move to second base, where his glove and bat would both play very well in a Marcus Semien mould. Bregman fits what the Jays like and need in so many ways. First of all, there’s a history of luring big name Houston Astros with big money, while there are also holes at both third and second base that Bregman could fill. With the Jays, he’d be more of a hot corner option and his well-rounded, low-strikeout ways are a skill the Ross Atkins-led front office has valued in the past. He may sit third on this list in terms of position players, but he also might be the safest of the group.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Bregman’s 118 wRC+ was fifth amongst 3B in 2024, but also his lowest full-season mark since 2017.
9—OF Anthony Santander, BAL, age-30***
Baltimore Orioles
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 10
MITCHELL: 11
2024 fWAR: 3.3
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Anthony Santander is a switch-hitting corner outfielder with big time power. His 44 homers this year were the third highest total behind Aaron Judge (58) and Shohei Ohtani (54). Santander is a solid defender as well in right field with a gun for an arm. Santander does not strike out much for a big power hitter. He puts the ball in play. Plus, being a switch-hitter, he fits in well to protect middle of the lineup bats because opposing managers know he can flip sides of the plate. The Orioles would like to bring him back considering he was one of their most productive offensive players on a team whose offensive disappeared at times. His season will likely price him out of the Orioles market. Santander will be a fallback option for those that lose out on Juan Soto. The Orioles, Giants, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners, and Guardians all make sense.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Yankees sign him to a six-year, $150 million deal.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: The dream for any player is tying in their platform year into a career season numbers-wise, and that’s exactly what Santander was able to do this summer, bashing 44 homers, striking out less than 20 per cent of the time, and posting a career-best 3.3 fWAR. Now, teams will have to decide if that’s the peak or if there’s more in the tank as the switch-hitter enters his 30s. It’s a similar profile to Alonso in that he needs to crush for power if he’s going to live up to a contract because he’s not going to provide much else. The biggest red flag is that Santander is already a below-average corner outfielder and he’s not going to get any better with age. With that said, a team better have some DH time available, which the Blue Jays do. We all know the Jays need power, but are they willing to pay premium prices for it?
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Santander’s 105 homers over the past three seasons sit sixth in baseball, and only nine players have hit more than 100 during that timeframe.
10—OF Teoscar Hernandez, LAD, age-32***
Teoscar Hernandez Los Angeles Dodgers
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 9
MITCHELL: 12
2024 fWAR: 3.5
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Teoscar Hernandez is a good offensive player who can be very good to great if he is in a lineup with other strong hitters. He is better served as the guy who cleans up the leftovers on the bases than the guy who is counted on as a main run producer. He fed off of the energy and approaches of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Max Muncy in the Dodgers lineup this season. His is just adequate defensively but in left field he didn’t hurt L.A. too much this season. He is a fun-loving happy spirit in the clubhouse. There will be plenty of interest in his right-handed power this year. He, along with Santander, will be fallbacks for those who have Juan Soto as Plan A. Santander probably will have a bit more interest because of his switch-hitting. The Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles, Braves, Giants, Guardians, will all have eyes on Hernandez.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Dodgers will re-sign him for five years and $115 million.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: A name and skillset that does not need introducing to the Jays fan base, Hernandez was forced to take a one-year deal last off-season after a meh 2023 campaign with the Seattle Mariners. The one-year pact worked out swimmingly for Hernandez, who won the home run derby, grabbed a World Series ring, and now hits the open market once again with a .272/.339/.501 slash line and 33 homers on his resume. The profile is the same as Santander and frustrated Jays fans might need a reminder that Hernandez is also a below-average defensive outfielder who needs to crush to bring value. The Jays and Hernandez’s camp couldn’t come close to aligning on value the last time they tried to negotiate a contract, leading to the trade and making it hard to see it happening this time unless one side’s evaluation has dramatically changed. Despite all that, there’s no doubt he’d be a fit in a LF/DH role.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Hernandez’s 134 wRC+ would’ve been second-best on the 2024 Jays behind Vladdy’s 165 mark, while his 33 bombs would’ve led the team.
11—SP Jack Flaherty, LAD, age-29
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 15
MITCHELL: 9
2024 fWAR: 3.2
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Jack Flaherty had to sign a one-year, $14 million deal in 2024 after a sub-par 2023 with St. Louis and Baltimore. He was having a nice bounce-back season with Detroit in 2024 before being traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. He was fantastic for the Dodgers and helped them win the World Series. But remember, he ended up in pinstripes at the deadline but the Yankees’ doctor was not comfortable with his medical reports which nixed the deal. Flaherty pitched well in L.A. and mostly looked healthy despite having deficits in his fastball velocity at times. It will be interesting how teams evaluate his overall health. The Dodgers, Tigers, Giants, Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Angels, and Braves will all consider Flaherty.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Tigers sign Flaherty to a three-year deal for $66 million.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: On my personal rankings, the second tier of arms for me is made up of Flaherty and Shane Bieber, two pitchers who maybe carry Cy Young ceilings. Flaherty looked like that for much of 2024, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen that level of dominance. Flaherty posted a 2.75 ERA and 4.7 fWAR way back in 2019, but then spent four seasons as a completely average starter with a 4.42 ERA and just 3.3 combined WAR across his next 299 innings. This year, Flaherty found his control, dropped his walk rate to a career best 5.9 per cent and will now reap the rewards in free agency. This one would scare me, but it could also pay off big if this is the level he’s going to pitch at for the next couple of seasons.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: 196.1 innings is Flaherty’s career high, but that came back in 2019. He reached 162 in 2024.
12—SP Sean Manaea, NYM, age-33***
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 13
MITCHELL: 14
2024 fWAR: 2.8
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Sean Manaea remade himself this year by lowering his arm slot. His Mets played the Braves and Manaea saw Chris Sale’s low three-quarter delivery and decided it could work for him. He was right. The lefty had a 12-6 record with a 3.47 ERA. He became the Mets’ best pitcher down the stretch. He had signed a one-year deal for $14.5 million with a player option for a second year. It is not a surprise that he declined the option as he put himself in a position for a multi-year deal. Just about every team will have interest in Manaea as his price point and years will fit most every budget. He will pitch next year at 33 years old, which will keep the length of the deal reasonable.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Mets re-sign him for three years and $57 million.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: Manaea has felt like a pitcher one tweak away from a breakout and while it took years for that to happen, it looks like it actually did midway through 2024 when he changed his release point and started getting high-end results. He timed up a 3.47 ERA season and a career-high 32 starts with his platform year, and now the lefty is likely to find a nice multi-year deal slid in front of him soon. If a team is shopping for a southpaw starter this winter, Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi are a pretty comfortable second tier behind Snell and Fried. If the Jays are looking to give out another Chris Bassitt-level contract around three years and $63 million, this is the start of that market.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: According to Statcast, Manaea utilizes six different pitches, and four of them — sinker, sweeper, four-seam and slider — held hitters to batting averages under .201.
13—SP Yusei Kikuchi, HOU, age-34
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 12
MITCHELL: 15
2024 fWAR: 3.5
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Yusei Kikuchi is an interesting free agent. He was just pretty good with the Jays (4-9, 4.75 ERA) before being traded at the deadline to the Astros. Once he got to Houston (5-1, 2.70 ERA) he pitched like an ace. The Astros got Kikuchi to throw mostly four-seam fastballs up in the zone and sweepers down. He threw far fewer splits in Houston and he became very effective. Kikuchi has always been an enigma; he has the stuff of a number one starter but the consistency of a number four starter. The Astros, Guardians, Twins, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox, and Braves all fit.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Astros liked what they saw and will bring Kikuchi back on a two-year deal with an option for $18 million per year.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: Given the stuff, everyone has been waiting on a Kikuchi breakout for years now and it sort of happened in 2024 as he finally seemed to find a mix that worked when he was traded to Houston for a pretty solid haul at the deadline. Even though he’s heading into his age-34 season, Kikuchi could have a career year in him yet, which might show up in a bidding war this winter as pitch modelling teams come calling thinking they can finally unlock an ace over the course of a full campaign. There’s no doubt the stuff is to that level, it’s just the frustrating inconsistency and constant tinkering with his arsenal that highlighted his time in Toronto. The three-year, $36-million deal the Jays signed him to ended up being great value in the end.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Blessed with a lively heater, Kikuchi’s four-seamer averaged a career-high 95.6 mph in 2024.
14—1B Christian Walker, AZ, age-34***
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 11
MITCHELL: 19
2024 fWAR: 3.0
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Christian Walker is a highly underrated player; he is a Gold Glove defender and a big power bat. He has 30-homer power without a ton of swing and miss. He can sniff out RBIs and is a legitimate run producer. He is a clutch hitter and a leader. In addition, he has owned the Dodgers with 27 career homers in just 90 games as a member of the Diamondbacks. He is a bit older so teams will have to evaluate how he will age in determining the right length of a deal. The Diamondbacks, Mets, Yankees, Tigers, Astros, and Giants are all really good fits for Walker.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Mets sign Walker to a three-year, $63 million deal to replace Pete Alonso.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: While cold corner bats typically find a muted market in free agency, Walker’s case is unique this winter. He’s helped by the fact he’s a clear-cut second behind Alonso, but the real intrigue in his profile revolves around elite first base defence, which isn’t usually something teams are clamouring for. It doesn’t hurt, though, and considering Walker’s ability to consistently pop 30-plus homers, it’s an interesting skillset available for the handful of teams that do need a first base upgrade.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Thanks to his elite glove, Walker is sixth amongst first basemen in WAR since 2022 at 10.8, just ahead of Vladdy’s 10.1 fWAR.
15—SS Ha-Seong Kim, SD, age-29
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 18
MITCHELL: 13
2024 fWAR: 2.6
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Ha-Seong Kim is a very good baseball player. He is a top-notch defensive shortstop and one of the most fundamentally sound players in the game. His offensive game has continued to improve each year as he has made the adjustment to the high velocity fastball that he almost never saw in the KBO. He has some pop in his bat and he can run with an ability to steal a base as well. He had should surgery on his throwing arm at the end of the season, so he won’t likely be ready for Opening Day. He isn’t overly concerned about it as he declined his part of a mutual option for $8 million. Kim will be highly sought after because he has a good baseball IQ and brings offence and speed with top flight defensive skills. The Giants, Padres, Dodgers, Brewers, and Tigers are all interested.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Giants sign Kim to a four-year, $52 million deal.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: If it weren’t for shoulder surgery and all the questions that come with that, Kim would definitely be a top 10 option for me in this market. I was irrationally high on him back in 2020 — we had him at No. 8 overall on the top 50 — and pegged him as a Jays target then, and I’m going to again now. I’ll admit, four years ago I thought there was going to be a touch more pop, but other than that Kim has come as billed, producing a total of 10.9 fWAR across his four seasons in San Diego. The high water mark was a fully healthy 2023 campaign that saw Kim hit 17 homers and steal 38 bases, all while displaying above-average glovework at three different infield spots. Kim could be a huge value for a team willing to sacrifice maybe half of next year as he recovers and then finds his footing off the torn labrum, or Kim could simply take a one-year deal and prove his worth in order to get a more lucrative deal next winter. He once again makes all the sense in the world for the Jays as a player who can be installed at second or third base, while also potentially taking over at short in 2026 if Bichette walks as a free agent.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: Plus-48 is Kim’s Defensive Runs Saved total over four seasons, showing impressive glovework at three positions.
16—SP Shane Bieber, CLE, age-30
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 25
MITCHELL: 10
2024 fWAR: 0.8
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Bieber missed almost the entirety of the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery. His elbow had been bothering him for a couple of years and he finally had to go under the knife. But the former Cy Young award winner is still just 30 years old. He won’t likely be ready for opening day. It will take a creative contract with incentives and potential vesting options or player options to find the right deal. He is a great teammate and would be a nice addition to a younger pitching staff that needs a leader. The Guardians will certainly have interest in their former ace, but so will the Tigers, Twins, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Mets, Reds, Braves and Rangers.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Boston Red Sox sign Bieber to a two-year deal for $20 million with incentives to get the deal to $40 million and a vesting option for a third year.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: It’s easy to make the Cleveland connection here, but even though there’s some familiarity, the current Jays front office regime was already in Toronto by the time Bieber was drafted in 2016. With that said, there are common philosophies between what the organizations are drawn to and one of them is the ability to provide consistent innings every fifth day, something Bieber might be ready to do once again coming off the Tommy John surgery that limited him to just two starts in 2024. Somewhat similar to Jack Flaherty above, there have been blips during Bieber’s career, but when healthy he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball. There were signs to begin 2024 that his stuff may be returning, but TJ wiped that out. Bieber should be ready to go in May or June and he’s essentially my favourite buy-low SP target this winter past the elite top tier.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: For 92 starts from 2019 through 2022, Bieber posted a 2.91 ERA as a perennial Cy Young candidate.
17—OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS, age-30
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 19
MITCHELL: 17
2024 fWAR: 2.5
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Tyler O’Neill had a nice bounce back season after being unceremoniously dumped by the St. Louis Cardinals last off-season. He had 31 home runs in just 113 games. He is a power-lifting, power-hitting brute who can bully the baseball. He runs well for a big guy and is an average defender. He does swing and miss quite a bit but he will also take his walks. He can hit anywhere in a lineup. The Red Sox will certainly have interest in him again but so will the Guardians, Tigers, Braves, Blue Jays, Reds, Giants, Dodgers, and Padres.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: O’Neill will sign with the Reds for three years and $30 million.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: At this stage of his career, O’Neill is known for four things — hitting homers, hitting the weights, hitting into a slump, and, usually, hitting the IL. All of those things rang true in his first and maybe only season in Boston as O’Neill was able to rebuild his value by hitting 31 homers in only 113 games, but also showing all his red flags. The first is the lengthy injury history but it extends to long slumps even when healthy, in addition to some extreme platoon splits that resulted in a 1.179 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2024, but just a .693 mark against righties. The Jays didn’t seem to be overly interested in O’Neill last winter when he was available via trade, but they may be more desperate for power this time around.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: O’Neill’s strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season was 34.7 per cent.
18—SP Walker Buehler, LAD, age-31
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 23
MITCHELL: 16
2024 fWAR: -0.2
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Walker Buehler showed flashes of being the ace of a staff early in his career. He was overpowering and dominant. He proved to be a big-game playoff pitcher early in his career as well but over the past couple of years as he approached free agency he had Tommy John surgery and recovered slowly. He was not great when he came back this year as he was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA. He gave up five runs in a division series start against the Padres but then posted 10 scoreless innings across the League Championship Series and World Series, including recording the final three outs in Game 5. His stuff played up as the games meant more. He started to look a bit more like the Walker Buehler from the past. But will that be enough to change how teams perceive him in free agency? The Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Astros, Guardians, Tigers, Twins, Orioles, Red Sox, and Rays will all take a look. There will be a lot of interest but everyone will be trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Buehler will be better served signing a one-year deal like Flaherty did last year.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Orioles sign Buehler to a one-year deal for $14 million.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: At various points over the last few weeks as this I put together my list, Buehler was in a cohort with Flaherty, Bieber and even Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino as arms I could see putting it all together and having a Cy Young-type season. Most of them have already done it, and with a pair of 5-plus WAR seasons already on his resume, Buehler is one of them. The issue, however, is the stuff did not look right all year long, until a couple of postseason moments reminded everyone that there still could be a huge ceiling here. Buehler hasn’t been good since 2021, but another year removed from his 2023 TJ might be all he needs. Sort of like Bieber, I’d love to see the Jays take a swing at the upside here, but it all depends what the market looks like.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: In the exact same vein as Flaherty and Bieber above, Buehler has been dominant in the past, posting a 2.82 ERA across 94 starts from 2018 through 2021.
19—OF Jurickson Profar, SD, age-32
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 21
MITCHELL: 18
2024 fWAR: 4.3
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Jurickson Profar had a career season (.280/.380/.459) in 2024. He slugged 24 homers and drove in 85 runs while scoring 94. He had a 134 OPS+. He has always played well as a member of the Padres and not quite as well elsewhere. He is a contact hitter who also takes his walks. He is primarily a left fielder although in a pinch can play first base. There will be a lot of interest in Profar because the price point will be right and he is a contact hitter. The teams that advanced in the post-season were among the better contact hitting teams. It would make sense for the Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Mariners, Phillies, Yankees, and Braves to check in on the 31-year-old.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Mariners will sign Profar for three years and $30 million.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: Hilariously, Profar re-enters the free agent market yet again this winter coming off a career year, which was not the case a year ago when he was one of the worst players in baseball in 2023 and could barely find a job until the Padres came calling with a one-year, $1-million deal a day before spring training started. Of course, baseball is going to baseball at times and all Profar did was go out and bash, putting up a .280/.380/.459 slash line with a career-best 24 homers and a 139 wRC+. Does any team believe he can do that again? Probably not. But he’s also likely getting multiple years and a pretty comfy contract one year after being on the scrap heap.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: In his 11th big-league campaign this past year, Profar posted 4.3 fWAR. In his previous 10 seasons, he combined for a total of 4.9.
20—SP Luis Severino, NYM, age-31***
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 16
MITCHELL: 23
2024 fWAR: 2.1
PHILLIPS’ FITS: Luis Severino had a nice comeback season moving from the Bronx to Queens, going 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA. He maintained the quality of his stuff all season long. He was strong and durable, taking the ball every fifth day, making 31 starts. He pitched on a one-year deal for $13 million in 2024 and will look for a multi-year payday now. The Mets are interested in bringing him back but will face competition to do so as the Nationals, Phillies, Red Sox, Orioles, Guardians, Tigers, Twins, Rangers, Giants and Angels will all desire him as well.
PHILLIPS’ CONTRACT PREDICTION: The Mets re-sign Severino to a three-year, $45 million deal.
MITCHELL’S TAKE: I’ve seen Severino look absolutely unhittable in person on a couple of occasions, but I have to keep reminding myself that was more than half a decade ago. But the fact that he’s still just 30 and is now coming off his healthiest season in six years, I may be back on the Severino upside train. The stuff isn’t as crisp and elite as it once was, resulting in a diminished K rate, but Severino made 31 starts this year and pitched well, posting a decent ERA with a 46 per cent groundball rate. Right now, he’s a quality No. 4 in a good rotation. Is there more? I might be willing to pay the price on a two-year deal to find out. Three would be a gamble.
MITCHELL’S KEY STAT: A common theme on this list, at one point Severino was one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a total of 11 fWAR across the 2017 and 2018 seasons with a 3.18 ERA at the age of 23-24.
21—SP Nathan Eovaldi, TEX, age-35
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 14
MITCHELL: 25
2024 fWAR: 2.7
QUICK TAKE: Heading into his 14th season, Eovaldi has settled in as a quality mid-rotation arm who would help just about any contender.
22—2B Gleyber Torres, NYY, age-28
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 20
MITCHELL: 20
2024 fWAR: 1.7
QUICK TAKE: One of the more intriguing buy-low candidates at the age of 28, Torres looked like a different hitter in the second half with a 124 wRC+.
23—SP Nick Martinez, CIN, age-34***
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 17
MITCHELL: 26
2024 fWAR: 3.5
QUICK TAKE: Martinez is one of the rare arms who has proven he can bounce back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation and excel in both roles, but he’s earned a full-time rotation shot with someone.
24—SP Tomoyuki Sugano, JPN, age-35
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 24
MITCHELL: 24
2024 fWAR: N/A
QUICK TAKE: Sugano almost came over to North America a few years ago and the Blue Jays had interest then. As a command-driven back-end starter, Sugano will come at a fair price.
25—RP Tanner Scott, SD, age-30
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 22
MITCHELL: 28
2024 fWAR: 1.6
QUICK TAKE: The top reliever tier starts here with Scott, whose age and big time strikeout upside should secure him a nice multi-year deal.
26—RP Jeff Hoffman, PHI, age-32
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 28
MITCHELL: 27
2024 fWAR: 2.0
QUICK TAKE: Hoffman is intriguing both as a closer and maybe even as a potential conversion back to the rotation if a team wants to gamble on the multi-pitch arsenal.
27—RP Carlos Estevez, PHI, age-32
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 27
MITCHELL: 29
2024 fWAR: 1.2
QUICK TAKE: Estevez’s age and durability will be working for him, while his middling K-rate will likely work against him. But it’s impossible to argue with the results.
28—DH Joc Pederson, AZ, age-33
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 37
MITCHELL: 21
2024 fWAR: 3.0
QUICK TAKE: It feels like Pederson is on this list every year as a left-handed DH option, but he has one job that he does very well — crush right-handed pitching.
29—RP Clay Holmes, NYY, age-32
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 29
MITCHELL: 30
2024 fWAR: 1.2
QUICK TAKE: Holmes has been up and down under the closer microscope in New York, but the sinker is filthy when it’s on.
30—RP Kirby Yates, TEX, age-38
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 26
MITCHELL: 35
2024 fWAR: 1.9
QUICK TAKE: A 1.17 ERA and 33 saves is a good way to get multiple offers, even at the advanced age of 38. Yates is the start of the REALLY old guy tier, which has seven of the next nine names checking at age-37 and older.
31—SP Justin Verlander, HOU, age-42
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 32
MITCHELL: 32
2024 fWAR: 0.7
QUICK TAKE: Verlander’s Hall-of-Fame career might be just about done, but there are worse arms to hand a No. 5 rotation spot to.
32—RP Blake Treinen, LAD, age-37
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 30
MITCHELL: 34
2024 fWAR: 1.0
QUICK TAKE: You can shuffle up just about any reliever up to Treinen as your favourite if you’d like. Like Yates, Treinen was unreal at his elevated age age with a 1.93 ERA.
33—SP Nick Pivetta, BOS, age-32***
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 48
MITCHELL: 22
2024 fWAR: 2.0
QUICK TAKE: Pivetta has teased with swing-and-miss stuff his entire career. The largest ranking discrepancy on this list this year, Mitchell’s ranking reflects that upside, while Phillips believes he is what he is at this point.
34—C Danny Jansen, BOS, age-30
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 31
MITCHELL: 39
2024 fWAR: 0.5
QUICK TAKE: Jansen had a chance to sit top 20 or so on this list as the clear-cut best catcher available, but instead he cratered his platform year with a .206 batting average and just 0.5 fWAR.
35—RP David Robertson, TEX, age-40
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 36
MITCHELL: 36
2024 fWAR: 1.9
QUICK TAKE: Another old reliever who’s still getting results year after year.
36—SP Max Scherzer, TEX, age-40
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 44
MITCHELL: 31
2024 fWAR: 0.6
QUICK TAKE: Similar to Verlander, he’s no longer in high demand as an ace, but if he can stay healthy he’ll help a contender’s rotation.
37—SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD, age-37
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 42
MITCHELL: 33
2024 fWAR: 0.6
QUICK TAKE: Kershaw continues to simply re-up his Hall-of-Fame career with the Dodgers, which is where he belongs.
38—1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL, age-37
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 33
MITCHELL: 46
2024 fWAR: 1.1
QUICK TAKE: A former MVP who’ll be looking to turn back time, Goldschmidt looked like a shell of himself in 2024, but someone will probably hand him everyday at-bats to see what’s left.
39—OF Michael Conforto, SF, age-32
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 39
MITCHELL: 43
2024 fWAR: 1.3
QUICK TAKE: Now even further removed from shoulder surgery in 2022, Conforto showed the most power he has since that injury and posted a quiet 112 wRC+.
40—2B Jorge Polanco, SEA, age-31
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 43
MITCHELL: 41
2024 fWAR: 0.3
QUICK TAKE: The M’s had a lot go wrong with their offence in 2024 and the acquisition of Polanco was one of them. That 33-homer season from 2021 is a distant memory now.
41—OF Max Kepler, MIN, age-32
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 38
MITCHELL: 48
2024 fWAR: 1.0
QUICK TAKE: Kepler falls into the Joc Pederson/Michael Conforto tier of left-handed bats with pop who don’t do much else. Kepler is the most well-rounded of the bunch.
42—2B Hyeseong Kim, KBO, age-26
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 46
MITCHELL: 42
2024 fWAR: N/A
QUICK TAKE: A speed and defence profile, Kim profiles as a utility player and has even less power than Ha-Seong Kim, who hit 30 bombs in his final KBO season but has maxed out at 17 here. Hyeseong’s KBO high is 11.
43—SP Charlie Morton, ATL, age-41
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 34
MITCHELL: 54
2024 fWAR: 1.1
QUICK TAKE: Oh look, another reliable starter who has somehow managed to pitch into his forties. Like Kershaw in L.A., he hasn’t wanted to leave Atlanta.
44—RP Aroldis Chapman, PIT, age-37
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 57
MITCHELL: 37
2024 fWAR: 1.1
QUICK TAKE: Even into his late-30s, Chapman is still pumping gas, walking everyone in sight, and getting pretty good results.
45—RP Kenley Jansen, BOS, age-37
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 58
MITCHELL: 38
2024 fWAR: 1.4
QUICK TAKE: Jansen’s bread-and-butter cutter is still inducing weak contact and he’s now at 447 career saves.
46—SP Spencer Turnbull, PHI, age-32
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 49
MITCHELL: 51
2024 fWAR: 0.7
QUICK TAKE: There aren’t a ton of under-the-radar buy-low rotation options, but Turnbull is one of them.
47—SP Matthew Boyd, CLE, age-34
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 52
MITCHELL: 49
2024 fWAR: 0.9
QUICK TAKE: Now recovered from Tommy John, Boyd is another sneaky buy-low target for teams.
48—RP Yimi Garcia, SEA, age-34
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 35
MITCHELL: 67
2024 fWAR: 0.4
QUICK TAKE: Garcia’s velocity spiked last season and he was terrific before elbow problems ruined his second half.
49—SP Frankie Montas, MIL, age-32
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 50
MITCHELL: 53
2024 fWAR: 1.4
QUICK TAKE: Montas can haul some decent innings at the back of a contender’s rotation. If you squint, maybe there’s some upside.
50—SP Kyle Gibson, STL, age-37
Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 47
MITCHELL: 56
2024 fWAR: 1.5
QUICK TAKE: Boring and safe, Gibson is a fine low-upside No. 5.
————
51—SP Jose Quintana, NYM, age-36 (1.0 fWAR)
52—C Carson Kelly, TEX, age-30 (1.8 fWAR)
53—DH Eloy Jimenez, BAL, age-28 (-0.9 fWAR)
54—3B Yoan Moncada, CHW, age-30 (0.3 fWAR)
55—DH J.D. Martinez, NYM, age-37 (0.6 fWAR)
56—SP Andrew Heaney, TEX, age-34 (2.2 fWAR)
57—OF Alex Verdugo, NYY, age-29 (0.6 fWAR)
58—OF Randal Grichuk, AZ, age-33 (1.5 fWAR)
59—SP Shinnosuke Ogasawara, JPN, age-27 (N/A)
60—SP Alex Cobb, CLE, age-37 (0.3 fWAR)
61—RP/SP Mike Soroka, CHW, age-27 (0.4 fWAR)
62—SP Lance Lynn, STL, age-38 (1.3 fWAR)
63—OF Jesse Winker, NYM, age-31 (1.3 fWAR)
64—1B Carlos Santana, MIN, age-39 (3.0 fWAR)
65—DH Justin Turner, SEA, age-40 (1.2 fWAR)
66—SP Trevor Williams, WSH, age-33 (2.0 fWAR)
67—SP Kyle Hart, KBO, age-32 (N/A)
68—2B/3B Jose Iglesias, NYM, age-35 (2.5 fWAR)
69—RP Paul Sewald, AZ, age-35 (0.3 fWAR)
70—RP AJ Minter, ATL, age-31 (-0.1 fWAR)
71—RP Jose Leclerc, TEX, age-31 (0.8 fWAR)
72—RP Chris Martin, BOS, age-39 (0.9 fWAR)
73—C Kyle Higashioka, SD, age-35 (1.6 fWAR)
74—1B Kazuma Okamoto, age-28, (N/A)
75—RP Daniel Hudson, LAD, age-38 (0.2 fWAR)