Week 16 on the NFL calendar has been yet another bloodbath for public bettors. Coming into Monday Night Football, eight of the 11 most heavily bet teams against the spread have failed to cover.

Only two teams getting 62% or more of the spread tickets have covered (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati), and the Chargers will look to join that short list as 4-point favorites tonight against the Colts.

Teams: Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts

Line: Chargers -4 

Total: 45.5

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

LA is currently drawing 66% of the ATS wagers, as they look to move one step closer to securing a playoff berth. 

The question becomes can you trust the Chargers as the road chalk, or should rely on an Indy team with nothing to play for and a new QB under centre

Chargers vs Colts Betting AnalysisThat new QB would be Nick Foles, who’s making his first start since Boxing Day in 2021. Foles hasn’t thrown a pass in a regular season game since that spot start with the Bears, and it’s fair to question what kind of chemistry he’ll have in his first appearance with Indianapolis.

The matchup certainly isn’t favorable, as LA is all of a sudden playing its best defence of the season. They’ve surrendered only 31 points total in their last two games, holding both the Dolphins and Titans under 285 total yards.

The Chargers have allowed fewer than 160 passing yards in both of those outings, and will get back star safety Derwin James from injury tonight. That should be enough to encourage betting against Foles in the player props market, as his passing yards prop (229.5) and TD prop (1.5) both appear too high.

Indy is likely to attack LA’s 25th ranked run defence, but bettors should be cautioned about putting too much faith in new starting RB Zack Moss. His rushing yards over/under prop currently sits at 59.5, a number he’s cleared only five times in his career.

Also working against Moss is a crowded Colts backfield. Yes, he’s the starter, but he won’t play on the majority of third downs and both Deon Jackson and Jordan Wilkins will steal carries.

On the other side of the ball, Justin Herbert and Co. should be able to attack a vulnerable Indy defence. The Colts just gave up over 500 total yards to Minnesota, en route to blowing the biggest lead in NFL regular season history.

Herbert will once again have his full compliment of weapons at his side, as Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are an imposing trio to defend.

Of the three, Ekeler is the most clear buy as Indy has surrendered 15 total touchdowns to enemy running backs. If you’re going to fade one, Williams has the worst matchup. He’ll see plenty of Stephon Gilmore’s coverage on the outside, and only three teams have allowed fewer receiving yards to enemy wideouts than the Colts.

Chargers vs Colts Trends and Best Bets

LA is 4-1 against the spread in primetime games this season, and 8-5-1 ATS overall. That’s the fifth best cover percentage in the NFL, but note they’re only 4-4-1 against the spread as favorites.

Indy has failed to cover in its last two primetime tilts, but is 2-0 ATS as home underdogs this season. 

If the Colts are going to cover it will likely be a low-scoring game, as this team simply doesn’t have the firepower to win a shootout. Despite putting up 36 points last week, the Colts offence scored only one touchdown. They returned both a punt and an interception for scores, while two other Minnesota turnovers set Indy up in field goal position.

The Colts offence has exceeded 20 points in only two of their previous 13 games, and should struggle to sustain drives and find the end zone against this improved Chargers defence. 

Forgo a bet against the spread tonight, and bet against Foles and Indy offence.

Best Bets:  Indianapolis Colts Under 20.5 Points (-110), Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown (-130)