After a thrilling first two days of Super Wild Card Weekend, the slate wraps up on Monday Night Football in Tampa Bay.

Tom Brady and the NFC South champion Buccaneers host the Cowboys, and will do so as 2.5 point underdogs.

The contest marks the fourth time since 2019 that TB-12 has been a playoff underdog, and the GOAT has won each of those matchups.

Early money drove this spread down from Dallas -3 to its current number, and as of Monday the betting action is nearly split down the middle.

Teams: Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Cowboys -2.5

Total: 45.5

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Buccaneers are the playoffs lone team with a losing record, while the Cowboys enter play fresh off one of their worst five-game stretches of the season.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Betting Analysis

For the bulk of the season, Tampa Bay has been a disappointment. Their offence has looked slow and sloppy, producing just 18.4 points per game. That was the lowest of any of the 14 playoff teams, and ranked 26th in the league.

Tom Brady actually led the league in passing attempts, but his 6.4 average yards per attempt was a full yard lower than last season. TB-12 threw only 25 TD in his 17 starts, which was tied for his second lowest mark since 2008.

Tampa Bay’s defence also took a step back this season, ranking closer to league average than the top of the board where we’ve been accustom to seeing them recently.

Injuries played a large part in their defensive decline, but the Bucs are getting healthy at the right time and should be close to full strength on Monday night.

That could spell trouble for Dak Prescott and Co., who has been a turnover machine in recent weeks. Prescott threw 11 interceptions over his final seven games, and finished tied for the league lead with 15 picks.

Despite the turnover woes, Dallas still averaged 31 points per contest over their final seven games. They put up monster totals against Philadelphia and Jacksonville during that stretch, but were abysmal in Week 18 versus Washington.

The Cowboys managed only 182 yards in their season finale, despite playing the majority of their starters.

Defensively, they surrendered 26 points for the third time in four outings, and that side of the ball is the greater concern.

Dallas started the year as one of the league’s premier defensive units. Micah Parsons was a DPOY contender, and the team was hovering around the top of the DVOA rankings.

Things started to change around the halfway point of the season, and over they last three weeks they rank 19th in defensive expected points added per play.

The bulk of their struggles have taken place outdoors where they’ve yielded an average of 27 points in their past four games on grass.

Monday night’s contest at Raymond James Stadium will take place outside, and the slower surface negates some of the world class speed that key defenders like Parsons possess.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Trends and Best Bets

These two teams met all the way back in Week 1, with Tampa Bay dominating 19-3. That was one of only four Bucs covers this season, as they finished a league worst 4-12-1 against the spread.

That was the worst ATS mark of Brady’s career, but TB-12 in the postseason is a different animal. Brady is 7-3 against the spread as a playoff ‘dog, and Monday will mark the first time in his career one of his teams has been catching points at home in the playoffs.

Brady is 11-2 ATS as a home ‘dog in his career, winning nine of those games outright.

Historical trends favor the Buccaneers in this contest, as does Dallas’ playoff woes.

Since 2015, home underdogs are 6-2 against the spread in the postseason.

Dallas meanwhile, is 3-10 ATS in the playoffs since 1998. They lost the lone postseason game of the Mike McCarthy era, and Prescott is winless against the spread in four career playoff starts.

Best Bets: Buccaneers +2.5 (-110), Under 45.5 (-110)