Morning Coffee: A FanDuel best bet for Week 1 of the NFL season

The New York Jets were supposed to take flight as a legitimate Super Bowl contender following the arrival of quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 2023.

Instead, Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury on his first drive with the team, resulting in a failure to launch.

Fast-forward one year later, expectations are just as high for the Jets as a top 10 choice to win the Super Bowl.

In fact, the FanDuel traders recently installed New York as the AFC East favourite after taking some respected money on Rodgers and company to win the division.

Rodgers is the favourite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year at +200.

Running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garett Wilson are both among the top 11 choices to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

Last season, the Jets went 7-10 despite ranking dead-last in the league in EPA per drop back.

With Rodgers back at quarterback, an impressive cast of skill-position players, an upgraded offensive line, and a top 10 defence, New York’s win total is 9.5.

We’ll get our first look at this year’s Jets as an underdog in a Week 1 prime time game against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

It will be a tough test for New York on the road against the favourite to win the NFC Championship at FanDuel.

Jets fans have had to wait a long time for this one.

While I wanted to wait a few more days before revealing my first play for the 2024 NFL season, the number for Monday Night Football has been on the move at FanDuel, which has somewhat forced my hand.

My first FanDuel Best Bet for the NFL season is Jets +4.5.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday August 28^th, 2024.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Week 1 Of The NFL Season

The New York Jets are in one of the most fascinating situations of any NFL team heading into the 2024 season.

It's remarkable that they won seven games last season with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle at quarterback.

Somehow, three of those seven wins came against the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and the Houston Texans.

All three of those teams made the playoffs last season.

Despite atrocious quarterback play, New York finished in the top six in defensive EPA for the second straight year.

They’ve since added Javon Kinlaw and Haason Reddick to a defence that already featured Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley, and one of the best secondaries in the NFL led by the cornerback trio of Sauce Gardner, Michael Carter, and D.J. Reed.

Reddick might not play against San Francisco, but it will be a revenge game for Kinlaw.

It will also be a revenge game for former Niners DC and current Jets head coach Robert Saleh.

On the other side of the football, the Jets are the only team in the league with two players featured among the top 12 choices to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year in Hall and Wilson.

They’ve upgraded the offensive line with the additions of Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, and John Simpson.

They also added free agent wide receiver Mike Williams, plus rookie wide receiver Malachi Corley and rookie running back Braelon Allen.

On paper, New York is one of the most talented teams in the entire NFL.

The biggest question mark is whether a roster loaded with veterans at key positions can stay healthy enough to contend for a Super Bowl.

It’s also fair to wonder how much Rodgers has in the tank at 40-years-old after missing last season with a ruptured Achilles suffered on his fourth snap with the team.

The good news is that all signs point towards this roster being healthy for Week 1 in San Francisco.

That’s one reason why the spread has dipped at FanDuel from 49ers -6.5 to -3.5.

Per the FanDuel traders, 83 per cent of the stakes are on the Jets to cover.

There’s plenty of other factors involved.

San Francisco opened as the Super Bowl favourite at FanDuel and while they’re now the second choice to win it all behind the Kansas City Chiefs, the 49ers remain the favourite to win the NFC Championship.

At full strength, the Niners undoubtedly have one of the most talented and complete rosters in the NFC.

I’m curious about how their roster will look in Week 1.

Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t practiced with the team.

Running back Christian McCaffrey hasn’t practiced either as he continues to recover from a calf injury.

Left tackle Trent Williams will reportedly continue to hold out until his contract is reworked.

Even if all three end up playing, I don’t expect them to be in their peak form in Week 1.

On the defensive side of the football, the 49ers lost Kinlaw, Arik Armstead, Chase Young and others.

They also replaced Steve Wilks with Nick Sorenson as defensive coordinator.

San Francisco added Leonard Floyd, Yetur-Gross-Matos, and Maliek Collins to offset some of its losses, and I’m looking forward to seeing how they match up against that revamped Jets’ offensive line.

I’m also excited to see how the Jets’ defence matches up against Brock Purdy and the Niners offence, particulary if one or both of Williams and Aiyuk is out.

Then there is an offence that features Rodgers, Wilson, and Hall.

Obviously, expectations are extremely high for that trio.

Both teams are among the top 10 choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.

I believe one of them is approaching Week 1 with a little more urgency than the other.

The market seems to agree as the spread has moved from 49ers -6.5 to -3.5 at FanDuel.

I would have loved to have a ticket with New York +6.5, but unfortunately the potential for training camp and pre-season injuries kept me from betting Week 1 until after that number moved.

My first FanDuel Best Bet for the 2024 NFL season is locked in.

I’m on the Jets +4.5.

Have a great day, everyone!