It’s not often the NFL saves the best for last, but Week 17 happens to be one of those rare occasions. That’s because the biggest game of the slate goes down tonight on Monday Night Football, as the Bengals host the Bills.

Buffalo enters play two wins away from clinching the AFC’s number one seed, while no team in the AFC is hotter than Cincy at the moment. The Bengals have won seven straight and can secure a division title with a victory.

Teams: Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

Line: Bills -1.5

Total: 49.5

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

As good as Cincinnati has been down the stretch, Buffalo has nearly been as dominant. The Bills have reeled off six straight wins, and given the recent form of both, this could be an AFC Championship Game preview.

From a DVOA perspective, the Bills remain the NFL’s top team, while the Bengals rank outside the top-six. Buffalo ranks fourth in points per game and second in total offence, while only the 49ers boast a better scoring defence.

A big part of the Bills defensive success has been their top-five pass rush, and that unit is set up to wreak havoc on Burrow tonight. La’el Collins, one of Cincy’s most trusted offensive linemen is out, leaving Burrow vulnerable.

Burrow has absorbed 42 sacks already this season, and has thrown four picks in his last three games. Of course, those INT’s have been offset by 9 TD and over 800 passing yards during that stretch, but forcing turnovers will be key to slowing down this Bengals attack.

Another key will be limiting the production of Ja’Marr Chase, a task easier said than done. Chase has scored eight times in 11 games this season, while Buffalo has coughed up the eighth most yards and sixth most TD to opposing wide receivers.

On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati will be hard pressed to slow down Josh Allen both through the air and on the ground.

The Bengals rank right around league average at defending opposing QB’s, but don’t forget they play the majority of their games against AFC North opponents not exactly known for their passing attack.

On the ground, Allen has racked up seven scores already this season, to go along with 746 rushing yards. He’s put up monster rushing yard performances in each of the Bills last four games that were decided by 7 points or less, so expect plenty of rushing volume in what projects to be a tightly contested affair.

Bills vs Bengals Trends and Best Bets

The look ahead line for this matchup was a full point higher in Buffalo’s favor, and the Bills have done nothing to warrant the downgrade.

Cincinnati meanwhile, has been on a historic ATS run, but are perhaps getting too much credit here. Yes, they’ve covered seven straight games, and yes they’re 12-1 against the spread in their last 13 contests. However, they’ve been the beneficiaries of some very fortunate bounces along the way, and this Bills team is statistically better than any squad they’ve faced all season.

Allen has saved some of his best performances for the prime time stage, posting an 11-3 record under the lights during the regular season. That includes a perfect 5-0 record in 2022, with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points.

Expect the Bengals incredible cover rate to take a hit, and Buffalo to move one step closer to locking up a first round bye.

Best Bets: Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-110), Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-113), Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (+105), Tee Higgins Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (-113)