After giving the Seattle faithful a decade of incredible success, Russell Wilson returns to Lumen Field for the first time as a visitor on Monday Night Football.

It’s safe to say there’s no love loss between Wilson and the Seahawks based on all the shots fired by both sides in the media this week.

Wilson and his new Broncos teammates will be out for blood in this showdown which you can watch live on TSN, and money is currently pouring in on Denver as 6.5-point favorites.

90% of the against the spread wagers and 71% of the ATS money is currently backing the Broncos and it’s not hard to figure out why.

Teams: Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks

Line: Broncos -6.5

Total: 43.5

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Russ set up for Success

Wilson’s former team projects as one of the worst in football. The Seahawks have one of the lowest win totals heading into the season (5.5), and are one of the top-four favorites to finish with the worst record in football.

After having the ball taken out of his hands on early downs year after year by Seattle’s archaic run first scheme, Wilson is now playing under a progressive thinking offensive coach.

Nathaniel Hackett was brought over from Green Bay after enormous success with Aaron Rodgers and Co., and will maximize Wilson’s strengths.

His weapons are elite, as Courtland Sutton gives him a big-body deep threat, while Jerry Jeudy is a route running technician.

Albert Okwuegbunam provides elite size and athleticism at the tight end position, while sophomore Javonte Williams is a threat out of the backfield both on the ground and through the air.

Seattle’s defence on the other hand, projects to struggle badly. Pro Football Focus rates their defensive line as a bottom-four unit, and their secondary as one of the three worst in football heading into the season.

Russ is going to cook against his old teammates, which should put over 1.5 touchdown passes for him squarely on our radar.

Tough Sledding for the Seahawks

On the other side of the ball, you can understand why hardly anyone is running to the window to bet a team with Geno Smith under centre.
The former Jets castoff has made only five starts since he was replaced as New York’s starter in 2015, losing three of them.

He was 1-2 in three starts with Seattle while Wilson was injured last season, and struggled badly against strong defences.

Smith led the Seahawks to an average only 15 points against top-15 defenses, while absorbing 10 sacks.

He’s likely going to see a ton of pressure on Monday, as the Broncos boast a fierce pass rush led by Bradley Chubb. To make matters worse, no offensive line graded out worse than Seattle’s this offseason per PFF.

Smith still has the dynamic duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to work with in the passing game, but Denver’s secondary is strong. They project as a top-12 unit by PFF, led by former first round pick Patrick Surtain II, who didn’t yield more than 76 yards to any opposing receiver as a rookie.

Best Bets

With a shaky offensive line in front of Smith, Pete Carroll is going to want to run the ball even more than usual. The problem is, two of Seattle’s new starting offensive tackles are rookies that both came from air-rad offenses.

There should be little optimism for the Seahawks offence both in the running and passing game. As a result, we should be targeting the under on their team total.

That line currently sits at 18.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, and is a number Seattle failed to exceed seven times in 2021. The majority of those games were with Wilson under centre, who gave them far better QB play than Smith will on Monday.

Picks: Seahawks Under 19 Points (-114), Wilson Over 1.5 TD (-146)