Morning Coffee: Allen, Bills look to remain undefeated with win over Jaguars

It’s the final stop for Week 3 of the NFL season.

Well, technically it’s two stops, as we get not one, but two Monday Night Football games this week.

First up, the Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars in a key early season AFC showdown for both teams.

The Bills can improve to 3-0 and take an early two-game lead atop the AFC East as a 5.5-point favourite in prime time in front of their home fans.

On the flip side, the Jaguars are a desperate team as they try to avoid falling to 0-3 for the third time in a decade. 

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals are also looking to avoid an 0-3 start as a 7.5-point home favourite against the Washington Commanders.

Jacksonville and Washington aren’t expected to win tonight.

Then again, NFL underdogs of at least 5.5 points or more are a combined 9-6 outright and 13-2 against the spread so far this season.

In case you missed it, the New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos, and the Carolina Panthers all won outright on Sunday as underdogs of 5.5 points or more.

With the Giants win over the Cleveland Browns, the most popular Survivor Pool picks in each of the first three weeks of the season have all lost.

Of course, the Bengals were a popular pick in Survivor Pools this week and will be a popular parlay leg for Monday Night Football.

What could possibly go wrong tonight in Cincinnati?

It’s Monday morning, so let’s get to my five biggest takeaways from Sunday and a FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday September 23rd, 2024.

Five Takeaways From NFL Sunday Week 3

Survivor Pool Chaos

I highlighted it off the top, but let’s start with a special shout out to anybody still alive in Survivor Pools.

The three most popular Survivor Pool picks in each of the first three weeks all lost.

Favourites of 5.5 points or more are a combined 6-9 straight up and just 2-13 against the spread.

Favourites of six or more points are 5-7 straight up and just 1-11 against the spread.

Of course, we’ll wrap up Week 3 tonight with two more games that feature a favourite of 5.5 points or more.

The Bills have been bet up from -3.5 to -5.5 at FanDuel.

The Bengals line has ticked up from -7 to -7.5. 

The Under Has Been A Good Bet Early This Season

The under has gone a combined 10-4 to start Week 3 and is 28-18 so far this season.

Furthermore, when the total has been in the 50’s, the under has gone a perfect 4-0.

Betting on big underdogs and the under has been a winning strategy early on this NFL season.

Dalton Leads Panthers To Upset Win

I’m not trying to pile on here but it’s worth reiterating how poorly Bryce Young had played for the Carolina Panthers before he was benched.

In case you missed it, I wrote about what led to Young being benched last week.

Andy Dalton went 26-of-36 for 319 yards and threw three touchdown passes as he led Carolina to a 36-22 win over the Las Vegas Raiders as a +210 underdog.

Young will get another chance in the NFL eventually, but the fact that the Panthers scored more points in the win over Las Vegas than they scored in their previous four games with Young combined is a testament to the fact that a QB change was desperately needed.

The Packers Are A Legitimate Super Bowl Contender

There was a lot of talk about the Green Bay Packers as a potentially “overhyped” team heading into the season.

Well, the team narrowly avoided disaster when Jordan Love’s injury wasn’t as bad as it initially looked.

Since then, they’ve gone 2-0 as an underdog with Malik Willis at quarterback, which is a testament to both their talent and the outstanding job that the coaching staff has done this season.

Head coach Matt LaFleur is 20-15 straight up and 24-11 against the spread as an underdog – the best win percentages by any NFL coach in the Super Bowl era. 

Green Bay’s success with Willis at quarterback will help make sure that Love isn’t rushed back from injury.

When Love returns, the Packers will be a Super Bowl contender.

The NFC North Is Loaded

The Packers and Detroit Lions are 2-1 to start the season.

Both teams are looking up at the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings absolutely beat up C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in a 34-7 win as a +108 underdog on Sunday.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell has the offence humming with Sam Darnold at quarterback, while defensive coordinator Brian Flores deserves to be in the conversation for Assistant Coach of the Year.

The Chicago Bears still have some work to do – particularly on the offensive line.

Still, even if the Bears aren’t a playoff contender yet, the NFC North is the conference’s best division.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night Football

Joe Burrow is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread on Monday Night Football. 

After watching the film from Cincinnati and Washington’s first two games, I’m confident Burrow and the Bengals will improve to 5-0 straight up on Monday Night Football tonight.

I’ll lock in Cincinnati moneyline as the first leg of my FanDuel Best Bet.

For the second leg, I’ll take James Cook 40+ rushing yards against the Jaguars.

Cook has averaged 15.0 carries for 74.5 rushing yards in two games this season.

Remember, he didn’t play much in the second half of last week’s blowout win over the Miami Dolphins, finishing with just 11 carries.

He should be fresh for tonight’s prime-time game.

In Week 2, Cleveland Browns running backs Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman combined for 106 rushing yards on 21 carries for an average of 5.0 yards per carry.

An SGP+ with the Bengals to win outright and Cook to rush for 40 or more yards can be found at -148 at FanDuel. 

For the third leg, I’ll add Bills moneyline to push the SGP+ to +115 odds.

The Jaguars are a desperate team right now, but they are also 1-7 in their past eight games dating back to last season – tied with the Panthers for the worst record in the NFL over that span.

If it were a lesser opponent, maybe I would shy away from betting against Jacksonville in this spot.

Josh Allen is playing at an elite level and the Bills have a chance to make a statement at home in prime time.

I’ll take the Bengals moneyline, Bills moneyline, and Cook to record 40+ rushing yards as an SGP+ at +115 odds as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.